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Warmth Sticks Around

If you would like to post photos of the aurora you can send them to my email (found in the sidebar).  I will get them up in a special post.

Yesterday we reached 77° after a morning low of 39°.  The warm temperatures will continue through the week.  We will keep an eye on the air quality with the fires ramping up in British Columbia.  We have air quality alerts for Minnesota and much of Wisconsin today.

We will be warm today with highs in the mid to upper 70s, showers are likely, and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 pm.  Showers will continue off and on throughout the afternoon and into Tuesday.

NWS Forecast

A slight chance of showers before 8am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 79. Southwest wind 8 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 11 pm, then showers between 11 pm and 2 am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 am. Low around 54. West wind 5 to 7 mph becoming light and variable after midnight. The chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and a quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Showers are likely, mainly before 8 am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 64. Northeast wind 8 to 13 mph. The chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 47. Northeast wind around 11 mph.
Sunny, with a high near 71. Northeast wind around 11 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 46.
A 30 percent chance of showers after 2 pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 74.
Thursday Night
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 54.
A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 2 pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 70.
Friday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 52.
A chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 77.
Saturday Night
A chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 55.
A chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 77.

Weather History

1930: Severe thunderstorms produced tornado and downburst damage across eastern Clinton County. Over 30 farms had wind damage and two dozen barns were destroyed. A tornado struck four miles south of St. Johns.

1980: Kalamazoo was hit by a tornado that killed five people and injured 79 others. Fifty million dollars in damage was done as the tornado damaged or destroyed nearly 300 homes and over 150 businesses.

May 13, 2018, marked the end of a period of wet conditions across the area with the axis of heaviest rain stretching across the I-696 corridor. Locations saw anywhere between 1.5 to 3.5 inches of rainfall between May 11 and 13 and several roads were closed in Oakland and Wayne Counties due to localized flooding.

On May 13, 1912, Detroit reported a record for the latest snow accumulating an inch or more. The snow was measured at 1.5 inches.

1953: An F4 tornado cut an 18-mile path through Haskell and Knox counties in Texas. 17 people were killed, and an eight-block area of Knox City was leveled.

1989: Residents of the southern U.S. viewed a once-in-a-lifetime display of the Northern Lights. This solar storm also caused the entire province of Quebec, Canada, to suffer an electrical power blackout.

1990: Thunderstorms produced severe weather from northwest Texas to Wisconsin, Iowa, and Nebraska during the day and into the night. Severe thunderstorms spawned 59 tornadoes, including twenty-six strong or violent tornadoes, and there were about two hundred reports of large hail or damaging winds. There were forty-eight tornadoes in Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa, and some of the tornadoes in those three states were the strongest of record for so early in the season, and for so far northwest in the United States. The most powerful tornado of the day was one that tore through the central Kansas community of Hesston. The F5 tornado killed two persons, injured sixty others, and caused 22 million dollars in damage along its 67-mile path. The tornado had a lifespan of two hours. Another tornado tracked 124 miles across southeastern Nebraska, injuring eight persons and causing more than five million dollars in damage during its three-hour lifespan. Click HERE for more information from the NWS Office in Wichita, Kansas.

Forecast Discussion

- Shower and Thunderstorm Chances Today into Tuesday

A few lingering light showers this morning to exit to the east
prior to daybreak with a dry start expected this morning. Stalled
out front near I-96 to provide the focus mechanism for increasing
shower and thunderstorm potential mid to late this afternoon.
Severe weather is not expected.

Coverage of showers/storms should be near I-96 and south with
northern areas remaining mostly dry. Initial shower/storm
development will be more scattered in coverage before a transition
toward a more widespread steady rain occurs late tonight into
early Tuesday. Some locations could see over an inch of rain over
the next 24 hours or so. High pressure slowly building in will
begin to dry things out Tuesday afternoon.

Prior to onset of showers later today, temperatures will warm up
nicely with mid to upper 70s for most with a non zero chance of a
few locations topping out at or above 80 degrees.

