Merry Christmas!!! The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 51/43 there was no rain/snow. For December Grand Rapids has a total of just 1.3” of snowfall that is -14.2” below average for this date. For the season so far just 3.2” has fallen and that is now -19.7 below average. Yesterdays low of 43 at Grand Rapids and Lansing the 45 at Holland and the 46 at Muskegon were all the 2nd warmest minimums for December 24th For today the average H/L at Grand Rapids is 34/23 the record high of 65 was set in 1982 and the record low of -3 was set in 1983 the wettest was 1.01” in thunderstorms in 1982. The most snow fall of 7.0” fell in 2017 the most on the ground was 22” in 1951 Last year the H/L was 19/17 there was 2.7” of snowfall and there was 17” on the ground at Grand Rapids.
This has been a very warm December so far with a mean of 37.6 at Grand Rapids for a departure of +6.4. At Lansing the mean of 37.4 is a departure of +7.0 and at Muskegon the mean there of 40.5 is a departure of +7.9. This December is on track to be one of the warmest and least snowy at Grand Rapids. Lansing is also on track for one of the warmest and at Muskegon they very well could see their warmest of record.
For anyone looking for cold and snow the long range guess by the CFSv2 says not so fast
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
645 AM EST MON DEC 25 2023
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST MON DEC 25 2023
- DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY -
TRENDS IN HIGH RES SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND THE HREF SUGGEST THE
MORNING AND MOST OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE DRY TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT GUIDANCE TRENDS
THE PAST 24 HRS ARE 3-6 HOURS SLOWER WITH PCPN ARRIVAL. THEREFORE
WE DO NOT EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA
UNTIL THIS EVENING.
IT WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY MILD TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50'S. SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING LIGHT FOG IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME DENSE OR WIDESPREAD GIVEN SOME BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING WHICH WILL CONTINUE. THIS WAS ABSENT YESTERDAY
MORNING WHEN FOG WAS DENSE AND WIDESPREAD.
- UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER CONTINUES TUESDAY -
IT WILL BE QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AGAIN ON TUESDAY GIVEN
SOUTHERLY FLOW WAA AND COMING OFF VERY MILD MIN TEMPS IN THE 40'S
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SPEEDS TOWARD DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST MON DEC 25 2023
- GRADUALLY TRENDING COLDER TOWARDS THE WEEKEND -
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A LESS ABRUPT TRANSITION TO COLDER
TEMPERATURES THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK. IN COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES, HAVE CONTINUED ELEVATED POPS FROM THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING GIVEN THAT TROWAL-INDUCED FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
MAY BE SLOWER TO PIVOT OUT OF THE AREA. IMPACTS WITH THIS UPTICK IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE MINIMAL GIVEN RELATIVELY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW WHOSE TIMING WILL
LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL END OF THE PRECIPITATION EVENT.
- LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS WEEKEND -
WHAT LIMITED SNOW CHANCES EXIST NOW SEEM SHIFTED TOWARDS THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME, THIS IS ALSO WHEN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE BEGINS
TO REVEAL MORE THAN ONE PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION. INTERESTINGLY, THIS IS
SEEN NOT SO MUCH IN THE CLUSTER ANALYSES AS IT IS IN THE CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE, WHOSE MEMBERS ARE LEANING MORE TOWARDS A QUICK HITTING
COLD SURGE THAT COULD RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW, MAINLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST LOWER MI IN THE EARLY MONDAY TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER, I MUST EMPHASIZE THAT THE OVERALL PATTERN FORECAST FOR THIS
WEEKEND IS FAR FROM NAILED DOWN; HENCE, ANY ATTEMPT TO DIAGNOSE
DETAILS AT THIS POINT REQUIRES A HEALTHY DOSE OF SKEPTICISM.
MERRY CHRISTMAS EVERYONE!! I hope you all had a beautiful day. We couldn’t ask for nicer weather. I remember last Christmas and how deep the snow was on our porch. 🎄
We had a wonderful Christmas, and I hope you all did too. We opened the back patio door this afternoon to get some fresh air in while we were cooking. The sun came out and the breeze was nice. It looks like most of us were +20 degrees or even higher in some areas. That’s just unbelievable.
Weather was absolutely magnificent today!! What a beautiful Christmas!! Keep these warm temps ROCKIN!!
Just played several games of pickleball with the kids, unbelievably perfect outdoor weather for Christmas! If the rain holds off we’re having a fire later, more like an early Fall day today.
Here in Michigan it is wall to wall a green Christmas with even locations in the UP with no snow on the ground.
Houghton
https://www.mtu.edu/webcams/walker/
Munising
https://www.mtu.edu/webcams/walker/
and Gaylord
http://www.snowmancam.com/
At the current time it is cloudy and 56 here in MBY. The official reading for Grand Rapids is now at 54. That 54 is the 4th warmest ever for Christmas at Grand Rapids if my 56 was official that would be the 2nd warmest ever.
Slim
This has to be some of the worst Christmas weather ever! No snow and too warm! Horrendous!! At least we can expect better winter weather in January and February!! Bring it on m
I feel for you, I really do. I hope you get some snow and cold this season.
You should not feel bad for him after posts like this in May….KARMA coming back around!
Rocky (Rockford)
The cool pattern continues to rock! Lows in the 30’s this week and some days it won’t even hit 70 degrees! Incredible!
May 22, 2023 7:25 am
Rock on Mark! We will see plenty of snow this season! It could be wild!
Merry Christmas! What a gorgeous day! Was just out in my very green yard with a Tshirt on and I was comfortable!
Merry Christmas to you all!
Merry Christmas to all of Yule (bad pun but couldn’t resist)!
Love it!!
Merry Christmas everyone! Enjoy one of the warmest ones we’ve ever had!