We have our first winter storm warning for this year for the counties in pink.
Travel in western Lower Michigan will be greatly impacted Wednesday by snow showers, heavy at times, areas of blowing snow, and slick roads. Near blizzard conditions with whiteouts may occur and a few power outages are possible.
Winds will diminish on Wednesday night but lake effect snow will continue heavy at times mainly near and west of Highway 131.
Localized heavy lake effect snow and hazardous travel conditions could continue into Thursday and Thursday night for portions of western Lower Michigan near and west of Highway 131, before diminishing for the weekend.
Arctic air and significant lake effect snow may return again for Sunday night and Monday, so I would say we will see some wintry conditions which we haven’t seen in the past couple of years in SW Michigan.
Will this be enough to put up a Blizzard Warning? A blizzard is a snowstorm that has sustained winds of 35 mph or more, with snow reducing visibilities to 1/4 mile or less for at least three hours. … We will have wind gusts up to 50 mph however at this time we are not seeing the sustained criteria to warrant a blizzard warning.
We will see increasing clouds today with breezy conditions. We are currently at 19° at 6 am. Yesterday’s high was 31° and the low 17°.
Snow showers will develop, and winds will increase to 40-50 mph on Wed. Blowing and drifting snow could cause near blizzard conditions, especially along and W of U.S.-131. Scattered power outages will be possible, and wind chills will drop into the single digits.
Forecast Discussion
Main focus early this morning is on the issuance of appropriate winter weather headlines for upcoming lengthy period of significant lake effect snow and wind. For the time being will focus on Wed and Wed night, but additional headlines will likely be needed for Thursday and Thursday night. Will issue a Winter Storm Warning for the western portion of the area from Allegan and Kent Counties north to Mason/Lake, with a Winter Weather Advisory a row of counties east of there. This is based on a strong/mean low level flow of 250 degrees. An advisory of some sort may eventually need expanded east over the remainder of the cwfa (LAN/JXN areas), although it`s unclear at this point if that should be a wind advisory or a winter weather advisory (given probable absence of appreciable snow amounts). Confidence is relatively high for major travel impacts over wrn Lwr MI on Wednesday due to a combination snow showers (heavy at times), blowing snow, winds gusting to 40-50 mph, and falling temps. Frequent whiteouts and abruptly plummeting temps will lead to treacherous/icy roadways and conditions in which we often see numerous slide offs and sometimes even multi-car pile ups on the major interstates/highways. Total snow amounts are a bit more uncertain though since the high winds on Wednesday will spread the snow out, sending multi-bands well inland. This will probably limit amounts at the immediate shoreline with displacement of higher totals farther inland toward the US 131 corridor. Even where amounts are not too excessive though, feel the combo of elements and occasional whiteouts/squalls/near blizzard conditions warrants having a warning out on Wednesday. The heavier, more focused/localized lake effect snow amounts may wait until Wednesday night and Thursday when lighter wind regime and pronounced sfc troughing/enhanced convergence will be present. Preconditioning from Lake Superior and mesoscale interactions/features may come more into play by that time too. Warning may eventually be needed for Van Buren and possibly Kalamazoo counties once a more northwesterly flow pattern is established behind the sfc trough later Thursday or Thursday night.
The NWS AFD just posted an update. They have been considering a blizzard warning but are concerned we will not meet the 3+ hour low visibility threshold. So the WSW still stands for now.
Either way… tomorrow will probably be close to blizzard conditions for the lakeshore!
I just read the same discussion. I feel if they were to issue a Blizzard Warning it may be for Ottawa County north up along the lakeshore but we shall see. But as you stated Blizzard warning or not it will be close and impacts will still be quite high.
Late Breaking Weather Update>>>>>The latest 18Z RDB model gives GR 5 to 8 inches of snow by Thursday morning! Factoring in the wind and low visibilities this will create hazardous road conditions and as Indy has already mentioned – BLIZZARD conditions will be present! Get prepared now! Incredible!
Ohh wow! Glad I found the old gang again from the blog. Thank you Nathan for giving me the link to this. For those that don’t know me I was Kyle (Byron Center) years ago back in 2014. I have since moved to Portland in Ionia County. It’s good to be back.
Welcome back and don’t forget the RDB model rocks. Snowfall predictions are forthcoming!
Welcome back!
👍
More warm weather fantasies I see!! We had above normal snowfall in November and we have already had 5 WWA’s! Winter has been rocking for weeks on end! Get ready for tons more snow this winter! I love it!
