Another month has come and gone and we firmly place our feet into the first month of meteorological winter. Two of my cats have the right idea of a long winter’s nap. This is Monster and the youngest member of the family Maizie. Monster is the big black one, he adopted Maizie soon after we brought her home as a rescue cat several months ago. They are pretty much inseparable.
Today will be calmer than yesterday with gradually clearing skies which will be welcome after the windy day yesterday. The high was 55° at midnight and quickly fell to 28° which was our low for the day.
Forecast concerns deal with precipitation Friday night ahead of the next cold front. Water vapor imagery shows the short wave that moved through yesterday is now moving across NY/PA. In its wake is ridging which has caused the lake effect snow showers to end; radar is pretty much devoid of echos at present. IR loop shows lake effect clouds are still present, however, but they too will thin out this afternoon. So, we`re looking at a dry day and a half until the approach of the next cold front later Friday. A short wave crossing the Rockies will develop a lee cyclone over the Dakotas before it moves northeast across the western Great Lakes. Condensation pressure deficits begin falling around 21z Friday but don`t really crash until closer 00z Saturday, which is when we should see rain develop across the western cwa and then move east; boundary layer temperatures are a bit too warm for snow ahead of the front. Fropa occurs around 06z after which any lingering precipitation will turn to a brief period of light snow. A brief period of lake effect snow will probably develop Saturday morning over the western cwa, but will be short lived and any accums will be less than an inch. High pressure quickly moves across the MO/OH Valleys Saturday night and Sunday ahead of a clipper moving across Ontario. This system looks like it will remain far enough north of the cwa so that we will remain dry. Models show a southern stream wave trying to merge with a northern stream wave on Monday which may produce some light snow across west MI and that would likely linger into Tuesday. Thus, we have several chances for light snow as well as some light rain over the next few days, but no significant accumulations.