Yesterday we only managed .04 inches of rainfall in Otsego which brings us to .91 inches for the month and 6.90 inches for meteorological summer. The lawns are nice and green and the corn and soybeans have sprung back to life and looking good after the dry spell we had earlier in the summer. We are on track for a wonderful summer day today with temperatures rising to the upper 70s to near 80°. Tomorrow we have a wet system moving in with a slight risk of excessive rainfall.
WPC Outlook
The low that develops over the northern Plains and upper Midwest Day 1/Sun will continue slowly tracking eastward as the vigorous upper level shortwave supporting the low gradually weakens through Monday night. The low will siphon off a bit of the abundant Gulf moisture south of it and track it ahead of and north of the low center as it tracks east. The area of heaviest rain from southern WI and the Chicagoland area east across Lake Michigan and much of the southern L.P. of MI is largely from wraparound rain that will persist to the north of the low center. Instability is likely to be limited in this area, with the flash flooding threat largely resulting from the long duration of the light to moderate rainfall, which is likely to persist in some areas for more than 12 hours. The above isn't to say that there will be no instability, as in fact some convective elements are likely to be present as the low advects some instability as well as moisture from the south into the region. However, extreme rainfall rates are not expected. The areas most likely to see flash flooding are the urban centers, which include Milwaukee, Chicago, and Detroit.
Grand Rapids Forecast
8 13 grrU.S.A and Global Events for August 13th
1831: The Great Barbados Hurricane was an intense Category 4 hurricane that left cataclysmic damage across the Caribbean and Louisiana in 1831. From August 11 through the 13, Bermudians were amazed to see the sun with a decidedly blue appearance, giving off an eerie blue light when it shone into rooms and other enclosed places. Ships at sea as far west as Cape Hatteras reported that “their white sails appeared a light blue colour.” A month later it was learned that the astounding blue sunlight had coincided with a terrible hurricane that caused 1,477 people to lose their lives. It was assumed that the hurricane was intensive enough to cause an unusual disturbance in the higher atmospheric strata and refraction, diffraction, or absorption of light rays, to produce the blue reflection. Because the sun appeared bluish-green, Nat Turner took this as the final signal and began a slave rebellion a week later on August 21.
1987: A succession of thunderstorms produced rainfall that was unprecedented in 116 years of precipitation records at Chicago, Illinois during an 18-hour period from the evening of the 13th to the early afternoon of the 14th. The resulting flash flood was the worst ever to strike the Chicago metropolitan area, causing three deaths and water damage that amounted to 221 million dollars. O’Hare International Airport received an event total of 9.35 inches of rain in 18 hours, shattering the previous 24-hour record of 6.24 inches. For about 24 hours, the airport was only accessible from the air as all roads were blocked by high water, including the Kennedy Expressway.
1991: Stockton, California received 0.05 inches of rainfall on this day. Since 1949, this is the only measured rainfall in Stockton on August 13th.
2003: A string of days in Paris France with temperatures from the 4th to the 12th above 95°F ends when the day’s high drops to 90°F. During the long, hot summer which began 25 July and has registered several days above 100°F, an estimated 14,800 have died from heat-related causes, the French government admits. Click HERE for more information from NASA’s Earth Observatory.
2014: An official, New York State 24-hour precipitation record was set at Islip, NY on August 12-13 when 13.57″ of rain fell.
Forecast Discussion
- Risk for heavy rain developing Monday continues Models continue to show a stronger than normal mid to upper level wave moving in Monday which will lead to the potential heavy rain event. With climbing PWAT values to 1.5 inches or better and falling heights through the column as the wave moves in, the risk for heavy rain in the afternoon still looks good. Overall a trend toward a slightly later arrival of the rain has developed in some of the models. The High Res Euro features mostly a dry morning for Monday. The CMC ensemble forecasts also suggest a slower arrival of the rain. Ensemble qpf values feature considerable spread so, some uncertainty in the location and amounts exists. We will delay the likely or better POPs until after 15z Mon. - Stronger storms Monday? The High Res Euro actually has also trended toward a little more instability Monday. Surface based lifted index values are shown to climb into the -2 to -4 deg C range across Southern Lower MI from this model. The 0 to 6 km bulk shear also rises to over 50 knots. Given the stronger deep layer shear and some surface based instability, this will be something to monitor as we could see some organized low topped storms if this trend continues. Not all models have this and most ensemble forecasts suggest any strong storm risk is low at this time but again, trends are important. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Monday night should see some heavier rain persist into the overnight hours with a slow progression toward drier weather by late morning/early afternoon on Tuesday. Some overnight impacts possible with the heavy rain especially in poor drainage areas or places that typically take on water in heavier rain. Dry stretch through Wednesday and into early Thursday before the next system brings some additional rain late Thursday-Friday time frame. Overall temperatures through this week will hover in the mid to upper 70s with a warming trend starting to look likely for next week.
The official H/L yesterday was 80/65 there was officially 0.16” of rain fall (there was just 0.02” here in MBY) officially there was 66% of possible sunshine the highest wind gust was 27 MPH out of the west. For today the average H/L is 81/62 the record high of 97 was set in 1918 the record low of 44 was set in 1941. Last year not only was the record rain fall amount of 1.85” fell but it was also the coldest maximum with a high of only 62 and a low of 56.
Slim
Today looks very nice, tomorrow could be very cool and wet. The rest of the week looks to be cooler than average with maybe a chance of showers on Thursday. Highs for most of the week will be in the mid to upper 70’s and lows mostly in the 50’s.
Slim
I see the NWS is still giving the GR area 1 to 2 inches of rain! Will it happen this time? A similar forecast last week yielded absolutely ZERO rainfall!
The key word in their precipitation forecast is “possible.” So maybe or maybe not.
I would hope that professional Mets could narrow it down better than “maybe or Maybe Not” I might have to fine turn the RDB model and use it for rainfall as well as the proven winter snowfall model accuracy! Incredible!
I love cool summers! Let’s keep this pattern rocking and rolling! What a year so far! Below to normal temps have ruled! Incredible!
I agree. Give me 80 and sunny any day. It has been a very nice summer.
Yes it never needs to get above 80 degrees as far as I am concerned!
We’re at the lake. After a rainy start, yesterday turned out to be a gorgeous day. We saw so many meteors last night. It was a friendly competition to see who could the most. Have a great day, everyone.
It was great to have clear skies last night.
Slim