And by this time tomorrow we will be above average snowfall for the Winter season…Incredible…InDY
Even though it’s only lake effect and no real snow storms, I am counting this week 1 of winter for GR. For areas outside of lake effect, winter continues to be very quiet.
I am assuming this will only be a short 6 or 7 week winter for GR this year, so enjoy while it lasts.
Mookie is right about winter just starting this week. These articles are the proof!
https://www.woodtv.com/news/grand-rapids/gr-park-district-starts-up-winter-activities/
https://cannonsburg.com/
Second year in a row, winter weather hasn’t hit until January! I love short winters!
Have a new feature at the top of the page – enjoy- these look best on a computer
Looks great!!!! THANKS!!!
Nice touch, Thanks
Slim
I was just about to comment on that. I like it.
I like the look. Thanks
Looks great thank you MV!! InDY
👍
First off on the potential of the storm tomorrow into tomorrow night. If the winds play out as currently forecasted then much of the area could have a wild ride. Even with a little snow winds of 30 to 40 MPH and gust of up to 50 MPH would cause a lot of blowing snow with very low visibility. As for the snow amounts will with that kind of wind the amount of snow may not be held back a good bit. I can not find a similar set up in the past with west winds that high but in… Read more »
Check back in the year of the polar vortex! I would guess this was about 9 or 10 years ago. Gr got hammered with heavy lake effect snow and big winds!
Do you happen to have access to all blizzard warnings since 2000? I know 2011, any other years?
The 2011 one was obviously not lake effect. But maybe one of the other blizzard warnings were?
In looking up past Blizzards for the Grand Rapids area I can find the February 1/2 2011 the so called Ground hog storm. That had the highest wind gust of 41 MPH out of the NE. The 1978 storm with winds gust as high as 46 MPH in Grand Rapids. There are no records as to the wind speed in the 1967 storm. While there was lake effect at least 2011 and 1978 most of the snow was not lake Michigan effect with NE winds.
Slim
Interesting, thanks Slim!
Remember this system has the potential to give white out conditions for hours thats why im thinking the winter storm warning countys now will go over to Blizzard warnings tomorrow morning probably for a good 8 hours or so Michigan state police are already saying travel will be difficult if you dont haft to drive stay home…Look for the east west bound highways to be shut down for hours especially in open urban areas this is one storm not to mes around with ….Lake Michigan will be angry at best..InDY
Major winter storm coming im thinking 12 + inches for Grand rapids area with Blizzard conditions lake Michigan is ready to come alive over west Michigan look out and stay tuned let it snow let it let it snow …InDY
If that happens or anywhere near that we will see major travel issues and multiple closings! Incredible!
BreakingWeather Alert>>>>>Blizzard conditions and heavy snow are imminent! This is a life threatening situation! Get your emergency kit prepared and ready to go for both your car and your house! Stay tuned for later updates!
What a WSW? We have already had 5 WWA and now a warning! This winter is nothing like last winter! I wonder if Zeeland will pick up an inch of snow? Get ready because this storm means business! The preliminary RDB gives GR 3 to 6 inches of snow! Stay tuned for later updates! Rock n roll baby!
Im thinking it will blow inland again lol..InDY
The last time we had a strong wind LE event the heaviest snow fell around 131. So that seems reasonable… at least during Wednesday when winds are strongest.
Also the criteria for a blizzard also says “sustained wind OR frequent gusts to 35 mph or stronger for 3+ hours”. So if we get frequent gusts over 35 then it would technically be a blizzard too 😀
Nathan, I know we have had some windy lake effect events BUT I do NOT recall one with winds as high as 40 to 50 MPH at least not here in the Grand Rapids area. The only two times I can recall that winds were that high were in the storms of 1967 and 1978 but that was on the east side of the state and with NE winds not west winds. My guess is that snow fall amounts will not be that much but the wind could more than make up for it. If the wind is that high… Read more »
True, I think we had a blizzard warning in the mid 2000s and also Feb. 2, 2011. But both were due to low pressure systems, not lake effect.
But when we have strong winds mixed with lake effect, even under blizzard conditions, the snow bands seem to travel pretty far inland.
Keep it over there on the westside, please. 🙂
Keep in mind snowfall totals will be hard to guess at this time with the high winds predicted…
Case in point: I read the text of one of the WSWs in the UP and it calls for 4-12.”