Yesterday was cloudy with a trace of snow. The low was 23° and the high was 27°. We have another cloudy, gloomy day is in store with temperatures remaining below freezing for SW Michigan. All eyes are now on the development of a storm system coming at the end of the week. I ran GFS models last night and again this morning, if the storm path holds true we could be in for a nasty winter storm for the holiday.
Keep in mind this is still four days away, we should have a clearer picture of what is going to happen by the time we get to Wednesday. This could be a major blizzard if it all holds true it could make for hazardous if not impossible travel conditions.
This map, updated to include additional reports, shows the total measured snowfall that fell from Thursday, December 15 to the morning of Sunday, December 18. Although some lake effect snow started falling Thursday evening, the bulk of accumulations occurred Friday evening and Saturday.
7-Day Forecast 42.96°N 85.67°W 12 19
Forecast Discussion
-- Minor snow accumulations north of Muskegon overnight -- Following up the previous discussion, we still see signals for low level convergence and lake enhanced snow north of Muskegon. However, we did back off on accumulations. Now we expect perhaps an inch primarily in Oceana, Mason, and Lake Counties. Most of this would fall between 1 AM and 7 AM Tuesday. -- Growing concern for blizzard-like conditions Friday -- We continue to see impressive run-to-run model continuity in the depiction of the upcoming storm. As noted previously, Thursday`s precipitation type is a bit in question ahead of the main system. Given cold surface temperatures and strong lower tropospheric theta- e advection, freezing rain looks quite possible and even a bit more plausible than snow during the day and into evening. Ground temperatures might be able to warm above freezing by the afternoon commute but this is far from certain. Thus, a coating of glaze for the Thursday evening commute is a distinct possibility. Then, starting Thursday night, things get really interesting. In both the 18/12Z and 19/00Z runs of the ECE, a sizable majority of members show explosive cyclogenesis of a surface low originating from the mid-MS valley region and moving northeast into Lower MI or possibly eastern WI. Forecast deepening of the surface low Thursday night is unbelievable. The entire ensemble mean drops about 8 mb between 00Z and 06Z Friday and both the ECMWF and Canadian deterministic runs show a drop of 20 mb between 00Z and 12Z as the low center pulls into Lower MI. We continue to see evidence of a large TROWAL accompanying this explosive cyclogenesis. Copious snowfall associated with the TROWAL would likely be juxtaposed with very strong winds and apparent temperatures dropping into the single digits by early Friday afternoon. If this scenario were to pan out, we would be well into blizzard territory by Friday afternoon. This would be followed by a prolonged period of significant lake enhanced snow lasting most, if not all, of Christmas weekend. Obviously, a lot still can change between now and the end of the week. But, we have observed that the entire model suite has been extraordinarily consistent with this system, strongly suggesting greater than average predictability at this time range. The WPC cluster analyses seem more locked into a solution too. To illustrate, the 18/12Z WPC analysis showed cluster 1 alone explaining about 43 percent of the total ensemble spread and its membership is almost entirely ECMWF and Canadian ensemble members. This is not surprising given how much in lockstep these ensembles have been with this system in general. So, there is increased cause for concern, certainly more than there was at this time yesterday. Probabilities for a very impactful system at the end of the week into the holiday weekend are now uncomfortably high. Accordingly, now is the time to start thinking about preparing for this possible scenario.
NWS Chicago is mentioning possible thundersnow for them with this storm. I’m guessing West MI will be under a Winter Storm Watch at the 3:30am forecast package.
Winter storm watches for Chicago now is west Michigan is next?? The 4pm discussion should be interesting stay tuned.. This is developing fast ..INDY
They seem to be trending towards the colder solution. So more snow for Thursday and Thursday night. Also winds could be 57+mph inland.
All I can say is; monitor the updates and get prepared!
…WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT… * WHAT…Blizzard conditions possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 or more inches. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph. * WHERE…Portions of east central, south central and southeast Wisconsin. * WHEN…From Thursday morning through late Friday night. * IMPACTS…Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commutes, particularly from Thursday evening through Friday evening. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. The cold wind chills as low as 25 below zero could… Read more »
The new euro gives west Michigan a all out BLIZZARD Friday morning 7am BLIZZARD warnings coming Thursday get to the store and grab more its going to crazy around here …INDY
Yes it shows rain at the onset quickly changing to snow with very strong winds and likely blizzard conditions.
Torregrossa’s latest:
https://www.mlive.com/weather/2022/12/christmas-week-arctic-front-storm-move-your-travel-plans-to-tuesday-or-wednesday-to-be-safe.html
Grand Rapids is over 43 inches of snow now for the season thats crazy…INDY
Mark Toragrasa Mlive says Blizzard warnings for pretty much west Michigan and southwest Michigan Friday.. Folks in west Michigan I would start preparing now … INDY
Dang it~~ Lansing area better get in this fun! I will be pretty jealous if our area misses out on the “big stuff”. It is our turn also !!
Latest GFS run shows you guys getting in the fun.. especially Friday afternoon stay tuned…INDY
Our locals are calling for a Blizzard on Friday and Saturday now Great Scotty .. could this storm be biggee then the 78 blizzard.?? Stay tuned…INDY
West MI will be seeing a snowstorm with big winds, so get prepared now and mark it down!
The total amount of snow does not always matter to to get blizzard warnings. They certainly are possible if we get a nice period of snow even if it does rain to begin.
Since the 1978 storm I have wondered how today’s models would handle such a event. Sad to say I still am not sure. For some reason the models we now have seem to want to paint a major system then it doesn’t pan out. The only thing I will say is the in the past major December storms did not generally pan out. Yes, we can and do on occasion get a good lake effect in December but generally not a big system snow fall. I can only find 1 for sure and maybe a 2nd major system snow storm… Read more »
The snowblower is (has been) ready to go. We loaded up on groceries yesterday. Our daughter is coming home from college today. We are ready for anything Mather Nature has in mind. I just hope that we don’t get a bunch of freezing precip.
I will second thr frozen precip. That is the worst!!!
Here are the reported snow depths at some of the major reporting locations across Michigan at 7 AM yesterday. Lansing 2” Muskegon 6” Detroit Trace, Flint, and Saginaw 1” Alpena Trace. Houghton Lake 4” Grand Rapids 8” Sault Ste Marie 6” and Marquette 9”. I will not say too much about the expected storm later this week other than saying there looks to be a major system in the area, but it is still Way Too Early to say what any one location will get. Some people are way too concerned about being Warned well I guess you can say… Read more »
Haha, nice Slim. I watched Terri DeBoer’s vid clip this morning. She said that watches may be issued as early as tomorrow. I read Detroit’s and Chicago’s forecast discussion. Not much new information. Still expecting a significant event but as you said, much too early to pinpoint what will fall where and how much.
I read Detroit’s, Chicago’s I also read Milwaukee’s and Cleveland’s. Cleveland is way too far east and they think they have a good chance of being dry slotted. And Milwaukee’s have hinted that the rain snow line will be over Lake Michigan and if the low moves more to the west it could even put them in the “warm” sector and thus there could be rain. So we are still in the uncertain location. As I stated we will just have to wait and see how this plays out. My guess is that the heaver snow will stay to our… Read more »
I agree it’s still a bit early… maybe by the time the afternoon discussion comes out tomorrow I’ll get excited. They DO seem confident that a massive storm will be forming at the very least. It’s just the exact placement. Any 50-100 mile shift makes a big difference.
The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 28/24 there was 0.02” of precipitation and 0.4” of snow fall. There was no sunshine and the official snow fall depth at GRR is a reported 8” I have 12” here in MBY. The current temperature here in MBY is 22. For today the average H/L is 35/24 the record high of 55 was set way back in 1895 and the record low of -18 was set in 1983 the record snow fall amount of 10.8” fell in 2008.
Slim