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Smoke Once Again

Here are some more aurora photos from SS (thanks a bunch):



We have a continuation of last year with fires from our friends in Canada,  with little or no snow the leaves shed last fall don’t decompose and remain moist as they should which is fuel for fire.  We may have the same issue this year in the U.S.  Below is the air quality at 5 am and the smoke map:

NWS Forecast

Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 72. Northeast wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.
Mostly clear, with a low around 47. East wind around 8 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
A 20 percent chance of showers after 2 pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 75. East wind around 6 mph becoming calm.
Thursday Night
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8 pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 8 pm and 5 am, then showers likely after 5 am. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 57. South southwest wind around 6 mph becoming southeast in the evening. The chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and a quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 11 am. Partly sunny, with a high near 73. South southeast wind 6 to 8 mph becoming west-southwest in the afternoon. The chance of precipitation is 50%.
Friday Night
A 30 percent chance of showers before 2 am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 76.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 57.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 76.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low of around 53.
A chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 78.
Monday Night
A chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 58.
A chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 79.

Weather History

1855: A tornado destroys at least one building as it moves from Jackson to Washtenaw County.

1972: A tornado caused minor damage north of Potterville in Eaton County.

On May 15, 1942, Flint was in the middle of a hot streak from the 14th to the 18th when high temperatures ranged from 91 to 93 degrees.

Also on May 15, 2007, there were 40 severe wind and hail reports across Southeast Michigan including tennis ball size hail in Bad Axe and a measured 74 mph wind gust in Howell.

1896: An estimated F5 tornado struck Sherman, Texas, killing 73 people; 60 of them in downtown. Tornado victims were found as far as 400 yards away from their original location. A trunk lid was carried 35 miles by the twister.

1957: An F4 tornado killed 20 people in Silverton, Texas. A 5,000-pound gasoline storage tank was reportedly carried 1.5 miles and dropped into a lake. Residents said the tornado “looked like red sand, boiling and rumbling.”

1968: Also, an F5 tornado moved through Butler, Chickasaw, Floyd, Franklin, and Howard Counties in northeast Iowa. The tornado touched down northeast from north of Hansell, passing east of Aredale and Marble Rock, before devastating Charles City. The tornado grew more massive and intense as it approached Charles City. The huge funnel passed directly through town, destroying 337 homes, and causing about $30 million in damage. The tornado continued to the northeast hitting Elma. From there the tornado turned to the north and dissipated south of Chester, 4 miles south of the Minnesota border. Nearly 2000 homes were damaged or destroyed. All 13 deaths occurred in Floyd County. 450 injuries were reported in Floyd County and 12 injuries in Howard County. Another F5 tornado moved north-northeast from southwest of Oelwein to Maynard and east of Randalia in Fayette County, IA. Homes were leveled and swept away in both Oelwein and Maynard. The warning sirens had sounded for only 15 seconds before the power failed in Oelwein. Nearly 1000 homes were damaged or destroyed along the path, and 34 people had to be hospitalized. Almost 1,000 families were affected. In addition to these F5 tornadoes, an F2 tornado touched down 6 miles south of Cresco, IA and two weak F1 tornadoes touched down in Dodge County, MN. Also, baseball size hail fell in Fayette County, IA.

1972: The worst ice jam flooding of memory for long-time residents took place along the Kuskokwim River and Yukon River in Alaska. It was the first time since 1890 that the two rivers “flowed as one.” The towns of Oscarville and Napaskiak have been entirely inundated.

Forecast Discussion

- Drying Out Today, But Showers/Storms Return Late Thursday

The latest GOES low and mid level WV imagery shows a slow erosion
in moisture across central Lower Michigan this morning. RAP13
and GFS relative humidity layer (850mb-250mb) trends indicate
only a gradual decrease in moisture from N to S today. As such,
the expectation is for areas near and north of I-96 to see sun
break through by mid to late morning, but areas south of I-96 (and
especially toward I-94) may take until early to mid afternoon for
clouds to erode. Any leftover light showers and sprinkles are
expected to end by mid morning across our far southern forecast
area near I-94.

For Thursday, a weakening upper trough will push into the Great
Lakes region. Synoptic forcing for ascent will somewhat be there
with the upper trough and a decent ULJ, though GFS/HRRR model
soundings show equilibrium levels not getting much above
500mb-400mb during the daytime, indicative of modest convective
potential. Low level moisture advection may take some time to
materialize across the region, impacting areas near and south of
I-96 first. 00z HREF guidance does show some marginal SB CAPE
possible in this area, perhaps a few hundred J/kg by late
afternoon. There could be a scattering of showers and a few
thunderstorms possible Thursday afternoon especially near and west
of U.S. 131, but it appears most precipitation will hold off
until after dark.

- Showers/storms Thursday night and Friday

We`ll have several chances for showers and thunderstorms during the
period. However, much of the weekend looks dry.

Thursday night and Friday will see the highest chances for rain as a
cold front moves across the cwa. Low to moderate instability is
progd with this system with MUCAPE values in the 500-1k j/kg range.
Isolated to scattered storms are likely during this time frame.
Shear values in the 35-40 kt range suggest that a few storms may
skew toward being strong late Thursday night and Friday morning,
however early morning timing usually doesn`t bode well for stronger
storms and the short wave accompanying the front isn`t all that
impressive either.

- Chance of stronger storms Monday/Tuesday

The weather early next week bears watching. West southwest flow
aloft will bring several short waves from the Plains into the Great
Lakes and each will have an impressive surface low. The first low
will develop Sunday night over KS/IA and then track toward Lower MI
Monday. The GFS isn`t as aggressive as the Euro is but develops
showers/storms near a wave on a frontal boundary that moves across
the cwa Monday. Most of the instability and dynamics remain south of
the cwa with the GFS, but nonetheless produces some rain.

The bigger deal may be Tuesday as both models produce an impressive
surface low over the MO Valley and push a warm front toward the cwa.
Additionally, 40-50kts shear develop in response to a strong LLJ to
the south and higher mid level winds poking in from the southwest.
This scenario has the potential for stronger storms.

Highs will be in the 70s through the period.
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Lovely day and a very summery long-term forecast. The warmth just won’t stop!

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Cue the Deep Purple….

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

Awesome Northern Lights photos! The last time I can remember anything like this was about 40 years ago in the early to mid ’80’s. It’s been a long time.

Nathan (Forest Hills)
Nathan (Forest Hills)

There was a solar cycle peak in the early 80s (and right now) so makes sense!


Thank you…
I remember when I was young we saw some green pillars after the Holland Fair in tht 80s.


The overnight low here in MBY was 52 and the current temperature is 53 with cloudy skies. Here in my yard, I recorded 0.03” of rainfall yesterday and overnight.


The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 65/52 there was a reported 0.13” of rainfall. The highest wind gust was 22 MPH out of the NE there was no sunshine. For today the average H/L is now up to 70/48 the record high of 91 was set in 1991 the record low of 34 was set in 1920. The most rainfall of 4.15” fell in 2001. Last year the H/L was 73/38.