I found this to be interesting. this is from NOAA the web site it is no is not longer updated, Also a heads up I will be taking a trip starting on January 15th or 16th and will be gone until January 30th Between the 20th and 27th I will NOT have a internet connection at all so I will not be leaving any comments during that time. I will have a pre written post for Michael to post for the 20th
The roots of numerical weather prediction can be traced back to the work of Vilhelm Bjerknes, a Norwegian physicist who has been called the father of modern meteorology. In 1904, he published a paper suggesting that it would be possible to forecast the weather by solving a system of nonlinear partial differential equations.
A British mathematician named Lewis Fry Richardson spent three years developing Bjerknes’s techniques and procedures to solve these equations. Armed with no more than a slide rule and a table of logarithms, and working among the World War I battlefields of France where he was a member of an ambulance unit, Richardson computed a prediction for the change in pressure at a single point over a six-hour period. The calculation took him six weeks, and the prediction turned out to be completely unrealistic, but his efforts were a glimpse into the future of weather forecasting.
Richardson foresaw a “forecast factory,” where he calculated that 64,000 human “computers,” each responsible for a small part of the globe, would be needed to keep “pace with the weather” in order to predict weather conditions. They would be housed in a circular hall like a theater, with galleries going around the room and a map painted on the walls and ceiling. A conductor located in the center of the hall would coordinate the calculations using colored lights…
While Richardson’s vision never became a reality, the use of mathematics to predict the weather did develop over the years. This article looks at the evolution of a science that NOAA uses everyday to deliver the weather forecasts upon which we have come to rely on.
Several decades passed after Richardson’s initial efforts in numerical weather prediction. During this time, meteorological observation, research, and technology struggled to reach the level necessary to make the computations envisioned by Richardson.
Small, yet significant, milestones were reached during the early part of the 20th century. The first meteorological radiosonde, a balloon carrying instruments to measure atmospheric temperature, pressure, humidity, and winds, was launched in the United States in 1937. In World War II, American pilots over the South Pacific felt the effects of the jet stream, a current of fast-moving air found in the upper levels of the atmosphere whose presence had previously only been theorized. Communication technology grew to allow hundreds of meteorological observations to be collected from around the globe. Most importantly, by the end of World War II, the first electronic computer was developed. Now, those 64,000 human “computers” envisioned by Richardson could be replaced by a single machine, albeit one that filled a 30 x 50 foot room.
Next week will be part two. Here is a comparison of this winter so far the to the winter of 2013/17 at this time. Note I do not believe this winter will be like the winter of 2013/14 but may be more like last winter instead.
This year December at Grand Rapids had a mean of 24.4° In December 2013 the mean was 26.1° so this December was colder in snow fall This December GRR reported 32.9” in 2013 it was 34.7” so 2013 was a little snowier as of January 5th this year GRR had a seasonal total of 36.7” in 2014 as of January 5th the total was 45.9” so at this point in the winter of 2013/14 GRR had more snow fall. Note there was a 5 day January thaw in January from the 10th to the 14th
At Detroit December 2013 the mean temperature was 26.8° This year the mean was 26.6ׄ° so this December was just a little colder then 2013 at Detroit. As for snow fall in December of 2013 Detroit reported 15.5” of snow and this year it was 22.5” as of January 5th the seasonal snow fall in 2013/14 was 37.7” and this year it is now at 23.0” so the winter of 2013/14 was snowier but not colder at both Detroit and Grand Rapids.
Slim
Get ready! There will be a snowstorm in your neighborhood soon! ROCK n ROLL will never die!
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2018010618&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=384
With the warmer temps coming it has to be after next Thursday. This week is going to put a dent in how much snow is on the ground here. I really don’t like a cold rain.
What a day over in Muskegon! Two feet of SNOW on the ground! Let me describe the snow conditions and the winter wonderland scenery! WOW, INCREDIBLE, BEAUTIFUL, FANTASTIC, GORGEOUS, BREATHTAKING, UNBELIEVABLE, SPECTACULAR, PERFECT, AWESOME, ETC, ETC!
Look at these pretty colors!! WARMTH everywhere!!
