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Warnings & Advisories Continue

We have about five inches of fresh snow on the ground (not official as I haven’t made it out to where the wind hasn’t been blowing).  Most of this fell late afternoon and overnight when the winds switched to the west.  This brings us to 21 inches for the season, halfway to our total for last year.

We have 17° at 7 am with snow falling.  We had 35° for our high yesterday (morning) and the low was 16°.

…WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
FRIDAY…

* WHAT…Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 12
inches with locally over one foot possible.

* WHERE…Portions of southwest and west central Michigan.

* WHEN…Until 10 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS…Travel could be very difficult and roads may become
impassible at times. The hazardous conditions will impact
commutes today into Friday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…A dominant band of heavy lake effect snow
will develop later this afternoon into tonight. Snowfall rates
over 1″ per hour are likely within this band, making road
clearing efforts challenging at best. Significant impacts to
travel are expected especially this evening into Friday morning.
Some of the highest totals from this band will likely impact
Ludington, Silver Lake and Hart, Holland, Fennville, South Haven
and Bangor.

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY…

* WHAT…Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 4 inches.

* WHERE…Barry and Calhoun counties.

* WHEN…Until 10 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS…Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…Moderate to occasionally heavy snow showers
will continue impacting travel today into tonight. Snowfall
rates could exceed a half an inch per hour especially early this
afternoon into tonight.


The Snow showers that moved through yesterday brought significant snowfall across Western Michigan. Here are the reports so far.


A dominant band of heavy lake effect snow will develop later this afternoon into tonight. Snowfall rates over 1” per hour will likely be within this band, making road clearing efforts difficult. Significant travel impacts are expected, especially this evening into Friday morning. Cities affected include but are not limited to, Ludington, Muskegon, Hart, Holland, Fennville, South Haven, Kalamazoo and Bangor.


Forecast Discussion

- Adjustment to Winter Weather Headlines for Today

With overnight model guidance coming into focus, we believe there is
a need to make adjustments to our existing winter weather headlines.
For many areas near and east of US 131, improving conditions this
morning with only occasional snow showers today (light
accumulations) warrants an early cancellation to headlines. The
fact that we have lost impactful wind gusts combined with only
occasional snow showers for locations further inland suggests
significant impacts are not likely to occur. A caveat to this is
if a convergent band of snow showers develops in the 15z-21z time
frame along the I-96 corridor as the NAM3km is showing. This
could even impact areas as far east as Lansing. I`m not sure 850mb
winds of 20 kts and surface winds of 10-15 kts are enough to push
the bands that far inland, however. For areas along our lakeshore
and extending eastward into the I-94 corridor, some of the
heaviest snow accumulations are yet to come later today into
tonight. So while there may be a reprieve in the steadier snow
showers for a time this morning, travel conditions will likely
deteriorate once again especially from early afternoon well into
the late night hours.

One of the toughest calls has been what to do with winter headlines
for Kent County. There is a lull in the action this morning, but
portions of southern and western Kent may get another surge of
impactful snow showers later this morning into early afternoon
before the threat winds down later this evening. Warning level
impacts do not appear likely today for Kent, but enough of a model
signal is there for a burst of moderate to heavy snow showers
redeveloping today (with some slick travel) to at least include
the county in an Advisory. Northern/NE Kent looks to be in a less
favorable area for accumulations and impacts to travel.

GOES shortwave IR imagery early this morning clearly indicated
warming cloud tops across a good portion of the region and a
disruption in organized snow shower activity. However, re-saturation
of the DGZ is forecast to occur once again this morning with better
omegas showing up especially after 15z. The 925-850mb model
streamlines and respective omega within that layer indicate a
greater risk for steadier snow showers after 15z as well. Minimal
snowfall rates this morning should pick up rather quickly beyond
15z and we could once again see 0.5"-1.0"/hr rates commence across
the Warning and Advisory areas. These rates may get even higher
across the Warning area in the 00z-12z Friday time frame.

