This weekend looks more like a good summer weekend than a May weekend. On that note.
I now have all my summer garden in. This year I planted my usual tomatoes and cucumbers in the back yard and in the front yard I have put flowers in several planters with petunias, germaniums, marigolds gladiolas and nasturtiums. While not a lot I love eating tomatoes and cucumbers off the vine and the flowers make the front yard look good. The planting was about a week earlier than some past years.
We are now just past the halfway mark for May. So far this May the mean at Grand Rapids is 60.1 that is a departure from average of +3.3. The high so far this month is 80 on the 13th and the low so far is 40 on the 12th. If that low of 40 holds for the rest of the month it will be the 4th warmest minimum for any May at Grand Rapids. There has been 2.18” of rainfall so far that is +0.09” from average. There have been 83 Heating Degree Days that is a departure of -65 there have been 6 Cooling Degree Days for a departure of -7. This is the warmest start to May since May of 2018 so not that long ago. That mean of 60.1 so far is well down the list of past warm May’s the top warmest May’s at Grand Rapids are (1977 65.7°) (1896 65.3) (1982 65.0) (2018 64.8) (1991 64.6) and 1922 64.0.
Yesterday was yet another great late spring day at Grand Rapids with a H/L of 79/53 there was no rain fall. The sun was out 49% of the possible time. The highest wind gust was 26 MPH out of the W. For today the average H/L is now up to 71/49 the record high of 90 was set in 1962 the record low of 28 was set in 1973 the most rainfall of 3.31” fell in 2000 last year the H/L was 69/38.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
333 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY MILD WEEKEND
- LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON
- WET MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2024
- VERY MILD WEEKEND
SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPS
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S TODAY AND SUNDAY (EXCEPT COOLER NEAR
LAKE MI AS A WEAK GRADIENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR LAKE BREEZE FORMATION
TODAY AND TOMORROW). AMPLE SUN IS EXPECTED TODAY AFTER PATCHY
EARLY MORNING FOG WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SOME SCT-BKN FAIR WX CU
LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTN MAINLY NEAR TO EAST OF US-131.
- LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON
A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED STORM WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE WNW INTO OUR NW FCST AREA VERY LATE TONIGHT. THE
VAST MAJORITY OF OUR AREA WILL NOT RECEIVE MEASURABLE RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT.
THEN FOR SUNDAY A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS DEVELOPMENT OF
A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY EAST TO SE OF KGRR IN
THE AFTN. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP SE OF KGRR WITH SB
CAPES REACHING 1K-2K J/KG. HOWEVER NO SVR WX IS EXPECTED GIVEN
WEAK SHEAR AND WEAK FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE.
- WET MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS USUALLY A SETUP THAT CAN BE STORMY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE SPRING AND THAT WILL BE THE CASE HERE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OF THE THREE DAYS, TUESDAY WILL GARNER THE
MOST CONCERN.
A SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD WISCONSIN BY
MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION. WE'LL PROBABLY
SEE SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MOVE OVER THE LAKE AND AFFECT THE
NORTHWEST CWA BY MONDAY AND AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THE CONVECTION
EVENTUALLY DRIFTING EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THERE'S DECENT
INSTABILITY...MUCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SHEAR
VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 35KTS OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA. SO THIS AREA
MAY BE FAVORED LATE MONDAY FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS.
A STRONGER SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW WILL EMERGE FROM THE PLAINS
TUESDAY AND PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH MID DAY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT TUESDAY EVENING. BULK SHEAR INCREASES DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY AND GIVEN THE WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH, SPINUPS ARE A
CONCERN. DYNAMICS ARE A BIT STRONGER TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER,
INSTABILITY MAY BE A BIT WEAKER GIVEN THE LACK OF HEATING. THAT
SAID, THE MODELS DO SHOW A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX AROUND 65KTS MOVING
ACROSS THE CWA 06Z WEDNESDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH A 60 KT LLJ. THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING.
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY
MOVES EAST. OVERALL, THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME MAY BE RATHER
WET WITH QPF IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE.
I have needed to use the HVAC at all for the past month. It was fun while it lasted. Removed the cover off the A/C. It feels hot out. 🥵
The anniversary of the Gaylord EF-3 is almost here. Memories of that day are surely flooding back into my head from that as I was impacted by that tornado. I still remember seeing it coming at me and ducking for cover. It’s an experience you won’t understand till you go through it.
Visiting MSU this weekend, great weather for the art fair. It feels like a mid-summer day and the smoke doesn’t seem as bad today (at least not yet…)