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Increasing Chances of Storms

Yesterday we reached 85° in Otsego after a morning low of 55°.  We have increasing chances of storms today and tomorrow with temperatures in the mid-80s on both days.  I bought a new inverter generator last week figuring this will be a stormy spring and early summer.  This one has a push-button start so I don’t have to wear myself out with the pull cord on the old one.

SPC Outlook

Day One

Day Two

Day Three

NWS Forecast

A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 11 am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Light and variable wind becoming west-southwest at 6 to 11 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 22 mph.
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 63. South wind 6 to 15 mph becoming west after midnight.
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Light west-southwest wind becoming southwest at 6 to 11 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Tuesday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 67. South southwest wind 8 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. The chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and a quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8 am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 8 am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. West southwest wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. The chance of precipitation is 60%.
Wednesday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11 pm, then a chance of showers between 11 pm and 2 am. Partly cloudy, with a low of around 53. The chance of precipitation is 30%.
Sunny, with a high near 73.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low of around 51.
Sunny, with a high near 76.
Friday Night
A chance of showers after 8 pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 55.
A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 77.
Saturday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 57.
A chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 77.

Weather History

1975: A tornado injured one person as it destroyed two mobile homes at Byron Center in Kent County.

1977: The last half of May is unusually warm. Record high temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s are set across Lower Michigan from the 16th to the 28th. This helps make it the warmest May on record at Grand Rapids.

On May 20, 1996, lightning within a thunderstorm that went through Richfield Township at 2:53 pm caused one injury.

1970: Nesbyen, Norway reached 96 degrees on this day, becoming the warmest temperature recorded in Norway.

2001: Large hail driven by strong thunderstorm winds raked Denver International and front-range airports. Wind gusting to 54 mph along with hail as large as 2 inches in diameter punched at least 14 thousand holes and cracks in the flat roofs of several buildings at Denver International Airport. Also, 93 planes and hundreds of cars were damaged. About 100 flights had to be canceled stranding 1500 travelers. The Airport was completely shut down for about 20 minutes. The storm also damaged ground avoidance radar used to track planes on the ground to prevent collisions. Damage was estimated at 10 million dollars not counting the cost to the 93 airliners. The storm moved south and struck Watkins Colorado with hail as large as 2 1/2 inches in diameter and winds gusting to 60 mph.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Marginally severe storms with potential for damaging wind gusts
and hail are expected from mid afternoon through late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is a slight risk for severe weather mainly late Tuesday
night into early Wednesday.

Forecast Discussion

- Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms Today

A fairly complex mesoscale pattern will evolve across our area
today as a warm front just south of our area early this morning
moves slowly north. Meanwhile well off to our west convection
across eastern IA early this morning will continue moving ene. A
consensus blend of latest CAMs and 00Z HREF suggest that this
convection will reach our west to northwestern fcst area by mid to
late morning.

Severe wx is unlikely with this first round of rain and embedded
convection given limited instability and fairly weak shear as
well as unfavorable timing. However this complex of rain and
convection may inhibit the warm front from moving much further
north then perhaps the I-96 corridor.

Our main risk for marginally severe wx then comes for this
afternoon and evening as instability builds in the warm sector.
SB/MU cape values should reach around 1500 j/kg near to south of
I-96 by mid to late aftn with potential for convective development
with relatively strong updrafts by then as suggested by the 00Z

Localized damaging wind gusts are the primary svr wx threat from
mid aftn through the evening as fcst soundings show potential for
dry adiabatic low level lapse rates and dcapes to reach 1000 j/kg.
Localized large hail is also possible looking at fcst soundings
and we also can`t rule out potential for an isolated weak spinup
in the vicinity of the warm front where enhanced updraft helicity
is expected. A diurnally driven gradual decrease in convection is
fcst late this evening and overnight.

- Warm and Humid Tuesday

It will be warm and quite humid Tuesday and most of the day will
be dry. We do expect some scattered showers and thunderstorms to
begin to develop from mid to late afternoon coincident with the
peak in diurnally driven instability (sb/mu capes potentially
reaching close to 2k j/kg).

However convective potential is somewhat mitigated by the lack of
a stronger focusing mechanism for convective development to occur.
An upper shortwave moving in from the wsw could focus some convective
initiation from mid to late afternoon before we get back into
some mid to upper level nva.

- Severe Weather Risk Tuesday Night

A QLCS emanating from the upstream SPC Day2 ENH risk area is
expected to make a run at wrn Lwr MI on Tuesday night with the main
threat being damaging wind gusts. The severe weather risk should
gradually wane overnight as this feature eventually loses steam with
eastward extent due to declining instability.

Some question as to the areal extent of convection on Wednesday
since the sfc boundary may slip south of the area, but best pops
will be focused south and east of GRR and especially near JXN. It`s
possible much of the area dries out with stable low level westerly
flow becoming established.

- Dry and Pleasant Late Week Period

A period of dry and pleasant weather looks likely for the end of the
week as sfc ridging takes over and a drier air mass with dew pts in
the 40s arrives. Also an amplifying upper level ridge is shown to
be overhead by Friday.

Pops appear to ramp up again over the holiday weekend as the ridge
moves east and warm front returns, although confidence regarding
the timing and coverage of convective events is low at this time
newest oldest

Took our first swim today before the storms moved in…

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10p


Michigan weather is so underrated. We’ve had summer weather for a long time now, and it’s only mid May.

Saw some big hail reports in East Michigan yesterday.

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Too funny! Pathetic!

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

The hot sun is beginning to dry up a bit here. Could use some rain, but hopefully before the upcoming holiday weekend. Temps look favorable for weekend, though.


The overnight low here in MBY was 52 and at the current time it is cloudy and 56.


The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 85/56 there was no rainfall the sun was out 91% of the time. The highest wind gust was 21 MPH out of the W. For today the average H/L is 71/50 the record high of 92 was set in 1977 and the record low of 30 was set in 2002. The most rainfall of 3.39” fell in 1996 last year the H/L was 67/46.