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Pleasant Today – Rain Saturday – The Michigan Weather Center
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Pleasant Today – Rain Saturday

Yesterday our high was 61° with .21 of an inch of rain.  This brings us to 2.70 inches for the month.

Today will be much nicer with sunny skies and temperatures in the mid-60s before rain moves back in for tonight and tomorrow morning.

NWS Forecast

Sunny, with a high near 64. Light and variable wind becoming west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph in the morning.
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before 5 am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5 am. Low around 47. South southwest wind 6 to 10 mph. The chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts to less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly before 7 am. Partly sunny, with a high near 59. Breezy, with a west-northwest wind of 11 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 41. Northwest wind 9 to 14 mph becoming light west after midnight.
Sunny, with a high near 72. Light south-southwest wind becoming west-southwest 9 to 14 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 22 mph.
Sunday Night
A 50 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 55. Breezy.
A 40 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 72.
Monday Night
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 50.
A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 67.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low of around 48.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 73.
Wednesday Night
A chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 52.
A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 75.

Weather History

1902: A snowstorm drops from 1 to 6 inches of slushy snow across Lower Michigan. The four inches of snow at Muskegon is the latest measurable snow on record there

2006: A small weak tornado, determined to be a “landspout” moved through an open field near Schoolcraft in Kalamazoo County, doing no damage.

On May 10, 2003, 1-inch hail was reported in Wyandotte at 12:10 am. 3/4-inch hail was also reported in Redford and Wyandotte on this day.

1880: A tornado estimated to be F4 intensity moved across 20 miles of Scott and Morgan Counties in central Illinois. The tornado touched down near Alsey and moved northeast, passing 8 miles south of Jacksonville. The tornado was strongest in the Pisgah area, where 30 buildings were destroyed. Seven people were killed.

1905: On Wednesday, May 10th, 1905, the Oklahoma Territory was struck by one of the worst natural disasters in early American history. Tornadoes pounded the southwest part of the Territory, one of which flattened the town of Snyder. The “official” death toll is listed today as 97, but the actual number of victims may never be known. One hundred years later, this single tornado remains the second most deadly in Oklahoma history.

1953: Four, F4 tornadoes touched down in parts of eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. One F4 tornado moved northeast from northeast of Fountain City, Wisconsin to Colburn, Wisconsin. The total damage from this storm was $1 million, and it caused ten injuries.

The second F4 tornado moved from 5 miles southwest of Chester, Iowa to 4 miles northeast of Chatfield, Minnesota. One man was killed as his barn was destroyed one-mile southeast of Wykoff. A rural school was leveled 3 miles south of Chatfield as well.

The third F4 tornado moved northeast and passed about 2 miles northwest of St. Charles, Minnesota. Farms were torn up all along the track. An infant was killed, and four other people were injured in a car that was thrown 100 feet. Overall this tornado killed one person and injured 11 people.

The final F4 tornado moved across Rusk, Price, and Taylor counties in Wisconsin. Over $150,000 worth of damage resulted. An F3 tornado moved northeast across Clayton County, Iowa. At least 60 head of cattle were killed. A farmer was carried 700 feet but suffered only minor injuries.

2010: On this day, Oklahoma experienced its largest tornado outbreak since May 3, 1999. Fifty-five twisters tore through the state, including two rated EF4. The EF4 storms took three lives and injured 81 people. Ironically, both EF4 tornadoes struck Norman, Oklahoma, home of the Storm Prediction Center and the National Severe Storms Laboratory. Fourteen additional tornadoes hit Oklahoma during May 11-13. The May 10 disaster racked up insured property losses of $2 billion.

Forecast Discussion

- Fair Weather Today

Morning fog near and north of M-20 will mix out shortly after
sunrise. Shortwave ridging today will maintain benign weather with
diurnal cumulus developing inland from Lake Michigan. There is a low
chance of an afternoon shower or sprinkle east of US-131 and more so
toward US-127, as depending on the height of the mid-level cap on
the cumulus, cloud tops may reach -10 C per the HRRR, RAP, and ARW.
One has to wonder if there will be a short window of time favoring
dust devils around mid day, given the deep mixing layer and winds
under 10 knots, just before cloud coverage increases and winds
pick up during the afternoon.

