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Transitions

Posted on by MichaelV (Otsego)

This stretch of very cold and at times record-breaking weather is approaching two weeks. Dec 25-31 was the coldest final week to any year on record. Temperatures stayed below 20 degrees for 12 days in a row at Grand Rapids — one day shy of the record (1912).

The record setting cold streak is finally coming to an end as temperatures tomorrow will begin to rise closer to normal values. For the past 12 days, Detroit and Flint have not seen temperatures above 20°F. This breaks the record of 11 days achieved in 1936 and 1979 at Detroit, and ties the record set in 1979 at Flint.

It has been cold in the Tri-Cities region (Saginaw, Midland and Bay City) as well, but a high of 21°F on January 2nd ended the sub-20°F streak early there. Record low temperatures (both low overnight minimums and low daytime maximums) have been set at all three sites and are outlined in the graphic. Tonight’s lows will remain cold, below the 0°F mark for most with wind chills in the -5 to -15°F range, but temperatures will begin a warming trend this week with highs tomorrow reaching the mid 20s.

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To the left is the NAM model through the next four days depicting a mix of snow, freezing rain and rain over the period.  We will start a warming trend which will melt a good portion of the snow.  We will see temperatures in the 40s Wednesday and Thursday before they drop back into the 20s on Friday.

Occasional snow is expected today with a more widespread snow tonight. Accumulations of an inch or less can be expected today with 1 to 4 inches tonight. The snow today will be associated with a warm front.

Tonight`s snow will be along and ahead of a cold front. Overall, milder air is expected this week with a warming trend right through the work week. Highs will finally reach the 30s the next couple days and even push into the 40s mid week. Rain is in the forecast for the middle of the week in the warmer air.

With temperatures rising over the next few days it will feel like a heat wave and some of us will be out in t-shirts and shorts. 🙂

Today: Snow showers likely, mainly between 10am and 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 27. Wind chill values as low as -8. South southwest wind 15 to 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Tonight: Snow. Temperature rising to around 32 by 1am. South southwest wind 13 to 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of around 3 inches.

Monday: A 30 percent chance of snow before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. West southwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 21. West northwest wind 8 to 14 mph.

Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 32. Light and variable wind becoming south around 6 mph in the afternoon.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27.

Wednesday: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Wednesday Night: Showers likely, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41.

Thursday: Periods of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 47.

Thursday Night: Scattered rain showers before 11pm, then scattered snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 28.

Friday Night: Scattered snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13.

Saturday: Scattered snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 22.

 

Category: Michigan Weather Forecast

41 thoughts on “Transitions”

  1. Very slippery out at thee YARDofBRICKS schools will be closed tomorrow in the GR area my kids will love that a extra day of vacation INDYDOG!

    1. Looking slippery out this way too. Grandkids hoping for an extra day off too.

  2. Tomorrow is the first day back to school for our kids. Of course, they’re hoping for one more day off. They’ve only had one snow day this year, so I’m kinda hoping for them too.

    2. I sure hope you’re right! If we lose all this snow, we need it back quickly!

    3. If we get that ice they’re talking about, that will be awful! Winter Storm Warnings for sure! Gonna have to make sure the generator is ready if this pans out!

  5. Let me describe the snow conditions today for outdoor winter sports. HEAVEN ON EARTH!!!!

  6. This sounds very interesting?

    The last couple operational runs of the ECMWF is developing a
    deepening sfc low tracking by to our southeast for Friday night into
    Saturday, suggesting the possibility of a significant synoptic
    system with hvy freezing rain changing to snow and strong winds.

  7. Just thought I’d ask the group, anyone know where I can find legitimate observed high temps for locations other than Grand Rapids? My wife is working on a blanket and she is using a strand of yarn that each color represents a different high temperature range for each day. So 0-10 degrees is a light blue, 11-20 is a darker blue, 21-30 is an even darker blue and so on. So being in Northern Kent County I imagine our temps are slightly different than GRR Airport. Let me know if you guys have something. Thanks!!

  9. Anyone see the heat wave in Sydney, Australia? Temps hit 117 degrees! They had a cricket match cancelled because the temp on field was 135 degrees! That is some crazy heat!

    1. That’s insane! I was just catching up on Bill’s Blog. Pelston was -31° Friday morning and -35° Saturday morning. 170° colder than the cricket match Down Under!

