February
Next week we will flip the calendar over to February. Last week I looked at the two biggest blizzards I have seen. And next week is the anniversary of the last big true blizzard to hit this area. On February 1st and 2nd in 2011 a big storm system hit the southern great Lakes area. With less wind than the 1967 and 1978 storms the one in 2011 none the less had some good snow fall totals. The official totals for the two day event were Grand Rapids 17.2” Muskegon 13.8” Lansing 13.3” On the east side of the state Detroit 10.3” Flint 11.1” Saginaw 12.1” On the other side of the lake Milwaukee 17.9” Madison 14.3” and at Chicago a whopping 20.2” There has not been a storm of that magnitude here since. Also remember that with NE winds that was not lake effect.
In February Grand Rapids starts out the month with 9 hours 58 minutes on the 1st and ends the month /with 11 hours 10 minutes on the 28th. Grand Rapids has a average mean temperature of 26.6° The coldest February on record is 13.3° in 2015 and the warmest of 34.7° in 2017. The average H/L starts out at 30.8/17.8 on the 1st and is up to 37.8°/22.4 by the 28th. On average Grand Rapids has 2.12” of total precipitation the least was just 0.21” in 1907 and the most was 5.30” in 1938. On average there is 17.2” of snow fall the least was just 0.5” in 1998 and the most was 41.6” in 2008. The biggest snowstorms were 11.3” on February 3rd 2007 and 11.1” on February 2nd 2011. In February 1945 not one day had 1” or more of snow on the ground there have been many years with 28 or 29 days with 1” of snow on the ground.
This past week it was brought up that the coldest days on average are happing later in the winter season. Well, that is also true here in Grand Rapids (and I am sure at most other locations) In the 1981/2010 the average days of the coldest mean at Grand Rapids was January 21 to the 23rd with a daily mean of 24.0. In the new 30 years average (1991/2020) the coldest mean of 23.9° was between January 25th and the 27th and in the new 15 year average (2006/2020) the mean of 23.7 was between January 31st and February 4th So what to make of this? The days of the coldest mean are now later but they are colder then then they were in the 1981/2010 time.
Well, I took a look to see how the warmest days in summer compared to the past at Grand Rapids. The warmest days in the 1981/2010 period the average warmest mean was 72.7 between July 10th to the 20th. In the 30 year mean in the 1991/2020 period rose to 73.0 and the dates were between July 11th and the 20th (not much change there) but in the newest 15 year period 2006/2020 the mean was up to 74.0 and the dates were between July 18 to the 21st. Bottom line is that compared the the 1981/2010 period the warmest days in July have gotten warmer and the warmest of the days have moved somewhat later into July.
Slim
Skiing here I go! Great winter for outdoor sports, despite the constant warm weather fantasies! Incredible!
Great news…..the latest CPC shows extended cold all month! Fantastic!
Shhhhh lol….Its so much winter fun we are having they warmth few is grasping about Michigan snowstorms now not much left in the tank ..let it snow let it snow ..InDY,!
Wow so much for a quiet time currently its snowing again in my area who would of thought??? Thee record snow pack days continues across west Michigan yeahh even in Zland Michigan!! Love it!! InDY
It looks like multiple models are trending a little more to the North! Hopefully it trends about another 50 to 100 to the North and then the rock n roll party will begin!
Interesting info Slim 👍
Time for some facts! We do not see huge snowstorms on a regular basis and we never have! A snowstorm of 6 plus inches is huge and we have seen plenty of these over the past few years! Incredible!
That is true. Almost half of the snow Grand Rapids gets in a typical winter is lake effect. We are too far inland to get the heaviest of the lake effect in most cases. We do better with a west wind but not good at all with a NW wind. And for some reason we are not in the right location for most big system snows the SE and the UP typically do better in that regard. So yes for Grand Rapids 6″ in a rather big event. But I would put 8″ as a bigger event as in the… Read more »
+1
Thanks Slim. 11 years since our last true blizzard/snowstorm. Seems like a lifetime ago.
My snowstorm thoughts as of now Muskegon Grand Rapids through Saginaw south sweet spot for 12+ inches of snow with Winter storm watches coming Monday..This has been a dandy tracking as it comes on shore in California now we should no more by this afternoon…Get the shovels ready or should I say SNOW plows ..Have a good Saturday go Blue big game today …InDY 💙
Wow and I hope you are spot in! Bring it!
I Had to laugh just a few days ago Wood tv 8 was saying a warming trend coming next week we could be having ice Jam’s flooding temps in the 40’s funny how they changed there tone bottom line again no warm air in sight thats been the Winter theme around here ongoing I must say I love it!! InDY
This is the webcam from Bar Harbor Maine not far from where I used to live. I ate many a good lobster there.
https://youtu.be/Fq29SqC1hB0
-4 this am. The sky is on 🔥. Gorgeous sunrise this morning.
The model battle has begun! I am rooting for the GFS, because their latest trend is back to the North with heavy snow in our area! As MV said it is too early to lock into the path yet! The ingredient are there! Gulf moisture and cold air feeding into the system! It may gain strength and pull this baby right at us! Let’s hope we get pummeled with snow! Stay tuned!
The GFS and NAVGEM show similar storm paths the other three I look at are giving us a couple of inches of snow, needless to say very cold air will be coming at the end of next week. Computer programs that try to predict the weather more than a couple of days out are iffy and best.
No doubt a lot of uncertainty at this point, however a lot of potential!
This Feb will be cold and snowy! Mark it down!
The official overnight low so far at GRR was +1. Here at my house with clouds hanging in it was a warmer +11. At this time the official reading is +9 and here at my house it it 12. There is now 6.0″ of snow on the ground. And yes it now looks like a good amount of the snow will be to the SE of here next week. But it still looks to get cold next weekend.
Slim
Some of the latest models are trending for midweeks storm to go SE of Michigan where the heaviest snow will fall. Still too early to say for sure, will have a better idea by Monday.
We descended into negative temps (barely) for a daily low yesterday of -0.8. We are currently at 8 degrees. Yesterday’s high temps were 22 degrees.