As you may have noticed Slim and I generally use terms such as could and maybe when giving forecasts along with the NWS thoughts who err on the side of caution with expectations of the worse scenario. This is not because we fear to give an incorrect forecast, it is because we understand the nature of weather systems trying to prove us wrong. The only thing which is sure is the sun will rise in the morning and set at night unless of course, it explodes in which case no one will be around to care.
We have a weak low-pressure system which could bring in a mix of snow and rain for tomorrow. Snow should be north of I96 with a mix or mostly rain south. A stronger system is forecast to move through which could bring several more inches of snow north of I96 in the Friday night/Saturday timeframe, however it is still too early to tell the track of this system so, as usual things could and will change as we get closer to this event.
Moving forward into next week we anticipate a pattern change to colder air and lake effect snows, of course, this is dependent on which way the wind blows and how much moisture and lift are available. At this time we think a NW flow across the lake.
Below is a document from Earth Networks which is an interesting read. It is the 2019 lightning report for the U.S. – They have determined there were over 112 million lightning strikes last year….
Earth Networks _ 2019 U.S. Lightning Report
Get ready, the possible snow storm is still on track! Stay tuned to latter forecasts!
Fox had 4.4 at 5 and then at his 630 he has 2.4 for Grand Rapids. It must be moving back and forth… I guess we won’t know for sure till Thursday!!!!
I’m saying 10 inches for GR is good bet …Get ready Winter storm watches coming INDY
If you have ever heard of Frankie MacDonald, here’s his video forecast for last weekends storm. Whoops….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aCnvL5_sshQ
You can submit him on fB also he’s a blast!! And we thought Rocky was crazzy lol.. Thanks for sharing!! INDY
That is awesome and that might be the best thing you have posted on here!
Aaron offseyer was seen at indys place getting his groceries today, he could be on to somthing!!! This weekend could be the big one of the year!!!! In others news 76 days left on snow plow contracts!!!
Love him don’t watch Zzm anymore bad on there part firing him.. Yes Bring a Winter storm wild Bill plenty more snow chances coming afrer Saturdays storm ….INDY
Looks like we still have not officially reached 1 inch of snowfall yet for January. Sitting at 0.9”. Incredible!
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=grr&product=cli&issuedby=grr
Uh oh… What happened to the supposed big weekend snowstorm two on here have been hyping for days? “Overall a warmer trend has been seen in the models over the past couple of runs. This angles the risk for an all snow event further north through the CWA. Thus Route 10 once again looks to be the area that will see the highest snow amounts from this potential storm. Also…this system will likely have a dry slot that is shown to move in early on Saturday…which could also impact the precipitation types. So for now snow arrives Friday night…then as… Read more »
I hear warmer temps, lots of rain, and limited snow. Sounds a lot like last weekend! LOL
Oh darn, were going to have more mix.. Bring on the rain !
Another possible mix this weekend.. Oh, not another let down.. Lol !
Hey mokiee don’t forget the below normal temps behind the storm thats important to …lol..INDY!!
NWS isn’t impressed! So much for the hype! “Lake effect/enhanced snow will likely return to the area Saturday night into Sunday so accumulations and limited impacts on the backside of the storm are possible. Overall through it is looking like the rapid departure of this storm will allow for the atmosphere to dry out quickly.”
The latest CFSv2 is now showing after a mild and wetter week this week, a colder and dryer period for the 3 weeks after. And that should be how today’s CPC long range guess should look when it comes out later today.
Slim
Well for the hundreds of posts and wishcasts for snow and Winter weather, the only thing set in stone is what has happened. So far that would be an incredibly mild first half of Winter with record breaking high temps, and snowfall that is only half of what the average is. And of the snow we have received, all of it has melted within a day or 2 of falling and left us with bare ground. Maybe we get a month or so of Winter, maybe we don’t, but you have to love what we’ve had (or haven’t had) for… Read more »
Wow, now those are the facts!
Now those are the facts!
Well we can use the term “historic” so far for this winter. Maybe not in the terms that some had wished for but none the less near historic. While some colder temperatures and yes there is a chance of some snow in the next couple of weeks. So far this winter is among the mildest and on tract for one of the least snowy winters of recorded history. Of course we still have the 2nd half to go so a lot can still change yet. One winter that I have been watching is the winter of 1931/32 in that winter… Read more »
In reading the information on lightening several things kind of surprised me. One was the high number of strikes over lake Michigan. And in general the number in the state of Michigan. My sister lived in Fort Myers Florida (Fort Myers is in Lee county one of the top thunders storm counties in the US) before she passed and I a lot of time down there when she was alive and can tell you 1st hand that they get a lot of thunderstorm with much more intense lightning then we generally do. There there are a lot of morning and… Read more »
Yeah that does seem like a lot over Lake Michigan, especially since we don’t seem to get much in our area.
That’s an incredibly informative read on lightening MV! I wasn’t aware that they has such an extensive network keeping track of every strike down to individual counties around the country. Definitely some surprises in certain areas.
Let the snow and cold train begin!
https://johndee.com/forecasts/forecast-graphic/
That’s A BIG DADDY! INDY
Great Scotty seeing highs only in the single digits around the last week of January get your Winter on…Winter storm watches coming stay tuned!! INDY..
Keep up the great work and keep those snow facts rolling!
Nice track!
https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2020-01-12-mid-january-snow-ice-rain-storm-west-midwest-northeast
We are in for a wet and snowy week! Let’s hope the late week storm continues to develop and heads right towards GGR area!
Gfs 5 day snow map! Trending the right direction!
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays2.php?STATIONID=GRR
Bill says divide those maps by two or three, so certainly not a big storm at this point. Maybe GR will finally get over 1″ of snow for January!
That’s A BIG DADDY! INDY
Don’t worry, Barry said it is not even a storm unless you get more that 6 inches of snow with blizzard conditions!
And of course you act like it’s the “Storm of the Century” every time we get 2 or 3 inches. You obviously have not lived around here very long or you’d know what a real snowstorm is like.
Yes the facts are in! It will not be a dry week! Bring on the snow!
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
Next 5 days! Incredible!
LOL That says thru Sunday. Nice try!
Through 13 days of January, GR is an incredible +9.3 degrees above average with more 40’s today! GR has received less than an inch of snow the entire month so far!
Through the season, GR is now 17″ below average snowfall. I love short winters!
What? It will not be a dry week? Who knew?
Pretty dry week overall until the weekend. Exactly what I said a few days ago. Try to keep up!
POLOR VORTEX!! Is coming it’s going to get cold and snowy around West Michigan prepare now …. Winter storm watches coming. BIG DADDY coming shuuuu!! Stay tuned …INDY..
Bring it on! After all it is winter !
No signs of any major cold air yet. Might get a week or two of slightly below average with high temps in the 20’s.
update… I did find a long range forecast that does predict at least a 80% chance of that happening about 4 billion years out. (Not sure what that comes to in hours, as I haven’t had any coffee yet).
3.504e+13 hours or somewhere around 35 trillion
Holy smokes. You obviously HAVE had your coffee already.
on my third cup
so… Michael your saying that there is a possibility that the sun may explode in the next 24-72 hours? I couldn’t find that in any of the forecast models. Nevertheless, I’m stickin with you on this one.
not seeing it in the solar forecasts or in our lifetime 🙂
Get ready for real winter to set in! The transition process starts the end of this week! First a snow storm is brewing for Friday night and Saturday! So far it looks like mainly snow from I96 North, then a major cold front comes through the end of the weekend, then the cpc shows below normal temps dominating for at least a full month maybe longer! Get ready for a winter Rock n Roll party! Bring it!