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif
BREAKING NEWS
This just in the 12Z run of the GFS is now forecasting temperatures to reach 60° yes that is right 60° on January 21st with a lot and I mean a lot of rain. If this plays out (it has been showing up for several runs now) this will be one historic January thaw, In fact I will try and see if I can find one anywhere close to it.
Slim
Heck yeah Slim!!! Keep the good news about the WARMTH coming!!! Might have to start shining up the golf clubs if these models keep coming in nicely like this! Who would have thought, Who Knew, and INCREDIBLE!
If that happens, it would be exactly one year to the day it hit 61 in Kalamazoo. It was sunny on that day.
Almost sounds outrageous, but not entirely surprising given the long term pattern we’ve been in. Could the past couple weeks just be a little blip on the overall extended warm pattern??
Won’t happen and it will not even be close!
Thunder with snow on the ground . Major fog coming!! Andy INDY will be ready INDY !
Yes sir!! Grilling and Sprites!!
My low last night was -9.8. What a cold stretch. The sun makes it seem much warmer out there.
Bill says to get out and enjoy the day today for the Winter Lovers because the MELT is coming! This is going to be a very good weekend for winter sports. Today (Sat.) will be on the chilly side, but winds should be relatively light and we may catch a little sun between the clouds. With the warm-up coming next week, much of our snow is going to melt, so if you like winter sports or just being outdoors, this could be a good day for that. The NAM model gives G.R. a high of 16 today, 28 tomorrow PM… Read more »
INDY, you might be grilling at the Yard of Bricks on Thursday watching those THUNDERSTORMS come in!
So much for the long cold winter! A little cool down next weekend, then another WARM up!! WHO KNEW?!??! Bring back a winter 2017 repeat!
https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/USMI0722:1:US
Here is a interesting bit from this mornings GRR ADF
”
IT WOULDN’T ENTIRELY SURPRISE ME TO SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER EARLY
THURSDAY; ELEVATED LI/S FALL TO AROUND 0C OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA,
MUCAPE IS NON ZERO, AND THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE NEGATIVE.
THE IMPACT FROM THIS RAIN MAY BE LOCALIZED PONDING DUE TO SNOW
CLOGGED STORM DRAINS.”
Slim
Climatology for today January 6th At Grand Rapids, MI
The average H/L is 31/19°
The record high is 57° set om 2008 the coldest maximum is 7 in 1912
The record low is -12° set in 1988 the warmest minimum is 42 set in 1998
The largest snow fall is 11.0” in 1917
The most on the ground is 18” in 1999
Last year the H/L was 14/2 there was 1” on snow on the ground.
Slim
There is a big temperature spread across the Grand Rapids metro area at this time the last reading at GRR was +3° BUT here at my house I now have a -10° with clear skies. Dont look now but the GFS is now putting out a possible high of near 60 on January 21
Slim
Snowmageddon in west Michigan! No where to put it !! With the air getting a little more juicy look our for big snowstorms coming.. INDYDOG!!
So much for a big extended warm up! Bring back the arctic express!!! This is from the GR NWS! I absolutely love it!!
“The second much stronger Asian jet core
actually creates a large ridge in front of it when it gets past
the dateline late next week. That will result in bringing the
arctic air back to our area late new week or surely by that
weekend”.
With mid 40’s coming in a few days, could we be making a run at 50 degrees? A lot of the time when there’s a big warmup, the forecast temperatures are usually underdone and we end up exceeding them.
It’s cold outside -10 out at the YARDOFBRICKS with about 16 inches of snow on the ground!! More records being broke what a Winter sofar with temps getting a little closer to avg now look for big winter storms coming. Still no sign of a big flood over 60 inches of snow on the ground in South Haven wow!! INDYDOG!!
Nice write up Slim!
So as we approach the mid point of Winter, and somehow with all the cold we have less snow than last year, it is curious if we will go another year without a major, shutdown snow storm. It’s now been almost 7 or 8 years since our last big snow storm/blizzard, and with nothing showing up in the forecasts, one has to wonder how many years will,pass before we get our next big storm?
NWS says 44° for Thursday. I’ll be happy just to have our road cleared. It’s a frozen, bumpy mess.