We have a cold 17° this morning at 6 am. Yesterday’s high was 39°,
Today we should see a 10° improvement in temps. Temperatures will warm considerably over the weekend, and remain warm next week. Gusty winds and dry conditions on Saturday will renew concerns for brush fires to get out of control. Burning yard debris is discouraged. We have had a few brush fires around the area which got out of control even when attended by a well-meaning citizen.
This is the updated drought graphic that came out yesterday which shows moderate drought conditions spreading across southern Michigan. Long-range CPC outlooks aren’t showing much improvement over the next couple of weeks.
The chart above shows the impacts of drought conditions by their color code on the map.
There are conflicting reports between the CPC and NOAA precipitation forecasts for next week. NWS models are still struggling with frontal boundaries for that period. Hopefully, rainfall predictions for next week hold true which shows we would see around an inch which would give us a good start for our monthly totals for April.
--Dry with a warming trend this weekend-- Surface and upper ridging will provide full sun today, but it will still be on the chilly side as MI is still on the wrn edge of H8 thermal trough over the eastern conus. Winds today will be much lighter than Thursday so blustery conditions not expected. Mid level warm advection sends a batch of clouds through the region tonight and early Saturday. Southerly winds crank up late tonight and Saturday in tight pressure gradient/return flow on back side of the departing sfc ridge. Warm-up ensues and high temps on Saturday make a run at 60 inland from Lake Michigan. Deep mixing in wake of departing mid clouds leads to gusty southwest winds of 30-35 mph. Easter Sunday turns out to be a pleasant/warm day with highs near 70 and light winds although probably a bit less sunshine as high level cloudiness impacts the region. --Elevated fire danger, particularly Saturday-- Very dry air mass in place with sfc dew pts of 5-15 and PWATs only around 0.1 leads to fire weather concerns for the holiday weekend. We are still very much in pre green-up stage and dead vegetation allows fires to spread out of control quickly/easily. Afternoon relative humidities falling to 15-20 percent today and 30-35 percent Saturday and Sunday. Of particular concern is Saturday when southwest winds will be strong/gusty. --Potential for rain next week-- Confidence is still quite low regarding daily shower and tstm potential (and frequency) for Monday through Thursday. However a pattern conducive to locally heavy rainfall looks to eventually set up nearby with a quasi stationary frontal boundary in the vicinity and an upper low approaching from the west. Deterministic and ensemble guidance still struggling with the specific details and timing, and a Hudson Bay sfc high mid week could help push the sfc boundary south of state and initiate the familiar dry easterly flow.