- Drying Out Midweek

Modest mid level height rises and dry surface to 850 mb
northeasterly flow is expected for the midweek period beginning
Tuesday night and lasting through Wednesday. Low and mid level flow
veers southwest by Thursday out ahead of the next system slated to
impact the region by week`s end. But the majority of Thursday is
likely to remain dry as well at this point.

- Periodic Risk for Rain Thursday Night into the Weekend

Currently, the most likely period for rain is Thursday night into
Friday. Uncertainty exists regarding the synoptic pattern for the
weekend. For Late Thursday into Friday, an upper trough is forecast
to move through. Upper jet divergence is favored for our region. A
weak LLJ is shown to nose into the southern portion of Michigan,
especially by the 00z GFS and GEM. ECE and GEFS ensemble guidance
suggests PWATs rising into the 1.00"-1.25" range. With synoptic
scale lift, increasing moisture, and marginal elevated (and
potentially some surface based) instability present, showers and
thunderstorms remain in the forecast mainly from Thursday
evening/night into Friday. POPs are around 50% but likely trending
up as we get closer, once medium range guidance pins down the

Following this system, much depends on how strong the upper ridging
gets over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes, and whether a renewed
LLJ develops an orientation that brings in low level moisture and
forcing to the region. Various model solutions exist over the
weekend, leading to low confidence in the synoptic pattern
evolution. Ensemble guidance 50th percentile 24hr QPF currently
favors little in the way of rainfall, but several individual
ensemble members have some significant rain amounts over an inch.
With convectively driven precipitation, that is to be expected this
far out. NBM POPs of around 30% for the weekend look good. Highs in
the 70s are favored at this time.
newest oldest
Andy W
Andy W

Lol!!! Just hit 80 in GR, the dude just trolls things into existence!

Rocky (Rockford)
Is it possible that we will not see even one 80 degree day in the entire month of May! How could it be even after all the warm weather hype! Incredible!

May 12, 2024 7:27 am


It never takes long for Rocky to be wrong LOL

Andy W
Andy W

Lol!!! Funniest thing is it only took one day to hit 80 after his wishcast of no 80 degree days this month!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

I asked if it was possible and of course non of the warm weather nuts made a prediction! Pathetic!

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Another fantastic day. Sunny, breezy, and 80 degrees.


My summer flowers are about 1-2 weeks ahead of schedule. I love long summers!


Great minds Mookie… I was just saying the same thing. My irises are up and bleeding hearts. Lilacs already done. I keep dividing the irises in the fall, so I never know what color is going to come up where. I am a little bummed I have a variegated leaf one and the iris is purple and smells like Kool aid…no buds in those. I call them my Diva iris they have special needs I guess to bloom. I have to find it’s favorite partner again. Lol


My peonies are almost flowered. Sometimes this does not happen until June.


Even up at Houghton they are also well ahead of schedule.
and on Mont Ripley the snow is all gone. Most years there are snow spots well into June.


Thanks Michael… I will get a few to you .. I know we were talking about how bad ticks were …we took dogs to vet for Lyme disease shot, they said they had 6 diagnosis of Lyme disease that day. Best thing is flea and tick prevention and the Lyme disease shot. Vet said ticks need around 40 degrees to live and we have had a lot of that temperature even over the winter. Anyone notice the air quality advisory in Minnesota and Wisconsin due to smoke from Canada… Ugh already…. It will be a long summer with that again… Read more »

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

I had not noticed that. UGH is right. I hope it’s not as bad as last year. 🙁

Mark (East Lansing)

I know right!!

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Plenty of rain and sun lately. Everything is green. It has been a nice spring and so far, 2024 has been very pleasant. This year to date, just 27% of the days have been below average.

Nathan (Forest Hills)
Nathan (Forest Hills)

I’d have to agree, this has been a very nice spring. Lots of sunny and mild days and all the plants look healthy


A lot of my outdoor flowers seem to be ahead of schedule though…


Here in MBY I had 0.04” of rainfall overnight and the overnight low here was 58. At the current time it is cloudy and 61.


The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 74/40 there was a trace of rainfall. The sun was out 91% of the possible time. All in all a great spring day. For today the average H/L is 69/48 the record high of 86 was set in 1982,1991 and 2022 the record low of 27 was set in 1946. Last year the H/L was 73/59.