  10. Winter weather advisory out or west Michigan looks like roads could become slick this afternoon be safe out there!! INDYWEATHER!!

    1. It’s not bad right now INDY. If you’ve got some stuff to pick up from the store, get it now before the ice hits!

  11. Michael, it’s a shame that your blog is infiltrated with a bunch of people that act like 13 year olds trying to get each other riled up about Huge warm-ups vs. endless winter. Yep, that was an insult to many posters here…

    Perhaps you should have a separate discussion for people who actually enjoy talking about meteorology and potentials…

    1. Hey Matt, I think the blog has been very good lately. I will always focus on winter because that is my favorite season and Andy will always focus on warm temps because he obviously HATES winter! There has been a lot of good information and links shared on the blog this winter!

      1. I don’t mind Winter, I do hate arctic fronts that keep temps in the teens and below zero for weeks on end. Temps in the 30’s with snow are great days! I would take that all winter. But waking up at 6 am for work everyday, starting and brushing off the car in subzero temps has been absolutely miserable these past couple weeks!! Also, the treacherous driving because the air is too cold for the salt to work is horrible!! On top of that the sky high heating bills for the furnace running all day is ridiculous!! Favorite seasons are definitely spring and fall, not a big fan of summer heat at all!

  12. Only one more day to go folks of this cold weather! The winds of change are already starting to blow in! In a few days we’ll be basking in WARMTH!! Get that MELTING going!!!

  13. Just another PERFECT winter day! COLD, SNOW and perfect outdoor winter sports conditions. Time to take the sleds out for a day of snowmobiling! While the warm weather fanatics are clamoring for a big warm up I will be out enjoying WINTER!!!! Rock n Roll baby!

  14. 2016/17 vs 2017/18 snow fall total at Grand Rapids. So far this season Grand Rapids has recorded 36.7” of snow fall. Last season as of January 6th the total here was 40.2” so this season continues to fall below last season that this point!
    Slim

  15. Climatology for today January 7th At Grand Rapids, MI
    The record High for today is 63° set in 2008 the coldest maximum is +4° set in 1942
    The record low is -15° set in 1988 the warmest minimum is 51° set in 2008
    The biggest snow fall is 5.4” in 1962
    The most on the ground is 20” in 1999
    Last year the H/L was 15/7° there was 2.2” of snow fall and 2” on the ground.
    Slim

  16. Here comes the warm up! The long term weeklies show warm temps all the way to the end of February. That was a quick winter this year!

    1. Yep Mookie, I don’t mind a two week Winter! A couple of little cold snaps here and there like next weekend, but the WARMTH and MELTING is going to overpower that! Gotta love it!!

  17. For several runs in a row now the long range GFS is showing a massive warm up around the 19th to 22nd time frame. This has temperatures in the mid to upper 50’s and even up as high as 60° Along with this warm up there would be a lot of rain. I can not find this type of storm that has hit our area in January. Getting into the 50’s and even the 60’s are not all that uncommon in January but get that high with a rain storm is a little more rare we shall see. (by the way I will not be in Grand Rapids at that time)
    slim

    1. Keep the good news coming Slim!! Would be AWESOME to get that WARMTH in the middle to end of January! OUTSTANDING!!

      1. Ha! That’s a bubble like we have here over us during the Summer. There will be storms to the West, East, North, and South of us, and we will get nothing!

  20. Funny Michael! But I am still in T-shirt’s and shorts everyday at work. The last time I wore pants instead of shorts was the last blizzard we had 7 or 8 years ago. I had no problem with the past two weeks, so easy sailing from here on out! I just overheat way to fast.

  21. Local met this morning said chances of freezing rain for later this evening have increased. We sure don’t need that. They called for 1-2″ here and 2-4″ near the lakeshore by tomorrow morning.

    1. Fortunately we will be seeing mainly SNOW! Little if any freezing rain/drizzle!

  22. What a winter! GR has almost 40 inches of snow so far with 3 more months of COLD and SNOW! After a brief warm up look for tons MORE SNOW THIS WINTER!

    1. Don’t look now BUT if the long range GFS is right All of this snow will be long gone in two weeks. For many runs in a row the GFS has a big storm the week of the 19/21 and with it brings up a ton of warm air and tons of rain. I think the model may be too far west but if it is right there will only be snow piles
      Slim

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