- Showers Tonight and Saturday

An Alberta Clipper type trough will dig into the Great Lakes tonight
and develop a surface low over Lower Michigan and Lake Huron on
Saturday. A short period of rain is expected with a cold front
tonight. The HREF models peg the arrival of rain at the Lake
Michigan shore to be around or shortly after midnight, reaching
eastern parts of Michigan around daybreak. Daytime Saturday will be
breezy with west-northwest gusts around 25 mph. Showers and possibly
a few thunderstorm cells may develop with surface heating
particularly inland away from Lake Michigan.

- Mainly Dry Sunday, But Some Showers and Storms Late

Overall, Mother`s Day is shaping up to be mostly dry and mild,
though a bit on the breezy side with 15-25 mph winds. A few showers
can`t be ruled out near and north of U.S. 10 during the day. An
upper low over Hudson Bay will push a weak surface cold front into
the region Sunday night that will bring with it some showers and
perhaps a few elevated thunderstorms. A few hundred J/kg of elevated
instability looks to advect into the region as this front
approaches. Best chance for rain looks to occur after sunset Sunday

- Showers and a Few Storms Linger Monday into Tuesday

The surface front won`t make a lot of southward progress into Monday
as upper heights begin flattening out and upper forcing moves away
from the region. However, ensemble and deterministic guidance
indicates an upper trough or perhaps closed low will progress over
the MO/IL vicinity by Tuesday, which may help force low level flow
to turn northeasterly and begin dragging down drier air into the
region. The timing of this is not yet certain, but ensemble
probabilities are hinting at a drying trend north of I-96 by early
Tuesday. GEFS 50th percentile 24 hr QPF amounts are about 0.10"-
0.25" region wide from 12z Monday to 12z Tuesday. The 24 hr period
ending 12z Wednesday shows locations north of I-96 almost totally
dry. In fact, the ECE 50th percentile QPF for this same period is
dry for the entire region, and even the 75th percentile is almost
totally dry from 12z Tuesday to 12z Wednesday. So, the best risk for
rain comes Monday into Tuesday especially near and south of I-96.

- Additional Rain Chances Thursday into Friday

Ensemble guidance is indicating a period of mid level height rises
over the Great Lakes Wednesday into Thursday out ahead of troughing
that is suggested to occur over the Great Plains by Thursday. The
ECE and GEFS mean 500 mb heights and vorticity are almost identical
with this pattern for a day 7 forecast, which adds confidence to the
synoptic pattern evolution. What this means for us is that rain
chances will likely be returning for the late week period, but
timing and amounts this far out are sketchy. The GEFS membership
looks quite a bit wetter than the ECE or CMC. Still plenty of time
to watch the ensemble trends.
newest oldest

Beautiful northern lights!! Took some .any pix!!!
The skies cleared for a bit!!!

Mark (East Lansing)

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 57/51 there was 0.01” of rainfall it was a cloudy day with just 2% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 68/47 the record high of 89 was in 1896 the record low of 22 was in 1966. The record rainfall of 3.53” fell in 1981 the record snow fall of 5.5” fell in 1902. That also ties the record snowfall for May. It is the latest day with 1” or more of snowfall. Last year the H/L was 75/45.


There was just a trace of rain fall here in MBY yesterday and overnight. The overnight low here was 43 and the current temperature is 45 with clear skies.

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)



That’s around how many tornadoes have been reported in the US over the last two weeks. April and May are typically the busiest months for tornadoes in the country, but meteorologists say the pace this month has been extraordinary.


I wonder if the flip from a strong El Nino to what looks like a La Nina has anything to do with the number of storms this spring.

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Makes sense, especially if the switch is/was quick and dramatic.