HREF 24hr QPF shows enhanced likelihood for 0.50"-1.00" of liquid
equivalent across the Warning area through Friday morning. With
snow ratios forecast to be 15:1-20:1, the fluff factor will be
pretty significant and accumulations could reach 6"-10" or more of
new snowfall through Friday morning. In fact, WPC is showing a max
snowfall swath of over a foot across extreme western
Mason/Oceana, and then across far western Ottawa into the western
half of Allegan and Van Buren Counties. Very poor driving
conditions are likely for these areas tonight and impacts could
easily linger into the Friday morning commute. Western Kalamazoo
County also could see Warning level impacts with a fresh 6" or
more.

- Next Round of Snow Sunday Night into Monday

A quick shot of Arctic air Sunday night into Monday should
reactivate the lake effect machine with NW or WNW flow setting up.
With 850mb winds to 30 kts or greater, there is potential that the
bands will work their way inland east of US 131 once again.
However, moisture depth does not look impressive and the DGZ will
be close to the ground, so smaller flake size will probably
result.

 

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Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

What a storm! Hopefully this is a sign of things to come for the rest of this winter! Fantastic!

Nathan (Forest Hills)
Nathan (Forest Hills)

Just measured 10.5 inches, up from 6.2 inches 24 hours ago. We had a quick burst of 2-3 inches this afternoon as the band moved through, in addition to the 1-2 inches from last evening through this morning.
The snow has finally stopped and moved SW

*SS*
*SS*

It sure is fluffy snow… For sledding paths made. Lol

Slim

I got the driveway cleared off. This is the first time I have used the snowblower this year really didn’t use it that much the last two winters. There has been light to at time moderate snow falling here for sometime now. I now have a total of 12.5″ of snow on the ground and in places it is up to 14″
Slim

Kyle (Portland, Ionia Co.)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia Co.)

In Downtown Grand Rapids right now. Snowing very hard. Freeways are snow covered once again on I-196

Slim

I have been getting light to moderate and at times heavy snow here for sometime this afternoon.
Slim

Nathan (Forest Hills)
Nathan (Forest Hills)

I measured 6.2 yesterday evening… I am only a couple miles from the airport so that goes to show lake effect is very local.
It is still snowing right now. Total snow depth is just over 7 inches.
Also Monday is looking really cold! I’ll be in Miami later next week so I’m trying to enjoy the cold pattern while it lasts

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Lucky you! Have fun, Nathan!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

What? GR had a daily snowfall record with 8 inches of SNOW! The old record was on the books for about 70 years!!! What a record breaking whopper of a storm and another bingo for the RDB model! I will be working on the driveway today with the snowblower and then this afternoon heading to the ski trails or for a snowshoe hike! It couldn’t get better than that! Get outside and enjoy winter!!! I love it!

Slim

Yesterdays snow fall was almost all lake effect. Officially Grand Rapids had 8.0″ at midnight for the month GR is now 13.7″ and for the season GR is now at 33.5″ At Muskegon they had a official reading of 5.3″ of new snow and now have 7.5″ for January and 17.3″ for the season. Now here is where the totals really drop from yesterday. At Lansing they reported an official new snow fall total of just 1.0″ for January there are now at 5.4″ and for the season 17.9″ On the east side of the state Detroit had just a… Read more »

Slim

The snow is now down to just a few flurries. Here at my house I took several measurements and came up with a average new snow fall total of around 9.5″ there is between 6 and 14″ of snow on the ground here (there are some areas with around 3″ where the snow blew off the most) The low here fell to 17 but is now back up to 23.
Slim

INDY
INDY

Sunday Im heading to Boyne mountain for my Mid Winter break the winter sports looks great this year lots of snow north and south in lower Michigan maybe I can even get some Ice fishing in mother Nature at its best during the best time of year!! From a snowy and cold YARDOFBRICKS InDY wow what a storm dig out day here we come!!

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

There are some serious snowfall reports over on the westside. Kudos to NWS GR for nailing another forecast. I imagine Rocky is out making snow angels this morning. 🙂 We received just a dusting. Most of my driveway is free from snow.

It’s supposed to drop to the single digits tonight. It’s hard to believe that we had back to back days in the 60s just three weeks ago. The next week looks pretty quiet, which will give you all a chance to dig yourselves out.

Have a great day, people!

Nathan (Forest Hills)
Nathan (Forest Hills)

I actually went golfing on my birthday only a few weeks ago. Wow that is crazy to think about