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Chance of Storms – Air Quality

We had a very nice 73° yesterday.  We will begin a warming trend with temperatures in the mid 70 to low 80s into next week.  We have increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms late today and overnight.

Air Quality

Smoke Map

Air Quality

SPC Forecast

SPC Day One

NWS Forecast

A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly after 5pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 76. Light and variable wind becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the morning.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11 pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 11pm and 2 am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. Southeast wind 3 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 2 pm and 5 pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 77. South southeast wind 3 to 6 mph.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 56. Light and variable wind.
Sunny, with a high near 81. Calm wind becoming east southeast around 6 mph in the afternoon.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 59.
Sunny, with a high near 81.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 58.
A chance of showers after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 83.
Monday Night
A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61.
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly sunny, with a high near 81.
Tuesday Night
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58.
A chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 72.

Weather History

1997: Record low temperatures are set at Grand Rapids and Muskegon with both falling to 29 degrees. This will go in the record books as the coldest May on record at Grand Rapids.

On May 16th, 1974, an F1 tornado hit Sanilac County at 11:30PM.

Three years later on May 16th, 1977 in Detroit, the temperature rose 49 degrees from a morning low 40 to an afternoon high of 89.

1874: The Mill Creek disaster occurred west of North Hampton, MA. Dam slippage resulted in a flash flood that claimed 143 lives and caused a million dollars property damage. Click HERE for more information from the New England Historical Society.

1983: An unyielding spring storm dumped heavy snow across the Front Range in Colorado. High winds of 20 to 40 mph with gusts to 55 mph produced blizzard conditions at times. The Foothills received 1 to 2 feet of snow with 4 to 12 inches along the Foothills. Blowing snow whipped the snow into drifts several feet deep closing schools and highways. Power outages occurred; with 20 square miles of Denver blacked out. Hundreds of passengers were stranded as only half of the runways were open at Stapleton International Airport. The high temperature at Denver the next day of just 40° set a record low maximum. Much of the snow melted on the 18th as temperatures rebounded into the middle and upper 50s causing widespread street flooding.

1989: Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather in the south-central U.S. Thunderstorms spawned twenty tornadoes, and there were 180 reports of large hail and damaging winds. A tornado in Cleburne, Texas caused thirty million dollars damage. A violent F-4 tornado touched down near Brackettville, Texas and a strong F-3 tornado killed one person and injured 28 others at Jarrell, Texas.

Forecast Discussion

- Showers and storms late today and tonight

Mild weather is forecast today with partial sunshine and as winds
become south to southwesterly out ahead of the system approaching
from the west. High temps will reach the low to mid 70s (except
cooler near the Lake MI shoreline). Clouds will gradually
increase through the day but most of the day will be dry. Some
showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop by late this
afternoon as MUCape values reach 500-750 j/kg over our sw fcst
area by then.

A consensus of 00Z HREF svr wx parameters suggests that marginally
severe convection late this aftn/eve will stay to our west across
southern WI. That is where there is potential for stronger
instability to develop along with favorable 0-6km shear on the
order of 30-40 kts and forcing from the front.

We expect weakening convection to gradually move in ahead of the
low pressure system and upper disturbance this evening due to
relatively weak instability over our area. A few showers and
storms will linger Friday with a weak frontal boundary still in
our area.

- Dry and very mild weekend

Upper riding will build into the Great Lakes this weekend and
temperatures will respond by climbing well above normal. Highs are
going to be in the 80s Saturday and Sunday along with quite a bit of

- Chance of showers/storms Monday through Tuesday night

We`re still keeping an eye on a potential stormy pattern Monday
afternoon through Tuesday night. The models are quite a bit more
frisky in regard to generating instability through that period than
last night`s runs.

A northern stream low will push a cold front toward the region
Monday and bring in a strong stream of moisture with it. A minor
short wave looks to accompany the front as it moves toward Lake MI
Monday afternoon. MUCAPE rises to 1200 j/kg near the front and
showers and storms will probably develop along the boundary and clip
at least the western cwa Monday afternoon/night.

GFS and Euro show a second wave developing on the front and moving
northeastward toward Lower MI Tuesday. A stronger short wave
rotating around the low will be a catalyst for convective
development Tuesday afternoon to the west that may move across the
cwa Tuesday afternoon/evening. The LLJ looks to be stronger as does
the instability and especially the shear; we could be looking at
strong/severe storms late Tuesday.

Temperatures will cool off a bit behind the cold front
newest oldest
Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

More smoke issues! Horrendous and more negative aspects of our current global warming disaster!

Andy W
Andy W

Yep China and India really need to do something about their emissions and pollution! From The AP: DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — The world this year pumped 1.1% more heat-trapping carbon dioxide into the air than last year because of increased pollution from China and India, a team of scientists reported. This year, the burning of fossil fuel and manufacturing of cement have added the equivalent of putting 2.57 million pounds (1.17 million kilograms) of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere every second. If China and India were excluded from the count, world carbon dioxide emissions from the burning of… Read more »

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

China and India have nearly ten times the population of the US so their emissions will be much greater than ours. Is it just me or does the math not math in the final paragraph? The world’s emissions increased by 398M metric tons but next sentence says China alone increased by 458M metric tons. Am I misunderstanding the numbers? My neighbor does not recycle. I cannot control what my neighbor does or does not do. However, I can control what I do. I choose to recycle. Will my individual actions make a difference globally (rhetorical question)? Every little bit helps,… Read more »

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Last I checked India and Chino are part of our World! Your ignorance is unimaginable!

Andy W
Andy W

Yep and they are not doing enough to curb their pollution. Your reading comprehension is that of a dullard!

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

But I thought warm winters were awesome for us. Canada needed snow this winter and didn’t get what they needed keeping the drought going. Those that wanted warmer temps I don’t want to hear complaints about smoke if we have them again like last year. Unhealthy air doesn’t sound good to me. Let’s hope for plentiful rains up there to keep things in check and a return to a more normal snowfall this coming winter. I think it was like 70% of Canada is in some form of drought.

Andy W
Andy W

Don’t complain about The USA, the far east is the problem!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Totally ignorant!

Andy W
Andy W

You’re the one ignoring reality, JA!!


The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 72/48 there was no rainfall the sun was out 81% of the time. The highest wind gust was 22 MPH out of the E. For today the average H/L is 70/19 the record high of 89 was set in 1962 and 1977 the record low of 29 was set in 1997. Last year the H/L was 75/43.


The overnight low here in MBY was 48 and at the current time it is hazy and 49.

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Another pretty morning here but like you, it’s a bit hazy here too.