Have you ever heard of the three ice men, also known as the Ice Saints? These are three saints associated with planting crops, and – as is the habit with saints – they each have a particular day of the year they are celebrated.
Curiously, the three days are sequential, and it’s only safe to plant in spring after the three days of celebration. Although all three saints died hundreds of years ago, it is probably good wisdom to wait until these May dates are passed to plant.
The three chilly saints. Three Chilly Saints
Once you hear that there are three ice men, it’s interesting to find out who they were. The first, St. Mamertus was the founder of Rogation days, a period of prayer and fasting. He died in 475 and is celebrated on May 11.
The second, St. Pancras, was just a young boy of 14 years old in the year 313 when he refused to renounce his Christian beliefs. For this he was beheaded. His fete day is celebrated on May 12.
St. Servatius was a bishop and reputed to be a distant cousin of Jesus. He died in 384 and is remembered on May 13.
To see if there is any truth in the 3 chilly saints here in Grand Rapids I looked at the top record lows that were below 32 for each of the days the coldest highs and then the record highs for the dates. For May 11 the top record lows at Grand Rapids are 28 in 1908, 29 in 1945, 30 in 1965 and 1949 and 32 in 1947. All other lows were above 32 but several at 33 and 34 could have had frost. The coldest maximum are 42 in 1966, 43 in 1981 45 in 1927, 48 in 2010 and 49 in 2020. All others are 50 or better. It can get rather warm May 11th with a record high of 89 in 1922 and 1896, it reached 87 in 2022 and 85 in 1993,1992 and 1903.
May 12th record low is 27 in 1981, 28 in 1946, 29 2020, 30 in 1976 32 in 1967 and 1951. There were several years with lows of 33 or 34. Some cold highs are 43 in 1966, 44 in 2006 and 46 in 2013. On the warm side the record high of 87 was set in 2022, 86 in 1896 and 85 in 2011,2004 and 1956.
May 13th the record low of 27 was set in 1946, 28 was the low in 1996 and 1971, it was 29 in 2013, 31 in 2020, and 32 in 1997. And of course, there were several years with lows of 33 and 34. As for cold maximum temperatures It was 47 in 1910, 48 in 1974 and 49 in 1973. All other years are 50 or better. On the warm side the record high of 86 was set in 2022, 1991, 1982, 1940, 1903 and 1894 that may be the most days with a record high at the same temperature in the history at Grand Rapids.
The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 66/43 there was no rainfall. The highest wind speed was 25 MPH out of the W. There was 74% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 68/47 the record high of 89 was set in 1896 and 1922 the record low of 28 was set in 1907. Last year the H/L was 84/48.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
300 AM EDT SAT MAY 11 2024
KEY MESSAGES
– RAIN EXITS SATURDAY, WARMING TREND BEGINS SUNDAY
– RAIN CHANCES REMAIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
– QUIET MIDWEEK, RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT SAT MAY 11 2024
– RAIN EXITS SATURDAY, WARMING TREND BEGINS SUNDAY
LIGHT RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING AS SURFACE LOW MOVES
SLOWLY THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO ONTARIO. NORTHWEST FLOW COULD
BRING A FEW SPRINKLES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE WARMER
AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY, THOUGH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY.
– RAIN CHANCES REMAIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT
OVERHEAD AND BECOME STATIONARY INTO MONDAY. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES, MUCAPE VALUES OF 500 J/KG OR A BIT BETTER ARE SHOWN AS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND WESTERN LOWER
MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES ARE SHOWN TO INCREASE TO OVER
1.00″ DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. HOWEVER, LLJ DIVERGENCE IS INDICATED
OVER THE REGION, LEADING TO SOME QUESTION MARKS ABOUT EXTENT OF RAIN
COVERAGE AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. NEVERTHELESS, ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL
IS THERE TO WARRANT LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
ESPECIALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF I-96 SUNDAY NIGHT.
DURING THE DAY MONDAY, THE SURFACE FRONT MAY HELP PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS, THOUGH UPPER LEVEL
FORCING IS NOT REALLY THERE. BY MONDAY NIGHT, BETTER LLJ FORCING IS
SHOWN ESPECIALLY BY THE GFS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-96, INDICATING A
THREAT FOR WIDER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BUT PROBABLY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF THUNDERSTORMS AS ANY INSTABILITY LOOKS TO FIZZLE OUT. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SLIDE SOUTH OF THE STATE BY TUESDAY MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON, TAKING THE THREAT FOR RAIN WITH IT. OVERALL, THE
HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY LOOK TO BE NEAR
AND SOUTH OF I-96.
GIVEN THE COOLER AIR ADVECTING IN BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY, WE MAY
SEE HIGHS SLIP BACK INTO THE MID 60S. HIGHS SHOULD BOUNCE BACK TO
AROUND 70 ON WEDNESDAY.
– QUIET MIDWEEK, RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE WEEK
MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE SHOWN FOR MIDWEEK WITH A GOOD PROBABILITY
FOR DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO AT LEAST PART OF THURSDAY.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS DIVERGED A BIT FROM 24 HOURS AGO REGARDING THE
LATE WEEK SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE GEFS REMAINS RESOLUTE IN UPPER
TROUGHING ARRIVING BY FRIDAY (MEAN 500 MB HEIGHTS), BUT THE ECE HAS
STEADILY WEAKENED THIS FEATURE WITH THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. THIS LEADS
TO SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT A FAIR
AMOUNT OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
SOME THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY OR SO. NBM GUIDANCE IS BROADLY
INDICATING 30-40% RISK FOR RAIN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY, BUT THIS IS
LIKELY DUE TO SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE.
ONCE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS A BETTER HANDLING ON THE POTENTIAL UPPER
TROUGH (OR LACK THEREOF), WE SHOULD GET MORE FINE TUNED
PROBABILITIES FOR WHEN THE NEXT RISK FOR RAIN WILL BE.
Detailed Forecast For Grand Rapids
Overnight
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a steady temperature around 54. West southwest wind around 14 mph.
Saturday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 61. Breezy, with a west wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 43. West northwest wind 5 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 72. Light south wind becoming southwest 12 to 17 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 26 mph.
Sunday Night
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 2am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 57. South southwest wind 14 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Monday
A 40 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 71.
Monday Night
A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 67.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 44.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 71.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 48.
Thursday
A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 72.
Thursday Night
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54.
Friday
A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 70.
Not as bright as last night. Bummer.
Did see a shooting star though!!
Hoping skies will clear for another shot at the Northern Lights again!! I do see some sun!!
Me too. We’ve had a few peeks of sun this afternoon here.
Clearing here… Some puffy clouds hanging out…but could make pix more interesting.
Getting breaks in the clouds now. I hope it continues.
I’m going to be over by Lansing. Any good wide open spaces I can go?
We’re going to go NE of town – like Bath/Laingsburg area.
Waking up to 45 degrees and the furnace running isn’t it the middle of May?? I better shut my windows in my house…INDY
That’s just about average for today. But it does feel chilly after being so abnormally warm.
Cold, cold, cold!
I am going to add my two cents I was bummed because clouds moving in around sunset. Then I saw a glimmer of pink…too many trees so we drove to a flat spot. They were just breathtaking and to experience it with family members a memorable night for sure!
My wife and I drove out to the country and watched the northern lights for about an hour or so! Just spectacular and gorgeous! Just a beautiful display of God’s Creation!
That was absolutely incredible last night. One of the most beautiful sights I have ever seen… honestly breathtaking. And lots of amazing pictures too!
The northern lights dancing for hours last night was easily one of the coolest experiences of my life.