We will have the makings for a wet system moving in for today and tonight thanks to low pressure coming from the west and a warm front from the south. Rain will develop this afternoon as the low pressure approaches the region. Locally heavy rainfall is possible in a few of the stronger thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts could range from one to two inches across southern lower Michigan. Temperatures will range from the upper 60s near US-10 to mid-70s near I-94.
WPC Forecast
Grand Rapids Forecast
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U.S.A and Global Events for August 14th:
1953: Hurricane Barbara hits North Carolina as a Category 2 hurricane. Damage from the storm was relatively minor, totaling around $1.3 million (1953 USD). Most of it occurred in North Carolina and Virginia from crop damage. The hurricane left several injuries, and some traffic accidents, as well as seven fatalities in the eastern United States; at least two were due to electrocution from downed power lines. Offshore in Atlantic Canada, a small boat sunk, killing its crew of two.
1969: Hurricane Camille, a powerful, deadly, and destructive hurricane formed just west of the Cayman Islands on this day. It rapidly intensified, and by the time it reached western Cuba the next day, it was a Category 3 hurricane. Hurricane Camille was spawned on August 5th by a tropical wave off the coast of Africa. The storm became a tropical disturbance four days later on the 9th and a tropical storm on the 14th with a 999-millibar pressure center and 55 mph surface winds.
1975: In London, England, a localized torrential downpour known as The Hampstead Storm, drops 6.72 inches of rain in 155 minutes at Hampstead Heath. One died in the storm. The water floods the Underground and forces sewer covers up.
Forecast Discussion
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 325 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023 - Risk for Heavy rain This Afternoon into Tonight The slow moving mid to upper level wave seen on satellite imagery over MN is forecast to track through Lower MI tonight. Rain will be spreading into the zones as deeper moisture advection combines with increasing lift during the afternoon. The rain will then persist through the evening before winding down after midnight. PWATs climb to at least 1.5 inches and forecast soundings show a potential for efficient rainfall. The 00z KMPX sounding captured this well. Stronger mid level FGEN is forecast roughly along and south of I-96 here in MI peaking around 00z Tue. So far the system has a large area of moderate rain with pockets of heavier rain in east central MN. Rainfall rates have generally been around a quarter of an inch per hour in that region with isolated higher rates. The area of rain will need to increase when it arrives here in MI to be able to generate enough rainfall to start some flooding. While confidence on the axis of heavy rain being near or south of I-96 is high, the ensemble mean values suggest the flood risk is still marginal. We should monitor the system closely as it tracks towards the region during the day as an expanding area of rain with increasing rates would support a higher flood risk. No Flood Watch at this time. - Stronger storms possible later this afternoon into the evening Based on the incoming RAP model, MU CAPE values are forecast to climb into the 500 to 1000 J/kg range south of the I-96 during this timeframe. At the same time, deep layer shear tops 35 knots as a mid level jet advects in from the southwest. Also a warm front will be in the general region. All this would be more concerning if there was a low level jet aimed into this region, however that feature is tracking through OH. Still we should monitor the setup closely given the parameters forecast parameters. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) ...Rain possible Wednesday night/Thursday... There`s one decent chance of rain in the extended and it`s Wednesday night through Thursday. After a couple of days of dry weather behind today`s exiting low, another sharp upper trough will swing through the Great Lakes. The ECMWF version is higher amplitude than the GFS and as such produces rain farther south than the GFS. The GFS suggests that rain won`t much make it south of I-96, but the ECMWF paints the entire CWA. We`re leaning toward the ECMWF. The cold front associated with the trough will act on a narrow ribbon of high precipitable water ahead of it. PWATs Wednesday night/Thursday are similar to today, but more confined to near the cold front. Despite the low level jet weakening as it moves into Michigan, shear values in the 35 to 45 kt range will help any storms that develop to organize a bit. The real issue though may be the lack of instability. At this early stage, instability may only be a few hundred j/kg which isn`t impressive. But, we`ll wait and see how future model runs handle this. A dry weekend is expected as high pressure builds in following the trough. Temperatures will be in the 70s through Friday, after which a warming trend into the 80s is expected over the weekend.
