Warm Weekend

posted in: Michigan Weather Forecast | 5

We have another cool morning with temps in the low 50s at 4 am.  We will begin to warm up once again into the 80s beginning today though humidity levels won’t begin to rise until tomorrow to more uncomfortable levels.  The last rain we had was on the second with our next chance coming tomorrow night though it is about a 20% chance.  Our best chance will come on Monday with a 50/50 chance.

There is nothing in regards to tropical depressions going on in the Pacific or Atlantic today even with the talk of a busy hurricane season through early fall – we will have to wait and see how this all plays out during this period as it is still early.

Forecast Discussion

-- Dry and increasingly warmer through Saturday --

There really continues to be little to no change in the forecast for
much of the period. We are starting out with high pressure at the
sfc centered right over the state. This high will keep humid levels
down for the next couple of days with a dry air mass in place.
Temperatures will continue to moderate a little today, and again
tomorrow, after the much cooler weather from earlier this week.

-- Multiple storm chances Saturday night through Monday night --

The period from early Sunday morning through Monday night will be
potentially a bit unsettled with multiple chances of showers and
storms.

The first chance will arrive late Saturday night/Sunday morning.
This chance will be associated with a short wave that will be
passing through the area from west to east. A bit of a low level jet
ahead of it, and the short wave itself will provide the forcing to
generate some showers and storms. This does not look to be a real
good chance at this time due to the initial dry and stable
atmosphere, diminishing instability, and unfavorable placement of
the low level jet being aimed more north of the area.

The next better chance of rain in this period then looks to come
through late Sunday night and Monday morning. Models generate a MCS
well to our west with a strengthening low level jet. This does look
to make its way toward the area by sunrise Monday morning, but
likely in a decaying stage as the low level jet weakens.

Things become a bit more uncertain then with regard to storm
chances, as previous storms will tend to dictate where future storms
generate and move. If the decaying line does indeed come in Monday
morning, this could stabilize the atmosphere on Monday. The cold
front is expected to push through on Monday night, but would not
have a lot of instability to fuel storms here. The favored areas
would be well east of here with the low level jet, and south of here
with more unstable conditions.

-- Warm and dry much of next week --

Once the front moves through by Tuesday morning, Canadian high
pressure will build in from the north. The air under this is not
that much cooler, but the moisture would be swept out and a dry flow
of air will set up. This would help to prevent much of any
precipitation until we can get some stronger forcing back in over
the area. The latest Euro is trying to do that on Thu as a trough
digs, and lifts a sfc low toward the area. This scenario is still in
a bit of a state of flux, so we will watch the trends for later next
week.

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INDY
INDY

Wow coldest start to August since 013 thats crazzy…..How did Winter roll out that year Slim ?? Loving it another below average day I’m thinking with the returns of the heat this weekend so will the post on the blog pretty slow and cold lately on here lol…..Have a super Friday …INDY

Slim

The winter of 2013/14 Grand Rapids had 116.0″ of snow fall. January to March was cold.
Slim

INDY
INDY

Let’s do it again ….thanks Slim INDY

Jack Edwards
Jack Edwards

Indy…..call Uncle Jack

Slim

As MV stated it was another cool early August morning. The low here at my house was 53 the official low at GRR was 55. At this time with clear skies it is 58 here. The first 6 days of August have been more like the first part of September rather than August. This is the coolest start to August since 2013.
Slim