Yesterday our high was 61° with .21 of an inch of rain. This brings us to 2.70 inches for the month.
Today will be much nicer with sunny skies and temperatures in the mid-60s before rain moves back in for tonight and tomorrow morning.
NWS Forecast
Weather History
1902: A snowstorm drops from 1 to 6 inches of slushy snow across Lower Michigan. The four inches of snow at Muskegon is the latest measurable snow on record there
2006: A small weak tornado, determined to be a “landspout” moved through an open field near Schoolcraft in Kalamazoo County, doing no damage.
On May 10, 2003, 1-inch hail was reported in Wyandotte at 12:10 am. 3/4-inch hail was also reported in Redford and Wyandotte on this day.
1880: A tornado estimated to be F4 intensity moved across 20 miles of Scott and Morgan Counties in central Illinois. The tornado touched down near Alsey and moved northeast, passing 8 miles south of Jacksonville. The tornado was strongest in the Pisgah area, where 30 buildings were destroyed. Seven people were killed.
1905: On Wednesday, May 10th, 1905, the Oklahoma Territory was struck by one of the worst natural disasters in early American history. Tornadoes pounded the southwest part of the Territory, one of which flattened the town of Snyder. The “official” death toll is listed today as 97, but the actual number of victims may never be known. One hundred years later, this single tornado remains the second most deadly in Oklahoma history.
1953: Four, F4 tornadoes touched down in parts of eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. One F4 tornado moved northeast from northeast of Fountain City, Wisconsin to Colburn, Wisconsin. The total damage from this storm was $1 million, and it caused ten injuries.
The second F4 tornado moved from 5 miles southwest of Chester, Iowa to 4 miles northeast of Chatfield, Minnesota. One man was killed as his barn was destroyed one-mile southeast of Wykoff. A rural school was leveled 3 miles south of Chatfield as well.
The third F4 tornado moved northeast and passed about 2 miles northwest of St. Charles, Minnesota. Farms were torn up all along the track. An infant was killed, and four other people were injured in a car that was thrown 100 feet. Overall this tornado killed one person and injured 11 people.
The final F4 tornado moved across Rusk, Price, and Taylor counties in Wisconsin. Over $150,000 worth of damage resulted. An F3 tornado moved northeast across Clayton County, Iowa. At least 60 head of cattle were killed. A farmer was carried 700 feet but suffered only minor injuries.
2010: On this day, Oklahoma experienced its largest tornado outbreak since May 3, 1999. Fifty-five twisters tore through the state, including two rated EF4. The EF4 storms took three lives and injured 81 people. Ironically, both EF4 tornadoes struck Norman, Oklahoma, home of the Storm Prediction Center and the National Severe Storms Laboratory. Fourteen additional tornadoes hit Oklahoma during May 11-13. The May 10 disaster racked up insured property losses of $2 billion.
Forecast Discussion
- Fair Weather Today Morning fog near and north of M-20 will mix out shortly after sunrise. Shortwave ridging today will maintain benign weather with diurnal cumulus developing inland from Lake Michigan. There is a low chance of an afternoon shower or sprinkle east of US-131 and more so toward US-127, as depending on the height of the mid-level cap on the cumulus, cloud tops may reach -10 C per the HRRR, RAP, and ARW. One has to wonder if there will be a short window of time favoring dust devils around mid day, given the deep mixing layer and winds under 10 knots, just before cloud coverage increases and winds pick up during the afternoon. - Showers Tonight and Saturday An Alberta Clipper type trough will dig into the Great Lakes tonight and develop a surface low over Lower Michigan and Lake Huron on Saturday. A short period of rain is expected with a cold front tonight. The HREF models peg the arrival of rain at the Lake Michigan shore to be around or shortly after midnight, reaching eastern parts of Michigan around daybreak. Daytime Saturday will be breezy with west-northwest gusts around 25 mph. Showers and possibly a few thunderstorm cells may develop with surface heating particularly inland away from Lake Michigan. - Mainly Dry Sunday, But Some Showers and Storms Late Overall, Mother`s Day is shaping up to be mostly dry and mild, though a bit on the breezy side with 15-25 mph winds. A few showers can`t be ruled out near and north of U.S. 10 during the day. An upper low over Hudson Bay will push a weak surface cold front into the region Sunday night that will bring with it some showers and perhaps a few elevated thunderstorms. A few hundred J/kg of elevated instability looks to advect into the region as this front approaches. Best chance for rain looks to occur after sunset Sunday night. - Showers and a Few Storms Linger Monday into Tuesday The surface front won`t make a lot of southward progress into Monday as upper heights begin flattening out and upper forcing moves away from the region. However, ensemble and deterministic guidance indicates an upper trough or perhaps closed low will progress over the MO/IL vicinity by Tuesday, which may help force low level flow to turn northeasterly and begin dragging down drier air into the region. The timing of this is not yet certain, but ensemble probabilities are hinting at a drying trend north of I-96 by early Tuesday. GEFS 50th percentile 24 hr QPF amounts are about 0.10"- 0.25" region wide from 12z Monday to 12z Tuesday. The 24 hr period ending 12z Wednesday shows locations north of I-96 almost totally dry. In fact, the ECE 50th percentile QPF for this same period is dry for the entire region, and even the 75th percentile is almost totally dry from 12z Tuesday to 12z Wednesday. So, the best risk for rain comes Monday into Tuesday especially near and south of I-96. - Additional Rain Chances Thursday into Friday Ensemble guidance is indicating a period of mid level height rises over the Great Lakes Wednesday into Thursday out ahead of troughing that is suggested to occur over the Great Plains by Thursday. The ECE and GEFS mean 500 mb heights and vorticity are almost identical with this pattern for a day 7 forecast, which adds confidence to the synoptic pattern evolution. What this means for us is that rain chances will likely be returning for the late week period, but timing and amounts this far out are sketchy. The GEFS membership looks quite a bit wetter than the ECE or CMC. Still plenty of time to watch the ensemble trends.
Beautiful northern lights!! Took some .any pix!!!
The skies cleared for a bit!!!
NOAA has issued the first Severe Geomagnetic Storm Watch in 19 years:
https://www.space.com/solar-storm-coronal-mass-ejections-mothers-day-weekend-storm-watch
https://www.earth.com/news/noaa-issues-severe-geomagnetic-storm-watch-first-time-since-2005/
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GNKjG1VWAAAATgE?format=jpg&name=medium
Will we get to see it??
I meant is it going to be too cloudy?? I hope not…
Clouds moving in… Ugh!!!
The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 57/51 there was 0.01” of rainfall it was a cloudy day with just 2% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 68/47 the record high of 89 was in 1896 the record low of 22 was in 1966. The record rainfall of 3.53” fell in 1981 the record snow fall of 5.5” fell in 1902. That also ties the record snowfall for May. It is the latest day with 1” or more of snowfall. Last year the H/L was 75/45.
Slim
There was just a trace of rain fall here in MBY yesterday and overnight. The overnight low here was 43 and the current temperature is 45 with clear skies.
Slim
TODAY’S NUMBER
300
That’s around how many tornadoes have been reported in the US over the last two weeks. April and May are typically the busiest months for tornadoes in the country, but meteorologists say the pace this month has been extraordinary.
I wonder if the flip from a strong El Nino to what looks like a La Nina has anything to do with the number of storms this spring.
Slim
Makes sense, especially if the switch is/was quick and dramatic.