Yesterday we saw 46° in Otsego with some sun and windy conditions. Today will be colder with temperatures in the low 30s and a NNW wind of 16 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Scattered lake effect snow showers are possible along the lakeshore counties. Temperatures tonight will drop to around 20°.
NWS Forecast
Weather History
1976: A tornado outbreak strikes from Michigan to Mississippi. In Michigan, two people are killed, one each in Oakland and Macomb Counties.
On March 20, 2012, highs of 82, 84, and 83 were recorded in Detroit, Flint, and Saginaw respectively. Each temperature tied for the warmest March temperatures ever recorded at the time. However, all records would be broken in the coming days. Ultimately March 20, 2012, would be the third warmest March day ever recorded for Detroit and the second warmest for Flint and Saginaw.
Also on March 20, 1976, an F4 tornado moved through West Bloomfield in Oakland County at 7:15 PM. This tornado was responsible for 1 death, 55 injuries, and over $5 million in damage. This is both the strongest and costliest tornado to ever hit Oakland County.
Also on March 20, many snowstorms have hit Southeast Michigan with greater than 6 inches over a large area of the region including in 1967, 1983, 1989, 1992, and 1996. In 1983, the Flint snowfall of 9.6 inches was the tenth heaviest snowstorm in its history.
1948: The city of Juneau received 31 inches of snow in 24 hours, a record for the Alaska Capitol. (20th – 21st)
Also, on this day, an F3 tornado tracked through Tinker Air Force Base in Oklahoma City, OK just before 10 pm destroying 54 aircraft, including 17 transport planes valued at $500,000 apiece. The total damage amounted to more than $10 million, a record for the state that stood until the massive tornado outbreak of 5/3/1999. Major Ernest W. Fawbush and Captain Robert C. Miller were ordered to see if operationally forecasting tornadoes was possible. The tornado prompted the first attempt at tornado forecasting. Forecasters at Tinker believed conditions were again favorable for tornadoes and issued the first recorded tornado forecast. Five days later, on 3/25 at 6 pm, a forecasted tornado occurred, crossing the prepared base, and the damage was minimized. The successful, albeit somewhat lucky forecast, paved the way for tornado forecasts to be issued by the U.S. Weather Bureau after a lengthy ban. Click HERE for more information from NOAA.
1986: Great Britain recorded its highest wind gust ever as the summit of Scotland’s Cairngorm Mountains, at 4,085 feet, had a gust of 172 mph.
1998: A deadly tornado outbreak occurred over portions of the southeastern United States on this day. Particularly hard hit were rural areas outside of Gainesville, Georgia, where at least 12 people were killed during the early morning hours. The entire outbreak killed 14 people and produced 12 tornadoes across three states. The town of Stoneville, North Carolina, was hard hit by the storms.
Forecast Discussion
- Much cooler today with a few snow showers A cold front is currently making its way through the forecast area, with it located just south of a line from Holland to GR to Lansing as of 07z/3 am EDT this morning. Not much is going on along and ahead of the front. Some pockets of very light snow are breaking out behind the front as some moisture around 5k ft is dropping south. In addition, there is a pretty strong short wave that is organizing to our NW and moving toward the area. We do not expect snow showers to get out of hand over our area today for a couple of reasons. The first is that the short wave moving toward the area is expected to track just north of the area through 18z today. This will place the best lift with it, and the cyclonic flow aloft just to our north also. The second factor that will limit snow intensity and accumulations will be the drier air coming in at the lower levels, and the late March sun angle disrupting bands. Still, with 850 mb temps dropping to around -15C, some lake effect snow showers can be expected. We are expecting less than an inch for most locations, with maybe an inch or so on grassy areas for favored areas along the lakeshore. The snow showers will tend diminish later this afternoon, and end this evening fairly quickly. The aforementioned short wave will be moving away from the area quickly, and the upper and sfc flow becomes ridgy pretty quick by tonight. This ridging holds through Thursday, so a dry day can be expected with slightly milder temperatures before the Friday system. - High Confidence for Snow Thursday Night/Friday Models are fairly similar concerning the evolution of a sfc wave along the baroclinic zone/arctic drape across the Plains/Midwest on Thursday into Friday, leading to high confidence in the chances for measurable snow across just about all of the forecast area. One important difference is the operational GFS axis of heavies QPF being being on the northern edge of the guidance envelope. Current WPC QPF follows this pattern, with greatest amounts from MKG to MOP, but we will have to account for the possibility that this trends south towards the ECMWF and GEM with time. Mid-level F-gen should be strong enough to result in mesoscale banding with higher snow rates potentially persisting as the bands pivot over the forecast area for several hours. Current storm total snow amounts of 6 to 9 inches across the central/northern forecast area is indicative of this. Surface temps are cold enough Thursday night for snow to accumulate on roads and impact travel for the Friday morning commute. Temperatures become more marginal Friday and additional accums on roads could be limited. Mixed precip is possible across the southern zones if the further north track of the low forecast by the GFS verifies, otherwise this could be a mostly or all snow event even across the south. - Medium Confidence on Storminess early Next Week Western CONUS troughing amplifies and goes negative tilt early next week and a surface cyclone will evolve over the Plains. Ensemble spread has decreased since yesterday, but the ECMWF is more amplified and slower than the GFS, which is preferred here due to the ECMWF apparent bias in overdeepening sfc lows. The low tracks west of Lower Michigan through MN/WI and into Canada with the warm conveyor belt rains passing through late Monday into Tuesday.
