We have 16° at 7 am this morning for a cold start to the day. Our cold pattern will persist through Saturday. We have winter weather advisories to our west so I imagine they will be put up over Michigan later today as a snow system prepares to move in for late tonight and tomorrow. More information will be provided as the day progresses.
NWS Forecast
Weather History
1983: Spring starts on a snowy note with record daily snowfall of 6 to 8 inches from Muskegon to Lansing.
2008: A record 6.6 inches of snow fell at Grand Rapids on the first day of Spring. Muskegon had a record 7 inches, while 8 to 14 inches of snow fell south of a line from Holland to Jackson.
On March 21, 2012, high temperatures of 84, 86, and 87 were recorded in Detroit, Flint, and Saginaw respectively. All of these temperatures broke the all-time March records for warmth at each location. Saginaw was particularly impressive, shattering its previous all-time March record of 83 by four degrees. Ultimately, one more record-breaking day in Detroit would relegate this day to be its second warmest March day ever recorded. The records for Flint and Saginaw, however, still stand.
Also on March 21, 2008, a winter storm hit the greater Metro Detroit region. While most of the metro area received 3 to 7 inches of snow, a band of 8 to 10 inches fell from Dexter and the Irish Hills across Saline, Tecumseh, Dundee and into Temperance.
Also on March 21, 1913, powerful winds swept across Southeast Michigan as a strong cold front moved across the state. The wind storm was one of the strongest in the local climate record and caused widespread damage, countless injuries, and several fatalities.
According to the historical record, east winds gusting to around 30 mph during the pre-dawn hours turned to the south, allowing the temperature in Detroit to rise to 57 degrees by 9 a.m. With the passage of the cold front, temperatures fell precipitously through the day, reaching a low of 23 degrees by midnight. As the cold air first began spilling into the area, winds initially turned southwesterly and began gusting to over 60 mph between 9 a.m. and 10 a.m. The average wind speed during the following hour increased to 71 mph with a peak gust of nearly 80 mph. Shortly thereafter, at 11:15 a.m., a peak wind gust of 86 mph was recorded. Altogether, winds gusted in excess of 70 mph for approximately 3 hours while gusts in excess of 60 mph continued for around 6 hours.
Damage was significant, widespread, and conservatively estimated at $500,000 (equivalent to $11,500,000 in 2012 dollars after adjusting for inflation). Buildings were razed, roofs and chimneys were destroyed, and trees were broken and uprooted. In addition, vehicles were overturned and there were accounts of a delivery wagon having been blown through the window of a restaurant on Lafayette Boulevard. In addition to several fatalities, one of which included a Grand Trunk watchman who was blown in front of a moving train, injuries to pedestrians were numerous and included arm, leg, and skull fractures. The strong winds also caused the Detroit River level to fall so low that the water intakes for manufacturing plants were cut off, resulting in their closure. On the Canadian side, thirteen freight train cars were derailed by large waves.
1801: The Jefferson Flood hit the Connecticut Valley. The flooding was the greatest since 1692. The Federalists named the flood for the new President, who they blamed for the disaster.
1876: More than 40 inches of snow stopped traffic in Montreal, Quebec, Canada. Trains were delayed, and mail carriers resorted to snowshoes.
1932: A tornado swarm occurred in the Deep South. Between late afternoon and early the next morning, severe thunderstorms spawned 31 tornadoes in Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, and Tennessee. The tornadoes killed 334 persons and injured 1784 others. Northern Alabama was the hardest hit. Tornadoes in Alabama killed 286 persons and caused five million dollars damage.
1951: Antarctica is the windiest place in the world. Port Martin averaged 40 mph winds throughout the year. On this day, the winds averaged 108 mph.
