Today may bring a little bit of excitement with storms possible this afternoon for West Michigan. The SPC has us at an enhanced risk for severe storms.
Severe storms are possible across all of West Michigan today with the biggest threat from noon to 8 PM. Damaging winds are the greatest threat with large hail, isolated tornadoes, and localized flooding also possible. Stay weather-aware today.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop by late morning and continue into the afternoon before ending during the evening. Strong wind gusts greater than 60 mph will be possible with some of these storms along with torrential rain. A tornado is also possible. Precipitation will end during the evening.
Severe thunderstorm watches are currently posted for west and central Wisconsin at 6 am with the storms moving to the southeast towards our area. I will keep the radar up through the day so you can keep updated on the storm track. I will forgo the weather history today due to the potential of severe weather.
Grand Rapids Forecast
7 26 grrForecast Discussion
- Severe Threat Today -
Focus of the short term is clearly on the threat of severe storms
today. A warm front is located of to our south at 07Z, stretching
from Southern Iowa into Central Indiana. The warm front surges
northward this morning working into Southwest Lower Michigan by
midday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to both 1) work our
direction from the upper midwest and 2) develop overhead in the
midday hours. The Minnesota convection is racing to the southeast
at 40 knots, which schedules it to reach western Lake Michigan by
13Z. As the warm front surges northward, so will instability. We
should have at least 1000-2000 j/kg or CAPE in place by mid
morning. So, the arriving convection will likely maintain itself.
New convection will develop in the 15Z to 16Z time frame over the
lake and begin to push into Western Lower Michigan around midday.
A severe threat looks to exist from the midday hours right through
the afternoon and potentially into the evening. Worst case
scenario would be if we can keep convection at bay through early
afternoon. If the arriving Minnesota storms erode or we do not
produce much convection on the northward moving warm front,
instability will be able to be maximized.
As it stands now, we are looking at the potential of MUCAPE values
reaching 2000-3000 j/kg. Wind speeds are solid for a mid summer
severe event with 40 knots of wind in the mid levels and 30-40
knots of wind at LLJ level around 850mb. Directional shear is
noted with surface winds out of the SSW veering to W in the mid
levels. Deep layer shear is on the order of 35 to 40 knots so
discrete storms will have the ability to acquire rotation.
Looking at convection allowing models though, it appears bowing
segments will be the likely storm mode today. Therefore, damaging
wind will be the main hazard. DCAPE values even at this hour
upstream are around 1400 j/kg in northeast IL. Winds in excess of
50 knots are possible as storms sweep eastward across the area. We
cannot rule out supercells both initially and later on near the
south edge of complexes moving through. So, isolated tornadoes are
possible. The best chance for both damaging wind gusts and
tornadoes will be in our southeast CWA from Battle Creek to
Lansing and Jackson. Areas to the south and east of a line from
Grand Haven to Mt. Pleasant are most at risk today.
Storm evolution and morphology are the question marks today, but
again it looks like things could be getting active already over
Lake Michigan in the 15Z to 16Z time frame. Main time frame of
concern will be 16Z through 23Z.
Otherwise, no significant concerns for tonight and Thursday as
weak high pressure builds into the area.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 333 AM EDT Wed Jul 26 2023
The long term will begin on the hot side with highs around 90 and
dewpoints in the lower 70s. However, a cold front will drop south
Friday kicking off another round of showers/storms. This front will
be aided by an upper short wave moving across central Lower. Given
that the front will move across the cwa during peak heating, storms
that develop may have a little extra strength. Models show MLCAPE
and DCAPE around 1500 j/kg. That would point toward another wind
threat. Precipitable water values are progd near 2 inches again, so
localized flooding may be a concern too. The rain should end Friday
night, leading to dry weather through the weekend.
Behind the front, temperatures will fall to around 80 and dewpoints
back into the 50s. High pressure at the surface and dry northwest
flow aloft behind the front into next week will result in
partly/mostly sunny skies through Monday. The GFS shows a signal for
the upper ridge to sink south and flatten a bit, allowing minor
waves to ride over the top. We have retained chc PoPs for this.
Great day of tracking storms lots of chatter out there with storm trackers great pics coming in from souheast of the state as they got nailed and Muskegon had flooding rains all of west Michigan received some good rains I have to cut my grass again growing fast … The NWS was on it for the enhanced area . We have another chance Friday as we are already in the slight risk area stay tuned INDY ..
We have had quite the soaking here today, but no severe weather. Decent storms to the SE of our area, but I think most of us missed out
I don’t believe there was a single report of severe weather in the GRR NWS coverage area at least as of yet. A complete and total Enhanced Risk severe weather flop in our area. Good news is most in West MI have power. Would be very uncomfortable with the hot couple days ahead to have no power. There is a severe threat Friday but given how this one panned out I’m not looking into any details on that yet.
A huge bust for us too.
At this time the rain is over here in MBY. For this part of Kent county there was just 0.13″ of rain fall. No severe weather and just a few rumbles of thunder. So for my area not much happened. It is now 75 with a Dew Point of 72 here in MBY.
Slim
About the same here, just over a tenth of an inch. Once again better than zero, but not a whole lot. That line that came over us split in two, went North and South of us. Just enough rain to keep some of the dust down.
We had a torrential downpour for about 30 minutes!!
The Action Day is in effect for the following Michigan counties…
Allegan, Kent, Muskegon, Ottawa, and Van Buren
It is recommended that active children and adults, and persons
with respiratory diseases such as asthma, limit prolonged
outdoor exertion.
1.5 inches of rain so far!! Wow, just wow, WOW!
That couplet near Leslie in Ingham county sure got tight for a couple scans.
