Welcome to the first day of meteorological fall! The CPC outlook for the month is for above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation. These conditions will (allegedly) persist for the first two weeks of the month until we have a reversal into week three. It will be hot over the northern U.S. through the holiday weekend…
Grand Rapids Forecast
9 1 grrU.S.A and Global Events for September 1st:
1859: One of the largest geomagnetic storms on record occurred on this day in 1859. Click HERE for more information from NASA.
1862: The Battle of Ox Hill (or Chantilly) is also known as the only major Civil War battle to have been fought during a storm. “A severe thunderstorm erupted, resulting in limited visibility and an increased dependence on the bayonet, as the rain soaked the ammunition of the infantry and made it useless.” From Taylor, Paul. He Hath Loosed the Fateful Lightning: The Battle of Ox Hill (Chantilly), September 1, 1862.
Color lithograph “General Kearney’s gallant charge,” published by John Smith, 804 Market St, Philadelphia. The image is courtesy of the Library of Congress.
1869: Cleveland Abbe issued the first Weather Bulletin for the city of Cincinnati, Ohio. It contained a few observations telegraphed from distant observers and the “probabilities” for the next day. The bulletin was written by hand.
1894: The Great Hinckley Fire, which burned an area of at least 200,000 acres or perhaps more than 250,000 acres including the town of Hinckley, Minnesota occurred on this day. The official death count was 418 though the actual number of fatalities was likely higher.
1928: Leslie Gray from the Weather Bureau in San Franciso was the first weather forecaster to be deployed to a wildfire.
Click HERE for more information from the NWS IMET Operations.
1952: A cold front brought damaging winds to Fort Worth, Texas, including the Carswell Air Force Base where thirty-five B-36 planes received damage. The anemometer indicated 90 mph winds before being smashed by debris. Click HERE for more information from the website theaviationgeekclub.com
From the Climatological Data for Texas, September 1952.
1961: An F4 tornado traveled through parts of Butler and Bremer Counties in Iowa. Unfortunately, there is limited information in the Storm Data entry about this event. Per Thomas Grazulis in Significant Tornadoes, the tornado began NW of Dumont and ended NE of Horton. Several farms along the path were “leveled”. It was reported at one farm that fruit jars were “sucked out of the basement” after the house was swept away. There were 7 injuries reported with this event and zero fatalities. Click HERE for more information from TornadoTalk.com
1974: Lt. Judy Neuffer became the first female to fly a Hurricane Hunter aircraft through the eye of a hurricane.
The newspaper clipping above is courtesy of The Day, published on September 4th, 1974. Click HERE for a link to the newspaper.
The satellite image above is Hurricane Carmen on September 1, 1974. This image is courtesy of the National Hurricane Center.
2017: The temperature at Downtown San Fransico reached 106° setting their all-time record high. The previous record was 103° on June 14th, 2000.
Forecast Discussion
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Fair wx will continue through the short term fcst period with a high pressure ridge continuing in control of the wx pattern today. Isolated to patchy ground fog early this morning will dissipate quickly by mid morning. High temps will reach the upper 70`s to lower 80`s this afternoon. A consensus of short range time height rh progs suggests that some sct-bkn mostly high cloud cover will move in from the upper midwest tonight and Saturday. Strengthening south to southwest flow waa and filtered sun will combine to boost high temps into the lower to middle 80`s Saturday (except somewhat cooler near the Lake MI shoreline given the onshore component to winds). .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) - Several Days of Warmth and Dry Weather Our existing forecast of a multi-day period of very warm and also dry conditions seems right on track. Ensemble mean 500 mb heights continue to show favorable upper ridge positioning to allow low level warm advection of 20C-25C temps at 850 mb around the edge of the ridge. This is one of the better upper ridge positionings that we`ve had all summer to allow for maximum surface heating. Most of our long term climatological stations have had summer max temps of 91 to 93 degrees, and this setup favors temps as warm as the low 90s, so there is a chance of tying or perhaps breaking the summetime max temps that have been recorded thus far. Dry conditions will dominate the Sunday through Tuesday time frame. - Possible Rain By Next Wednesday or Thursday Ensemble guidance mean 500 mb heights show troughing trying to break down the upper ridge by the middle of next week. As is often the case at longer ranges, the ECE is slower to bring the pattern change compared to the GEFS (or maybe it is better said that the GEFS is typically quicker). Timing uncertainties exist at this range, but ensemble mean PWATs of 1.50"-1.75" are shown along with likely probabilities for 500 J/kg or more of SB CAPE ahead of an expected cold front that will swing through. That could potentially occur Wednesday or Thursday. Thus, showers and thunderstorms will be a possibility at that time but it is too far out to determine the significance given ensemble spread.
1st day of September and it will end up as another below normal temp day! Wow, just wow, WOW!
Fall schmall. It’s football season! 🙂
Oh and Go Green!
Can’t watch a lot when Disney pulled all their channels from Spectrum.
Anyone else put on Earth, Wind and Fire? My family loves the ember months… I change it and sing it all through time. Lol
Have a great day!!
Welcome to meteorological fall. The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 73/47 there was 100% of possible sunshine. There were 5 HDD’s and 0 CDD’s for today the average H/L is 79/58 the record high of 97 was set in 1953 and the record low of 40 was set in 1896. The record rain fall amount of 1.05” fell in 1905. Last year the H/L was 84/59.
Slim
In looking back at meteorological summer the mean at Grand Rapids for June was 68.8 at Lansing in June it was also 68.8. In July at GR the mean was 71.9 and at Lansing it was 72.8. In August the mean at GR was 69.3 and at Lansing it was 69.2. For meteorological summer the mean at Grand Rapids was 70.0 and at Lansing it was 70.3. At both Grand Rapids and Lansing there were 9 days of 90 or better the average for meteorological summer at both locations is 10. The highest reading at Grand Rapids was 91 and… Read more »
What? A below normal temp summer in GR! Who knew? It looks like all the warm weather hype was just that! Hype and lies! Incredible!