Forecast Discussion
- Cold Thursday Clear skies with the dry air mass over the region has allow for temperatures to drop to around 10 degrees below normal this morning. This cold air will continue to remain over the area with Max temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below normal for Thursday. As the upper level ridge lifts into the area tonight into tomorrow it will bring weak Warm air advection. However, temperatures will remain below normal into Friday. - Snow Expected Thursday Night through Friday Night Impactful snow could fall Friday which could disrupt travel conditions throughout the day, including potentially the morning commute. The cold air that will be entrenched over Michigan through Friday will set the stage for a late season winter storm late Thursday night through Friday. An upper level short wave with only some baroclinicity will move through the region on Friday. The biggest question is the position and propagation of the low. The models continue to shift the orientation of the jet as it moves through area which suggests a slight southerly shift in the highest snowfall amounts. Isentropic lift will be the primary driver of snowfall rates and amounts. Some low level factors will include the southeasterly flow out ahead of the incoming system. That flow will bring an influx of drier air which along with the southerly shift of the band will allow bring a reduction in moisture influx. However this could also allow for moist flow off of Saginaw Bay to bring slightly more snow to the Isabella and Clare counties due to lake enhancement. As it stands, the primary snow generation and the strength of the snow rates will be from isentropic lift with potential frontogenetic forcing along the boundary. Any Lake enhancement will only intensify any passing bands. The highest snowfall currently amounts is a region of 6 to 8 inches north of the I 96 corridor and south of the US 10 corridor which remains possible. Due to the variability of the snow bands and that at this time the snow amounts are below warning criteria, we will be holding off on any headlines. - Cold Weekend then Warming up with Showers Early Next Week High pressure will be tracking southeastward through Ontario Saturday night. It`s looking like this will be another very cold night for the region. With mainly clear skies, light easterly flow and some snow on the ground, many areas will likely see temperatures falling under 20 degrees once again and I would not rule out some single digits in normally colder areas like the upper Muskegon basin. It is concerning to see the ensemble and deterministic temperatures trending downward though. If clouds spread in sooner than expected, that may act to prevent the temperatures from dropping so low. Warm air advection will start up here in MI on Sunday as a low pressure deepens over the Central Plains. This could lead to thickening clouds and perhaps a few snow showers. Surface winds veer to the south on Monday as a cold front approaches from the west. A low level thermal ridge arrives later in the day. Ensemble max temperatures for Monday have been trending up for the region. High confidence now exists to see values reaching into the upper 40`s north and topping the 50 degree mark for central and southern zones. Showers will be on the increase as the cold front moves in later Monday and into Monday night. Deeper lift is noted with steadily falling mid level heights along with Gulf moisture streaming in. PWAT values will make a run at an inch. Some instability will try to push in from the southwest Monday night but models are showing it fading as it does. Thus the confidence for any thunderstorms is low at this time. The actual front does not push through until Tuesday. There`s still considerable spread in the ensemble rainfall amounts but mean values are up around half inch or so, which is similar to the deterministic amounts. Thus we will have high POPs then.
Let it snow, let it snow, let it SNOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The HRRR simply rocks! Bring it!
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024032118&fh=120
Get ready to rock people! Nothing better than late March SNOWSTORM! Bring it on and forget golf and get out your snowshoes and snowblowers! I absolutely love it!!!
GREAT SCOTT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY!! INDY
What? We are still seeing winter weather! Incredible!
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT
EDT FRIDAY NIGHT…
* WHAT…Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 7 inches.
Highest snowfall totals in that range will occur near and north
of Interstate 96.
* WHERE…Portions of central, south central, southwest and west
central Michigan.
* WHEN…From 3 AM Friday to midnight EDT Friday night.
If todays updated CFSv2 plays out there could be some rather cold weather in the next several weeks.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/
Slim
Of course! Happens every year!
Nahhh go with the CPC, it’s been completely accurate all winter!! The new long ranges came out today!
Fun fact: 12 years ago today it was a high of 87 in Grand Rapids. A historic stretch of warmth I will never forget.
Much different this year with snow on the way.
Get ready for lots of 50’s next week as we start our ascent into summer!
Total delusion!
Todays updated CFSv2 hints at some well below average temperatures for the next several weeks. So might have to put a hold on that ascent into summer.
Slim
All the ski resorts are closed. There’s no ice anywhere. Record temps. We haven’t had a hint of winter in over a month… and one small snowfall and the winter nuts go crazy. Some things never change LOL
I am considering heading up to Nubs Nob this weekend! Cold temps and great ski conditions up there still! This is despite some people telling us winter is over and all of the skiing is done! Wow, just wow, WOW!!!!
SNOWSTORM alert>>>>>>>>get ready for a WWA, bad roads and accumulating snow! What? You mean winter weather is not over! How is that possible?
I thought winter was dead? Who knew?
Happens every year! Some people hate winter so much they refuse to admit that winter weather is never over in West MI till May! Who would have thought? This year was worse than normal because they stated saying winter was over in December and said we may not even see 30 inches of snow! How wrong can they be?
The overnight low here in MBY was a cold 15 that is the coldest low since February 24th at the current time is 18 with mostly cloudy skies.
Slim
This is kinda wild – this morning is only the 12th time since Dec 1st that the low was sub-20.
Crazy! And of course last night kicked off goat kidding season for me. 3 goat babies on the ground on one of the coldest nights of all winter, just makes sense for this weird year.
The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 37/21 there was 0.3” of snowfall. The highest wind gust was 37 MPH out of the NW. There was 29% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 47/8 the record high for the date and the month of March is 87 the record low of 9 was set in 1965. The most rainfall is 0.79” in 2007 the most snowfall is 6.8” in 2008 the most on the ground is 9” in 1965. Last year the H/L was 53/32.
Slim