1.65 inches of rain so far and counting!
It seems like it has been raining heavy for hours. Earlier we had thunder and lightning. I have a river forming in the back. I am glad we are at the top of the hill. Everyone stay dry out there.
1.35 inches of rain in Otsego thus far
What a summer! I haven’t needed to water the lawn for weeks and plenty of below normal temps! Incredible and keep the near to below normal temp pattern rocking! I love it!
Risk for Heavy rain through early Tuesday
Latest radar shows scattered showers beginning to overspread the
northern half of the CWA especially along the US 10 corridor. Heavy
precipitation is moving out of southern Illinois and will engulf the
Southern half of Lower Michigan bringing periods of heavy rainfall
which could cause flooding late this afternoon and through the
overnight into Tuesday morning. Due to this a flood watch has been
issued.
A slow moving upper level low with a well defined comma cloud
continues to move through central Iowa and is bringing a band of
showers out ahead of it. That low is currently moving through
Illinois and Wisconsin. Rain rates are deceptively intense with
this system especially given the lack of high reflectivity. There
have been LSR`s out of Wisconsin of 3.4 inches and 2.31 inches in
6 hours with the bulk of the rain falling within 3 hours.
This system given; the pattern and progression of the upper level
low, the reduced reflectivity and given the time of year has the
hallmarks of a Subtle Heavy Rainfall Signature event or (SHRS)
Spayd and Scofield (1983).
The thick cloud edge can be seen on latest Visible satellite and
shows the slow progression of the low. Timing seems fairly
consistent at this point with the heaviest rainfall moving through
southern lower Michigan between 21Z to 03Z Tuesday. The biggest
question is determining and tracking the position of the pivot
point for the low. For POPS have trended towards NBM with the HREF
and consshort. The HREF PMM values are be anomalously high for
QPF but based on WPC QPF and model trends have gone with a
widespread 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts of 3 inches
or more. There have been some ensemble members with higher amounts
but not realistic at this time. The Current track of heaviest
precipitation will be along and south of the I 96 corridor and
north of the I 94 corridor.
Thunderstorms will bring locally higher amounts of rainfall.
However, due to the reduced heating, increased CIN, the lack of
instability and the position of the low, any severe weather
threat has shifted to the south.
https://michigan-weather-center.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/nws-fl-814.png
Flood Watch issued
Muskegon-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-Allegan-Barry-Eaton-Ingham-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson
“Storm total rainfall amounts of widespread 1 to 2 inches and locally 3 or more will be possible. Urban areas and flood prone roadways will be of particular concern especially after sunset and will be a hazard for nighttime driving.”
After a light early morning shower the sun is actually peaking through the clouds with a current temp of 70.
I don’t buy into any of the rain forecasts at this time. Computer models have handled our events poorly. I’ll stick to watching out the window and watching my rain gauge.
They say the heavy rain potential is the greatest 1-96 South! I say watch out between US 10 and I 96 because you may just get absolutely hammered with rain! Mark it down and get prepared now!
So far! GR has seen far more below normal temp months that above normal this year! The near to below normal temp pattern has been locked in for months! I love cool summers! Wow, just wow, WOW! rock n roll baby!
So far, we are on track for our 16th warm month in a row!
The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 78/61. There was a trace of rain fall, 59% of possible sunshine. The day had 0 HDD’s for August GR is at 2. There were 5 CDD’s and for the month GR is at 80. For today the average H/L is 81/62 the record high of 96 was set in 1944 and the record low of 41 was set in 1964. The record rain fall was in 1987 when a whopping 3.61” fell. Last year it was a cool 72/56 with 0.06” of rain fall.
Slim
Today looks to have rain there is lessor chances of heavy rain for today. After today there looks to be a couple days of dry weather before another chance of rain on Wednesday. Temperatures will be below average until Saturday then it looks to be warm over the weekend.
Slim
So, it might rain today?
It’s “possible.” 😄
We might not see substantial rain and we might not?
I have a feeling that is will rain today… that would be a pretty significant forecast miss
I wonder how long it will take for the rain to get here? Most of the rain is still a ways to our NW
Slim