Yesterday we had clearing skies and a good period of sunshine after a period of morning drizzle which amounted to a trace. Our high temp was 72° and the low was 56°. At 7 am this morning we have 66° which is near normal for daytime highs.
Don’t expect much sunshine for today – we expect showers and a few thunderstorms in most areas. However, our northwestern counties (nearest Ludington) can expect a chance of showers today, followed by some clearing. With the passage of a cold front, temps will cool back into the 60s for tomorrow and mid-50s for Saturday.
- Shower/isolated thunderstorm potential today and tonight A cold front will move across Southwest Lower Michigan today and move southeast of the area tonight. Instability will be rather limited during both forecast periods. Expecting showers to increase along the front today, especially with the area of precipitation lifting our direction from Illinois. We have likely pops in the forecast today 60-70 percent in some areas. Despite very high and anomalous precipitable water values (1.8 inches) we are not expecting heavy rain due to the weakening front and lack of upper forcing (the wave associated with the front is lifting into Northwest Ontario). The most widespread rain will occur this morning as the Illinois precipitation works in. Tonight the front moves just southeast of the forecast area with precipitation lingering through the night towards Jackson. - More widespread precipitation Friday into Friday night A wave of low pressure will work up the frontal boundary from the plains moving towards Detroit Friday evening. Widespread precipitation can be expected Friday into Friday night in a post frontal regime. Any severe threat that was possible on Friday looks gone now as the warm sector of the system will be off to the south and east of the GRR forecast area. Rainfall amounts during the Friday/Friday night time frame will range from light amounts in the northwest CWA towards Ludington (less than tenth of an inch potentially) to near an inch towards Jackson. - Lake effect rain showers Saturday into Saturday night The lake surface water temperature right now is around 66F or +19C. With a delta T around 13 needed for precipitation production both Saturday and Saturday night look to be opportune times for lake effect rain showers. Deeper moisture associated with the upper trough will be in place during both periods. We are expecting a bit more in the way of showers than what most of the models are showing at this point. - Dry early next week then turning wetter into mid week Any chance for lake effect rain showers will likely come to an end Saturday night although we stay cool into Sunday. The deeper moisture pulls away though on Sunday and this should keep things dry from Sunday through Tuesday. Some model disparity as we get into mid next week, but it appears there will be a low or trough moving in on Wednesday. Expecting the chance for rain once again on Wednesday as this low/trough moves in.