We have another cool morning with temps in the low 50s at 4 am. We will begin to warm up once again into the 80s beginning today though humidity levels won’t begin to rise until tomorrow to more uncomfortable levels. The last rain we had was on the second with our next chance coming tomorrow night though it is about a 20% chance. Our best chance will come on Monday with a 50/50 chance.
There is nothing in regards to tropical depressions going on in the Pacific or Atlantic today even with the talk of a busy hurricane season through early fall – we will have to wait and see how this all plays out during this period as it is still early.
-- Dry and increasingly warmer through Saturday -- There really continues to be little to no change in the forecast for much of the period. We are starting out with high pressure at the sfc centered right over the state. This high will keep humid levels down for the next couple of days with a dry air mass in place. Temperatures will continue to moderate a little today, and again tomorrow, after the much cooler weather from earlier this week. -- Multiple storm chances Saturday night through Monday night -- The period from early Sunday morning through Monday night will be potentially a bit unsettled with multiple chances of showers and storms. The first chance will arrive late Saturday night/Sunday morning. This chance will be associated with a short wave that will be passing through the area from west to east. A bit of a low level jet ahead of it, and the short wave itself will provide the forcing to generate some showers and storms. This does not look to be a real good chance at this time due to the initial dry and stable atmosphere, diminishing instability, and unfavorable placement of the low level jet being aimed more north of the area. The next better chance of rain in this period then looks to come through late Sunday night and Monday morning. Models generate a MCS well to our west with a strengthening low level jet. This does look to make its way toward the area by sunrise Monday morning, but likely in a decaying stage as the low level jet weakens. Things become a bit more uncertain then with regard to storm chances, as previous storms will tend to dictate where future storms generate and move. If the decaying line does indeed come in Monday morning, this could stabilize the atmosphere on Monday. The cold front is expected to push through on Monday night, but would not have a lot of instability to fuel storms here. The favored areas would be well east of here with the low level jet, and south of here with more unstable conditions. -- Warm and dry much of next week -- Once the front moves through by Tuesday morning, Canadian high pressure will build in from the north. The air under this is not that much cooler, but the moisture would be swept out and a dry flow of air will set up. This would help to prevent much of any precipitation until we can get some stronger forcing back in over the area. The latest Euro is trying to do that on Thu as a trough digs, and lifts a sfc low toward the area. This scenario is still in a bit of a state of flux, so we will watch the trends for later next week.