Warmer Today – Weather History

Yesterday we had a temperature difference of 4° between our high and low.  The high was 64° the low was 60°.  According to my digital rain gauge we had .25 of an inch yesterday, I haven’t checked the analog gauge, it is too early to run outside at 4 am.

Today should remain dry with some sun and warmer temps before the rain moves back in tonight with our next system approaching the state.


Weather History for SW Michigan

October 10

1879: Southwest Lower Michigan is in the midst of a long spell of warm weather. Lansing rises into the 80s for seven out of the eight days from October 5th through the 12th. This includes the record high of 84 degrees on October 10th, which was preceded by a record 83 degrees on the 9th and followed by 85 degrees on the 11th.

1906: An early-season snowstorm drops 4 to 8 inches of snow from Ludington to South Haven. Temperatures plunge into the teens the next morning, killing thousands of fruit trees, enough to alter the agricultural economy of southwest Lower Michigan.

October 11

1912: A late evening tornado hit Gratiot County. Five farms sustained damage along a five-mile-long path. An elderly woman was killed and her son injured as their home was blown apart southwest of Alma.

October 12

2006: A record early season snowstorm brings up to eight inches of snow to southwest Lower Michigan. Tree damage and power outages were extensive around Hastings in Barry County as the wet, heavy snow clings to the tree branches, which still had leaves on them.

October 13

1874: A record cold snap struck Lower Michigan with Lansing plunging to 16 degrees.

1975: Record warmth occurred with highs in the 80s. The 87 degrees at Grand Rapids was a record for the date and the highest temperature for so late in the season.

October 14

1954: A tornado destroyed an empty schoolhouse at Ashley in Gratiot County. It also took the roof off one house and a porch off of another.

October 15

1899: Muskegon hits 86 degrees for their highest October temperature on record.

1944: Cold air is firmly entrenched in Lower Michigan with record lows of 23 degrees at Grand Rapids and 25 degrees at Muskegon.

October 16

1943: A snowstorm drops an inch or two of slushy snow across southwest Lower Michigan. The high temperature at Grand Rapids and Lansing is only 39 degrees.


Weather History for SE Michigan

October 10

On October 10, 1949, a three-day period of record highs in Flint ended. Temperatures ranged from 84 degrees on the 8th, 82 degrees on the 9th and 85 degrees on the 10th.

October 11

On October 11, 1949, record-high precipitation occurred, with 3.27 inches of rainfall recorded in Detroit.

October 12

On October 12, 2006, the earliest measurable snowfall occurred in Detroit, Flint and Saginaw. Detroit recorded 0.2 inches of snow, Flint received 2.3 inches of snow, and Saginaw had 0.3 inches of snow.

Also in 1995, late-season heat gave record highs to all three sites, Detroit (84 degrees), Flint (82 degrees) and Saginaw (83 degrees).

October 13

On October 13, 1909, The second earliest measurable snowfall occurred in Detroit with an amount of 0.4 inches of snow. Also on this date in 1999, Detroit received 3/4-inch hail at 11:15 am.

October 14

On October 14, 1989, Detroit and Flint share record highs on this date with 83 degrees and 82 degrees respectively.

October 15

On October 15, 1952, Saginaw reports 0.04″ rainfall. This is one of only three days where measurable rain is recorded this October, the driest on record with 0.18″ total. Also for this month, Flint had the 5th driest month on record.

October 16

On October 16, 1938, a two-day streak of 85 degrees occurred in Detroit. Both the 16th and 17th had 85 degrees as the high and these are records for both days.


Forecast Discussion

- Chance of showers/storms Tonight

A weakening cold front will move into the area tonight which will
bring the chance for showers and a few thunderstorms. Dew points
will climb into the middle 60s once again with PWAT values rising
to around 1.8 inches. The best forcing will be well to the west
and northwest of the region as an upper low lifts from the
Northern Plains into Canada. The SPC HREF is showing MUCAPE values
reaching the 500-750 J/KG range. Nothing to get too excited about
but enough to produced some thunderstorms that will be forced by
the front. The 4-hour max reflectivity prog from the HREF shows
multiple waves of showers tonight into Thursday morning with the
chance of embedded thunderstorms. Given the lack of upper support,
not expecting anything severe at this point and agree with the SPC
in taking the marginal risk area to the west of our area.

- Precipitation chances continue Thursday and Friday

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue from Thursday
into Friday. MUCAPE values in the NAMnest rise to 1,000-2,000 J/KG
during the afternoon of both days. The surface front stalls over
the area on Thursday with a wave of low pressure sliding up the
front on Friday. The precipitation will likely linger into Friday
night before ending on Saturday. Some swaths of 1-2 inches of rain
are certainly possible by Saturday morning. We are not expecting
any hydro issues at this point.

A brief surge of cooler air swings in behind the front on Friday
night and Saturday with a taste of fall. The GFS and ECMWF take
850mb temps down to -1C and +1C for midday on Saturday
respectively. This is by far the coolest air of the fall and it
will be noticeable. Our highs on Saturday are in the lower to
middle 50s for the most part.

- Mainly dry conditions Saturday Night through next Tuesday

1000-700mb layer relative humidity values dry out from this period
as compared to Today through Saturday. Mainly dry weather is
expected as a ridge moves through the area both at the surface and
aloft. There is a weak front moving into the area Tuesday into
Tuesday night, but as for now the models keep it dry in our area.
Temperatures should rebound a bit as 850mb temps climb to +11C to
+12C Monday/Tuesday. We look to nudge back to above normal
temperatures again early next week.

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INDY
INDY

What more rain coming whats new will October end up like September with above normal rainfall?? West Michigan is well on its way!! Soon it will be snow rock n roll on will never die ….INDY

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

It has been extremely rainy and cloudy lately! Bring on the snow!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

How about some sun? Very wet Fall so far!

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

Guess you forgot about September already which was near record sunshine and very dry.

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Mookie
Mookie

What? It’s been like sunny and warm almost everyday!

INDY
INDY

Tell me about everyother day it rains lol

Slim

Here at my house there was a light rain/mist for much of the day yesterday and a total of 0.18″ of rain fell. For the month of October now the mean at Grand Rapids is 66.3 that is a departure of +11.2 At Holland the mean is now at 68.0 and that is a departure of +12.8 At Muskegon the mean is now at 67.8 for a departure of +11.8 and to the east at Lansing the current mean is 67.0 for a departure of +12.6. The bottom line is that the 1st part of October 2021 is more like… Read more »

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

Those continue to be some crazy departures from average. I imagine there aren’t to many months in the past that ended having double digit departures from average.

Nathan (forest Hills)
Nathan (forest Hills)

March 2012 is the only one I can think of.

Slim

It happens more often in the cold months of December, January, February and March. Here are some months that have had departures of 10° or more. January a departure of -13 in 1912. February a departure of -13.3 in 2013. March a departure of +15 2012 March a departure of -11.8 1960. April to November there have yet to be any years to have a departure of 10° or more. December -13.3 1989. The biggest departures for October are -8.6 in 1925 and +7.6 in 1900. We will have to see how the rest of this month plays out. My… Read more »