What? Temps in the teens this morning! I thought winter was over?
What a day! Fresh snow on the ground, cold temps and a brisk wind! Very refreshing! Keep it rocking!
I might go snowshoeing on Saturday! WOW, just wow, WOW! Temps in the 20’s and 30’s all weekend baby! I love it!
29 out in my hood with a brisk wind I will say that’s pretty cold for the end of March!! Feeling like Winter out at thee yardofbricks…INDY
What? You mean winter weather is not done yet! Who would have thought? Certainly not the warm weather fanatics! They simply whine and complain about cold and snow! Pathetic!
Awe Hell, I’ll give the cold weather crazies their one day of snow on Friday, it’s gonna all melt by Sunday anyway, then it’s back around 50 on Monday and Tuesday!
Some pretty heavy bands of snow have been moving through. Not sticking much, but visibilities are randomly reduced
It looks awesome! Wait till Friday! Winter is far from over!
Hello Winter!
https://twitter.com/NWSGrandRapids/status/1770488016014028939/photo/1
More snow on the way? How is that possible? I thought winter was declared dead a long time ago. Incredible!
Yeah, hype up that 0.2″ of snow LOL
“More snow on the way”
But you’re right we might as well include the stuff fallen today as well! I love it!
It’s already melted
You know it Kyle and no matter how cold it is how much snow is forecast and how much snow we see a couple of the winter deniers always downplay the winter weather! For example today we will see afternoon highs in the upper 20’s and low 30’s and we will be in a WWA by the end of the week and they will say no winter weather here and winter has been over for months! Total spin and delusion!
Bring on the snow! They declared winter weather was over months ago! How wrong can they be? Rock n roll baby!
After this weekend, the forecast looks pleasant as we ride into summer. Best time of the year!
Total delusion! Too funny!
As you may know, I am a history nerd. I just love it. The 1948 OKC event listed above is really cool.
Here is a look back at metrological winter using GR’s stats:
Days above average: 76
Days below average: 15
Days right at average: 2
Of the 76 days above average, 31 were +10 to +32 (on Feb 28th).
Of the 15 days below average, nine were those consecutive days in January (14th-22nd) when we had truly cold, winter-like conditions. This season could be remembered as the nine-day winter.
If only every winter could be a nine day winter, after this week, maybe a 12 day winter, LOL! Starting Monday, temps move right back to normal temps for this time of year, which is great for the farmers and our own flowering plants.
Woah! Nothing but blowtorch!
It doesn’t get much better than this for March 20th! Fresh snow on the ground, temps below freezing, a pending snowstorm and a string of below normal temp days! Forget about golf and go for a nice winter hike! Rock n roll will never die!!!
The overnight low here in MBY was 30 and that is the current temperature, there was .2” of snowfall and there is a trace of snow on the ground at the current time.
Slim
As has been the case this year yesterday was yet another windy day with the highest wind gust of 46 MPH out of the W. The H/L was 44/30 there was no rain/snowfall the sun was out 40% of the possible time. For today the average H/L is 46/28 the record high of 83 was set in 2012 and the record low of 3 was set in 1965. The most rainfall of 1.22” fell in 2011 the most snowfall of 8.4” was in 1940 the most on the ground was 9” in 1965. Last year the H/L was 49/27.
Slim