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Happy Mothers Day

After a cool breezy day yesterday, the weather will improve greatly for today.  We struggled to 59° yesterday with most of the day in the low 50s.  Temperatures will rise to the mid-70s today.  There is a marginal risk of severe storms mainly north of Grand Rapids tonight after 11 pm.

SPC Outlook

NWS Forecast

Sunny, with a high near 76. Light south-southwest wind increasing to 9 to 14 mph in the morning.
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 11 pm and 5 am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 58. South southwest wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
A chance of showers before 11 am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11 am and 2 pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 77. Southwest wind 10 to 13 mph. The chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and a quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Monday Night
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 55. West southwest wind 5 to 8 mph becoming east after midnight. The chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Showers are likely, mainly before 8 am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 66. Northeast wind 8 to 14 mph. The chance of precipitation is 60%.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 46.
Sunny, with a high near 70.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 46.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 73.
Thursday Night
A chance of showers after 8 pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55.
A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 72.
Friday Night
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55.
A chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 74.

Weather History

1956: A severe weather outbreak produces tornadoes, high winds, and large hail across Lower Michigan. A deadly tornado hit near Flint for the second time in three years, killing three people on the southeast side of the city. One person was killed in Gratiot County as a tornado moved between Alma and Ithaca. Muskegon was pelted with baseball-sized hail that caused thousands of dollars in damage to homes and cars.

2000: Severe weather with flash flooding, tornadoes, and downburst winds hit Lower Michigan. A weak tornado moved through an open field near Gobles in Allegan County.

On May 12, 1956, an F4 tornado hit Genesee County killing 3 people and injuring 116. This tornado occurred just three years after the devastating Flint/Beecher tornado of June 8, 1953, and is the last killer tornado to hit Genesee County. On the same date, an F4 tornado hit southern Wayne County and was responsible for 22 injuries.

1760: Ben Franklin was the first person to identify nor’easters. In a letter on this date to Alexander Small of London, Franklin described an experience that happened to him in November 1743 when storm clouds in Philadelphia blocked his view of an eclipse. Franklin assumed that the storm had blown in from the northeast because the surface winds at his location were from that direction. He was puzzled to find out later that his brother had viewed the eclipse with no problems and that the storm had arrived in Boston four hours later. The information caused Franklin to surmise correctly that the storm had moved from southwest to northeast. Click HERE to read the letter to Alexander Small.

1886: An estimated F4 tornado touched down in Vermilion County near Armstrong, Illinois, and passed between Alvin and Rossville before moving into Indiana. At least five houses were destroyed, two of which were entirely swept away. Three people were killed. Five other strong tornadoes occurred across Illinois that day: two near Mt. Carroll, one near Odell, one near Jacksonville, and one in Iroquois County.

1997: A towering F1 tornado ripped its way through the middle of Miami, Biscayne Bay, and Miami Beach right after lunch Monday, smashing cars and windows, tossing trees skyward, and scaring the dickens out of thousands of people. Click HERE for a YouTube video of the tornado.

Forecast Discussion

- Warmer Today, Chance of Storms this Evening and Tonight

Warmer day in store today as high pressure and abundant sunshine
build over lower Michigan. Temperatures should climb into the 70s
today before a cold front works into lower Michigan this evening.
A low level jet and heating of the day should help to provide
some moisture and instability to aid in the possibility of some
thunderstorms this evening and tonight. The greatest risk appears
to be up north where hail and gusty winds will be possible in any
more organized storm activity. Severe potential continues to be
limited, though considering the cold temperatures aloft a couple
reports of severe hail cannot be ruled out. Cold front stalls out
over the lower peninsula where it will aid in the potential for
showers and storms late Monday.

- Showers With a Slight Chance for Storms Monday Night/Tuesday

Model guidance continues to favor showers and perhaps a few storms
Monday night into approximately midday Tuesday. Upper divergence is
shown to move over southern Lower Michigan by the 00z GFS and 03z
RAP, and to a lesser extent the 00z ECMWF. LLJ convergence is also
indicated by the GFS and RAP near and south of I-96. PWAT values are
forecast to be 1.25"-1.50". A surface cold front will be sagging
south through the region as this occurs. Thus, an elevated risk for
showers and a few storms is indicated with POPs around 80% along and
south of I-96. Rain amounts look variable, with general areal
averages in the 0.25"-0.50" for most of the region (mainly less than
0.25" north of M-20), though the NAM 3km and GFS both indicate
potential for pockets of an inch or so especially near and south of
I-96. The ECMWF favors the highest amounts near and south of I-94. I
think it just depends on how far north the LLJ gets, as weak as it
may be. Nevertheless, showers are likely and with a small amount of
elevated instability (maybe a couple hundred J/kg) there could be a
few storms, but those will likely be the exception to the rule.
Expect the precipitation to slowly erode from N to S during the day
Tuesday, with areas along and south of I-94 the last to dry out.

- Dry Midweek, Then Rain Chances Return Late

Good model agreement exists in giving us a dry midweek period (as
early as Tuesday for central Lower MI, but for all areas Wednesday).
This occurs given N/NE low to mid level flow and a dry airmass in
place. Seasonable temps are expected Wednesday with highs around 70F
for most. The latest ECE mean 500 mb height pattern is starting to
reverse course and trend toward the GEFS mean, which favors upper
troughing moving into the upper Midwest by Thursday into Friday.
Ensemble mean PWATs are climbing a bit higher with the 00z guidance
for Thursday night into Friday, and ECMWF/GFS deterministic guidance
suggests upper jet divergence may move into the region with some
lower level jet reflection potentially as well. As a result, rain
chances are warranted especially later Thursday into Friday. NBM
POPs are not especially high yet with 40-50% chance, which seems
reasonable this far out, though POPs could certainly trend higher if
ensemble agreement increases further.
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Michael …this is a big ask is there a place that our friends here can share the Northern Lights pix with each other. It would be interesting to see what others saw around the state.

Just curious…

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

75 and sunny. Perfect day. We spent most of the day outside. I should have used sunscreen. Got a little sun burn.

Happy Mother’s Day!


We are now 1/3 of the way through May and the mean at Grand Rapids is 59.3 that is a departure of +3.6 the highest for the month so far is 78 on the 4th and the lowest was earlier today with a low of 41. Here in MBY I got down to 39 overnight and at the current time it is clear and 52.

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

What? 39 degrees! Wow that is COLD!!!


The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 60/46 there was 0.17” of rainfall. The highest wind gust was 35 MPH out of the SW the sun was out 22% of the time. For today the average H/L is now 69/47 the record high of 87 was set in 2022 and the record low of 37 was set in 1981. The most rain fall of 1.43” fell in 1912. Last year the H/L was 79/53.


Happy Mother’s Day to all the special ladies in someone’s life and to the guys who have to play both roles as well….

Went to.check out Northern Lights last night not as brilliant.as Friday night.

Have a wonderful day!!!

Nathan (Forest Hills)
Nathan (Forest Hills)

Happy Mothers Day! Looks like a fantastic day- low 70s and sunshine

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Is it possible that we will not see even one 80 degree day in the entire month of May! How could it be even after all the warm weather hype! Incredible!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

The furnace is cranking, temps around 40 degrees, yesterday was yet another below normal temp day! WOW have we seen a lot of cold nights lately! WOW, just wow, WOW! Incredible!!!