After an extended period of warm weather, we will see a more fall-like pattern developing today with temps in the 60s. Yesterday our high was 80° and the low was 61°. We have had 1.10 inches of rain from the low passing through the area thus far which brings us to 2.78 inches for the month with more on the way this week. It is currently 61° at 6:00 am. Our normals for this time of year are low to mid-60s.
We will be in an unsettled pattern for the rest of the week with periods of rain and temps in the 60s to low 70s until Saturday when daytime highs will be only in the 50s.
- Showers and cooler today into this evening Today will be more fall like then we have been used to over the past two weeks. This will be due to cooler temperatures, low clouds, and periods of lake enhanced showers into early tonight. The early fall storm that caused the thunderstorms Monday evening has occluded and will slowly lift northeast over the next 24 hours. It will take until nearly sunrise Wednesday to bring us out of the cyclonic flow around that system. We will loose the deep moisture by sunrise as the upper trough passes east of Southwest Michigan. However we stay in the deep cold air aloft and we remain on the cyclonic side of the upper jet feature around that system. So, even though the clouds will not be deep enough for heterogeneous nucleation, we will have vigorous enough lift the the shallow clouds that remain to process warm process rain. So, expect showers into early tonight as a result of that. In fact the HREF 6 hour ensemble probability of measurable rain is greater than 90 percent near US-131 through noon and 60 to 80 percent through the afternoon. Even tonight through midnight is has between 30 and 50 percent near and west of US-131. So we do feature showers today into tonight. We will still average nearly 10 degrees above normal today even with the clouds and showers. This is mostly due to the warm low temperatures Wednesday morning. The normal low for this time of year is from the upper 30s north and lower to mid 40s central and south. Our actual lows Wednesday morning will be in the 50s. This morning we will struggle to even get near 60 degrees. So, again, while cooler than the past 5 days, we will still be significantly warmer than normal. As an aside, the mean low temperature, for the month of October, through the 10th of the month, at Grand Rapids, Lansing, Muskegon, Holland, Jackson, Battle Creek, and Kalamazoo are the warmest on record. At Muskegon, Holland, Battle Creek and Kalamazoo, the current mean low is around 60 degrees, for all four sites that is 4 warmer than the previous record! At the other sites it is warmer than the previous record by 3 degrees. Given most of these stations have well over a 100 years of data, that is quite impressive. - Brief break in the rain Wednesday during the day As the current system lifts out and the next, stronger and larger system heads this way, shortwave ridging will bring some sunshine and warmer temperatures on Wednesday. - Next threat for showers and storm late Wed into Thu The next system is complex since we have the interaction of two very strong Pacific shortwaves that are to close in wavelength to bring us much of break between them. The trailing system causes the lead system to lift out of the Southwest CONUS Wednesday. That creates quite the early fall storm over the high plains, which will feature heavy snow over parts of western ND, SD, eastern WY and eastern MT. For us, we get the triple point feature coming through northern Lower Michigan area early Thursday. This will mean another convective event. It will be at night and any instability will be aloft. So I do not seem much of a severe storm threat. Like with the event last night, the jet feature weakens as it comes into our area, as does the 1000/850 moisture transport vectors. So, whatever is coming our way will be weakening as it does so. This will result in a rainy night Wednesday into the early morning hours of Thursday. The front will stall just south of Michigan Thursday but most of the daylight hours of Thursday may end up mostly dry for us, maybe the I-94 area could see lingering showers through the day. - Wave on front brings more rain Saturday We then have that trailing system, which is the strongest of all of them currently. That will dive into the western trough and lift out by Saturday. It will cause a wave on the front, so with the front not all that far from us in the first place, you just know we will get the rain and maybe thunderstorms from this system too. This could be a very wet system for us given it will have Gulf moisture to work with and it has a strong Pacific jet feature to help the cause. - Cooler and more fall like Saturday into next week Finally, we get a long break in the wet weather, starting Sunday and continuing into midweek. We do have the coldest air of the season coming in behind the Saturday system. While not in our forecast yet, I could see a general freeze Monday morning over northern sections if the sky can clear. It should noted stronger cold front will come through this area with more showers in the Wednesday time frame, then much colder air follows. It will surely feel like fall then!