Idk what the warning for Ottawa and Allegan was for wasn’t impressive and didn’t look warning worthy.
Tornado warning for Ingham County.
Also that storm in Lenawee County… there was a brief rotation and several mPING reports came out of that area for wind damage
The National Weather Service in Grand Rapids has issued a * Tornado Warning for… Southeastern Ingham County in south central Michigan… * Until 300 PM EDT. * At 237 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Leslie, or 9 miles southeast of Mason, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD…Tornado. SOURCE…Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near… Stockbridge around 255 PM EDT. Other… Read more »
The National Weather Service in Grand Rapids has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for… Northern Allegan County in southwestern Michigan… Ottawa County in southwestern Michigan… * Until 315 PM EDT. * At 231 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 12 miles southwest of Grand Haven to 6 miles west of Saugatuck, moving east at 60 mph. HAZARD…60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE…Radar indicated. IMPACT…Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include… Holland… Grand Haven… Hudsonville… Zeeland… Coopersville… Saugatuck… Beechwood… Jenison… Holland SP… Allendale… Dorr… Conklin… Hamilton… Wright… Douglas… Port Sheldon… Lamont… Grand… Read more »
As usual…that’s about it. Fairly certain we’ll survive these “sprinkles” .
Sorry I’m going to miss out. We’re at Lake of the Ozarks until Monday. Hot and humid here. Here’s the forecast:
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=190&y=90&site=sgf&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=190&map_y=90
Incredible weather! I’d soak up every minute of that. Stay cool and enjoy your trip!
That weather looks absolutely horrible! Way too hot!
Perfect – we are getting pummeled with rain but nothing severe! Rain = good! Severe = damage and power outages = BAD! Just the facts!
So far anyways nothing significant. We shall see later today. I’ve said it many times before I’ve never been impressed with Enhanced Risk setups here the usually never seem to materialize. Maybe that will be different later we shall see. Otherwise a nice rain for us at least.
A bit of rotation near Wayland in Allegan County it seems
Yikes.. looked up that direction big lightning bolt about 5 mins ago.
Standard “broken line” for GR. Maybe we’ll see some rain for the lawn.
yes the big split is happening as we speak!
mPING reports from Waukegan show hail and 3″ limbs and power poles down.
Batten down the hatches, storms are coming over the lake – at the vary least I suppose rain might fall in Allegan County where it is very dry. Watch is in place until 4 pm.
Boy I hope it rains in this county!!! I was picking up stuff last night… thing I will go see what else needs to be moved. Thanks Michael.
The National Weather Service in Grand Rapids has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for…
Southern Mason County in west central Michigan…
Northern Oceana County in west central Michigan…
* Until 1045 AM EDT.
* At 955 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 12 miles southwest of Ludington SP to 10 miles west
of Mears SP to 20 miles west of Silver Lake SP, moving northeast
at 45 mph.
HAZARD…60 mph wind gusts.
SOURCE…Radar indicated.
IMPACT…Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 550 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS MIC005-015-021-023-025-027-035-037-045-057-059-065-067-073-075- 077-081-085-105-107-117-121-123-127-133-139-149-159-262000- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0550.230726T1405Z-230726T2000Z/ MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGAN BARRY BERRIEN BRANCH CALHOUN CASS CLARE CLINTON EATON GRATIOT HILLSDALE INGHAM IONIA ISABELLA JACKSON KALAMAZOO KENT LAKE MASON MECOSTA MONTCALM MUSKEGON NEWAYGO OCEANA OSCEOLA OTTAWA ST. JOSEPH VAN BUREN
Watch coming shortly for West MI
I wondered. It seems so calm right now. I know the calm before the storm. Lol
There it is until 4pm!
Yep, also a warning for Ludington and Pentwater… seems like the storms are arriving a bit earlier than expected?
Computer models don’t have a good handle on it at all. The better stuff is supposed to be later but this could throw a wrench in things possibly which wouldn’t surprise me because that happens a ton here.
Bring on the rain but forget the storms!
“Scattered thunderstorms are expected through early afternoon across the southeastern WI/northeastern IL region, increasing in coverage and intensity as they impinge on a moistening and destabilizing air mass further east. This may evolve from very recently developed activity over northwestern IL. Initial discrete to clustered activity may evolve into an organized squall line with time. A corridor of damaging wind, with embedded severe gusts, appears possible in and near the “enhanced” area, along with the potential for a few line-embedded tornadoes, and occasional large hail.”
Those storms in Southern WI and Northern IL are producing wind gusts to 70mph. One would think they should hold together or even intensify as they move east. We shall see.
It is relatively sunny here- just some high cirrus clouds. Dew point is only 64, but should be 70-74 by the afternoon. Temps will also warm into the low 80s by noon. So seems like conditions will be much better by the time storms arrive. We shall see, but with the storms arriving at peak sun/heating, it’ll be interesting for sure.
I feel like a lot of “bust” events occur when the storms develop to our west around 2-4, and then move into Michigan later in the evening when conditions are less optimal. Won’t be the case this time (unless they arrive too early)
The official H/L yesterday was 8/62 there was no rain fall and the sun was out 74% of the time. The highest wind gust was 27 MPH out of the west. For today the average H/L is 83/63 the record high of 100 was set way back in 1894. The record low of 46 was set in 1946. Last year the H/L was 79/57.
Slim
The is a enhanced chance of severe storms today. We shall see I was in an area of enhanced storms last Thursday and the worst of the storms were east of Flint. So, we shall see how today plays out. At the current time I have a temperature of 70 with a dew point of 65. Remember to keep a eye out for possible severe weather today. There is an area of storms to the NW of us on the other side of the lake that should stay to the north of GR.
Slim