The SPC forecast for today has now included most of Michigan in the slight risk (level 2) for severe storms. Large hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy downpours are all possible in any thunderstorms and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.
An upper trough will shift east across much of the Midwest today and become oriented from western NY/PA to coastal NC by Friday morning. This will result in a large swath of enhanced mid/upper low flow ahead of an eastward-advancing surface cold front and atop a seasonally moist airmass. By midday, the cold front is forecast to be oriented from northern Lower MI into northern IL/MO. The mid-60s to low 70s F dewpoints beneath a pocket of steeper midlevel lapse rates will support a corridor of strong destabilization (MLCAPE to 3000 J/kg) from near IN into southern Lower MI and western OH. Some early-day convection is possible in a warm advection regime ahead of the approaching trough and surface front. This activity may limit overall thunderstorm coverage later in the day, precluding higher severe probabilities. Early-day convection may pose an isolated risk for large hail/strong gusts.
WPC Rainfall Forecast
Grand Rapids Forecast
7 20 grrLansing Forecast
7 20 lanKalamazoo Forecast
7 20 kzoForecast Discussion
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 335 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023 - Some Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Possible Today Radar trends early this morning indicate a weakening area of showers with some embedded thunderstorms across central Wisconsin. This primarily elevated activity is moving into a region with less MUCAPE across eastern Wisconsin and eventually Lake Michigan, though a reservoir of some surface based instability does exist over the lake. This may be just enough to keep the storms from totally dissipating before potentially impacting areas mainly north of Muskegon. Some localized small hail and gusty winds may occur if the storms hold together, but probably nothing severe. Otherwise, 00z HREF guidance is indicating solid SBCAPE building near and east of US 131 ahead of a surface cold front today. Values may exceed 2000-2500 J/kg depending on residual cloud cover from early morning precipitation. HRRR soundings between GRR and LAN at 18z indicate 0-6 km shear of 35-40 kts and DCAPE values over 1000 J/kg. There also looks to be sufficient CAPE in the -10C to -20C for hail growth. This pre-frontal region roughly along and east of US 131 from about 17z-23z looks fairly primed for scattered to numerous thunderstorm development, some strong to severe, with damaging wind gusts and large hail the two main threats. Tornado potential looks low given less than optimal 0-1 km and 0-3 km shear, somewhat high LCLs, and hodographs that are not very curved in the lowest 3 km. HREF`s max 2-5 km updraft helicity values show the region east of US 127 and especially the thumb region as having a risk for a tornado to develop. - Dry Weather Friday Decreasing clouds are expected Friday with a gradual increase in sunshine. Soundings look very dry and thus no precipitation is expected. Highs around 80 are forecast. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 335 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023 -Gusty winds with Beach Hazards will continue through Friday Post frontal northerly flow will dominate the pattern Friday. The large mid to upper level low will continue to trek through Eastern Canada. At the m id levels the gradients will be orientated due north as the height field moves across the state. Looking at the mid range models, there is very little directional shear and winds will still be in the 20 to 25 kt range from 925 mb through 700 mb. The upper level flow will actually be convergent through the most of the daytime. That pattern will fuel dry and breezy conditions with beach hazards being the primary concern. The north sides of north piers will be the most hazardous place to swim due to brisk NNW flow. This includes Stearns Park at Ludington, Holland State Park, and North Beach at South Haven. -Successive Troughs into next week The dominant weather pattern through the weekend and into next week will be a large quasi stationary high located over the desert SW. Primarily it is situated over the four corners. That high has an extended ridge that will filter all the passing lows over it and through Michigan, this weekend and into next week. The big question is will any of those successive troughs have enough lift, instability and moisture to allow for showers and storms. The first will be a trough on Saturday. While an upper level trough will be situated over the region there is mid level divergence and drier air overhead so convection will be quite stifled. The next will be on Sunday. A short wave trough traversing the upper Midwest will move through the Great Lakes with decent diurnal heating with highs in the 80s. While moisture fields aren`t great, they are improved compared with the negative precipitation anomalies of Friday and Saturday. So there should be enough moisture, instability aloft and heating for storms to form Sunday afternoon and evening. Otherwise upper troughing and northwest flow aloft persists into the early part of next week, supporting more periodic shower/storm chances. Daily timing/coverage/intensity hard to pin down at this time due to uncertainties in jet streak/shortwave timing, but diurnal convection should tend to be focused inland from the lake shadow, generally favoring areas east of Highway 131. -Pattern change and increasing temperatures mid next week The beforementioned high will finally start to shift mid to late next week. That will bring the high over the area and will shift all the hot temperatures which should bring strong warm air advection. Strong support in ensemble guidance for at least a few days with high temps exceeding 90 after 7/26 or so.
Great day today! Comfortable temps and beneficial rainfall! How is that possible?
