We have had .16 of an inch of rain which began last night. Yesterday’s high was 53ˆ and the low 35°. We have a wet and chilly 38° at 6:30 this morning here in Otsego.
It won’t be pleasant today if you plan on being outside. Occasional showers will persist into Tuesday. Rain may mix with snow early this morning, then again tonight into Tuesday morning; some light (but brief) snow accumulations are possible on grassy areas. Gusty winds will also occur Monday and Tuesday; strongest gusts are expected at the lakeshore (45–55 mph), where some power outages are possible.
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...Mason, Oceana, Muskegon, Ottawa, Allegan and Van Buren counties. * WHEN...From 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and scattered power outages may result.
Forecast Discussion
Forecast concerns today deal with wind potential today through Tuesday and precipitation trends through Tuesday. The evolution of a deep upper trough continues to unfold over the Great Lakes. The result will be an intrusion of colder air, increasing wind, and rain mixed with snow showers during the next 48 hours. As the surface low over NE Lower deepens and drops south, a building high over the Northern Plains will tighten the pressure gradient over the U.P today. That tighter gradient moves south later today and we`ll see our winds strengthen, especially near the lake shore. The model trend in hourly probabilistic ensemble wind guidance has been upward over the last few model cycles. This gives increasing confidence we`ll realize wind advisory criteria along the lake shore. That guidance shows a greater than 60 percent probability of seeing 40 mph wind gusts at Ludington. At South Haven, the probability jumps to 90 percent at 40 mph and 25 percent at 50 mph. Bufkit overview along the lake shore show strong mixing into the 40- 50 kt layer so we are confident we`ll see wind advisory criteria. As such, we have issued a Wind Advisory for the lake shore beginning this afternoon and running through Tuesday evening. The main impacts will be scattered power outages. Lake effect convection will be in full production mode given lake delta t`s around 20c, deep moisture and steep lapse rates. MUCAPE values over the lake are progd to be in the 200-300 j/kg range with some of that clipping the lake shore counties. Thus, isolated thunderstorms are possible too, mainly west of US-131. Tonight will be the best time to see snow showers. Two locations in the cwa could see some accumulations. The first is over interior portions of the northern cwa where higher elevations will lead to colder temperatures. The second is over the far southwest cwa where the NAMNest shows a strong band of convection moving SSE and clipping the western lake shore from Allegan County to Van Buren County. Dynamic cooling could compensate for the warm lake temperatures to produce snow showers and accumulations may result. Rain showers will continue Tuesday, but the precipitation will quickly transition to rain as warmer air moves in as the low moves east. Winds will begin to diminish Tuesday night and drier air will return Wednesday. Although temperatures will be cold for the next couple of days, highs will moderate back to the 60s by the weekend as a stronger south wind develops.
Winter Storm Warning for the U.P.
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy, wet snow continues through Tuesday morning, resulting in poor travel conditions. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 10 inches are expected in the higher terrain a few miles inland from Lake Superior with locally higher totals approaching 16 inches possible across the Michigamme Highlands. Near the shoreline, little or no snow accumulation will occur due to rain only mixing with the snow at times. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph through this evening then as high as 50 mph into early Tuesday morning. * WHERE...Baraga and Marquette Counties. * WHEN...Until 11 AM EDT Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible in some high terrain areas. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning and evening commutes today and the Tuesday morning commute. Gusty winds and wet snow could bring down tree branches, resulting in potentially widespread power outages.
We’re getting our first frozen precip of the season. Tiny ice pellets all over our back deck.
I had small hail that came down hard enough to cover the ground. It has now mostly melted.
Slim
I’m up along M-46 in Montcalm County and it’s really starting to come down as snow now. No accumulations currently. 34 degrees
The good news is that this weather pattern shouldn’t last too long. We have some great weather coming later this week again.
It kind of reminds me of thanksgiving weather today (but way out of season!)
Good morning. The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 52/39 there was an official 0.19” of rain fall reported. And just 4% of possible sunshine. There was no reported snow fall. Here in MBY as of 8 AM this morning I recorded 0.54” of rain fall much of that falling overnight. There was a good amount of small hail in a heavy shower yesterday afternoon. The overnight low and current temperature here in my yard was/is 38. For today the average H/L is now down to 60/42 the record high of 84 was set in 1947 and the record… Read more »
Nice day – Mid October and wind chills in the low 30’s the next couple days! Wow, just wow!