I would imagine the drought is about dried up now …. lots of rain and below normal temperatures have been the rule lately… around western Michigan….INDY
I was in Davison east of Flint in the tennis ball/baseball size hail storm. Widespread vehicle damage and shattered windows. Biggest and most destructive hail I’ve ever seen.
I saw the pictures. Pretty crazy.
We are back home now will go over the trip on Saturday. I was going to post but did NOT have internet. Had some very heavy rain in Lansing but when we got home there was just 0.4″ of total rain fall since we left.
Slim
Only mid 70’s here with nice breeze! This is a great below normal temp afternoon! I love it!
Severe thunderstorm warning here now. Looks like heaviest stuff, including lightning will miss us to the north and the south. Very breezy, but only a few drops so far and just a couple of rumbles of thunder.
On the way home ran into a very heavy rain storm. Lots of rain did not see any lightning there as some wind and some leaves flying off the trees.
Slim
8000 or so power outages in the Lansing area from the wind. We only got about five minutes of rain here.
A quick, breezy, 1/4 inch of “needed” rain.
We got 0.8” in less than 15 min. Hardest rain of the year.
Sounds great!
The National Weather Service in Grand Rapids has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for… Southern Kent County in southwestern Michigan… Ionia County in south central Michigan… * Until 215 PM EDT. * At 131 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Carson City to near Grandville, moving east at 55 mph. HAZARD…60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. SOURCE…Radar indicated. IMPACT…Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include… Grand Rapids… Ionia… Portland… Wyoming… Kentwood… Grandville… East Grand Rapids… Belding… Lowell… Lake Odessa… Caledonia… Saranac… Gerald R. Ford Inter… Ada… Orleans…… Read more »
Yep I’d agree with that. We had a good 5-8 minutes of very intense gusts.
Despite the warm weather hype on here, GR is only at 80 degrees and this could end up as yet another below normal temp day for us! Who would have thought?
Nope. But it was a pretty rare day that was exactly even. Just a normal hot and sunny mid July day.
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=GRR&issuedby=GRR&product=CLI&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0
This was another good rain producer and the rain and threatening weather will be out of Kent County soon! Please cancel the watch, because it is over!!!
It’s become hot and humid quickly. 86 temp with a heat index of 88 currently
Hot and humid here as well. Anyone who thinks this is “cool” I have some magical beans to sell them.
We picked a quick 1/2 inch of rain in about 15 minutes and now the sun is out! The rain and cool temps just keep coming and coming! Wow, just wow, wow!
I’ll happily take the rain, but looks like I’ll be missing the worst of the storm
Same here. Looks like the tail end of the line might just swipe us. Should be good for about 5 minutes of rain. Our dry period continues….
Well make that almost 4 minutes of a little bit of rain. Even more humid out now than it was earlier.
The storm was more eventful than I was expecting here, quite a bit of gusty winds. But only about 8ish minutes long
Let it rain, let it rain , let it rain!!!!
Radar looks “promising” for a quick punch from the NW. Sadly, experience trumps “oromising”…fingers crossed.
“promising”
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 522 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS MIC005-011-015-017-025-035-037-045-049-051-057-063-065-067-069- 073-075-077-081-087-091-093-099-107-111-115-117-125-129-139-145- 147-151-155-157-159-161-163-210000- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0522.230720T1620Z-230721T0000Z/ MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGAN ARENAC BARRY BAY CALHOUN CLARE CLINTON EATON GENESEE GLADWIN GRATIOT HURON INGHAM IONIA IOSCO ISABELLA JACKSON KALAMAZOO KENT LAPEER LENAWEE LIVINGSTON MACOMB MECOSTA MIDLAND MONROE MONTCALM OAKLAND OGEMAW OTTAWA SAGINAW SANILAC SHIAWASSEE ST. CLAIR TUSCOLA VAN BUREN WASHTENAW WAYNE
Bring on the rain! I love cool summers with regular rain! My lawn looks great!
Storm near Reed City is rotating no doubt. No tornado warning as it’s not tight enough yet but the severe thunderstorm warning mentions possible tornado.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1122 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023 LATEST UPDATE… Update .UPDATE… Issued at 1122 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023 Tstms in NW Lwr MI are occuring directly ahead of the approaching mid level shortwave/vort max and also in area of decent sfc convergence with SBCapes 1000-1500 J/KG. The tail which is extending southwest into west central Lwr MI represents the sfc cold front. Convection expected to expand farther southwest with time as the front continues east this afternoon ahead of building instability with RAP MLCapes progged near 2000 J/KG by… Read more »
80% chance of a watch being issued
Sweet
More below normal temps on the the way, at least for the next 6 straights days! This below normal temp pattern has been awesome! I love cool summers and with minimal heat waves! Incredible!
More 90+ days on the way! What a long warm summer – and sunny too!
Quite the nice morning! Looks like the worst storms will be to the east, closer to Lansing and toward Detroit. Hopefully we are able to get something in Grand Rapids