Yesterday we had a high of 27° and the low was 23° with cloudy skies all day.
Now it is time to start the guessing game of the storm track for the end-of-week storm. A surge of Arctic air behind a cold front crossing the U.S. through the week will bring widespread, dangerous wind chill temperatures through much of the central U.S. and a potential flash freeze from the mid-South to the East Coast. A major winter storm will form on this front bringing heavy snow and high winds creating blizzard conditions for parts of the Plains into the Great Lakes.
As of 6 am this morning there are no watches in SW Michigan with the exception of the extreme southern counties which are under the control of the Indiana NWS. I am sure Grand Rapids will get on board later today.
7-Day Forecast 43.01°N 85.66°W 12 10
Forecast Discussion
- Major Winter Storm Late This Week - A consensus blend of latest medium range guidance continues to indicate that rapid cyclogenesis will occur Thursday night and Friday over our region. This will occur as an upper level trough amplifies sharply and becomes negatively tilted along with a very strong baroclinic gradient. Thermal profiles suggest that a wintry mix of pcpn Thursday afternoon and evening will transition to snow overnight as colder air wraps in on the back side of the rapidly strengthening low. 00Z ecmwf ensemble mean guidance for sfc low locations suggests a low on the order of 980 mb will be located over Lake Huron by 12Z Fri. Much of our latest 00Z guidance including the 00Z deterministic ecmwf... gfs... gdps and nam suggest that around 4 to 8 inches of snow will fall across much of our area by 12Z Fri. This seems reasonable but is still somewhat uncertain given potential for pcpn type issues early in the event and still some uncertainty on exact timing and strength and location of the system. The most significant impacts will come from midday Friday through Friday night as the low continues to strengthen. Heavy snow and very strong winds will lead to blizzard or near blizzard conditions. Near blizzard conditions will potentially continue into Saturday due to continued strong winds and falling temps and lake effect snow. The very strong winds will lead to scattered to potentially numerous power outages with wind gusts most likely peaking in the Friday afternoon through Saturday morning time frame. - Tranquil Wx In The Near Term - A weak low pressure system traversing the Lake Superior region today may bring just a few flurries or very light snow showers to our northern fcst area this morning (accumulations under a half an inch). Tranquil wx is expected through midweek before some light pcpn begins to develop Thursday morning and afternoon well out ahead of the main system.
DssPacket 12 20
Hey Slim –
Blake Hansen said the last time NWS Grand Rapids issued a Blizzard Warning was 02/25/2019. I thought it had been much longer than that.
I just looked up the snow fall totals for that day state wide. Not sure if a Blizzard warning was issued or not but the snow fall totals do NOT support it. Grand Rapids, Muskegon, Houghton Lake only had a inch and Lansing had less than a inch. So unless it was very windy not sure why there was a Blizzard warning. As far as I know it was on February 1-2 2011.
Slim
Here is a link from Mlive showing the counties that had the blizzard warnings. It was in the northern CWA. Not sure how much snow fell or if the criteria was met.
https://www.mlive.com/weather/2019/02/blizzard-warning-now-for-25-counties-in-lower-michigan.html?outputType=amp
Not sure if the criteria was met either. It looks like it might have been a lake effect event as Traverse City did get 11.0″ and Gaylord had 8″ not sure if any location in the GRR forecast area had anything near that. So for the most part our area last B warning was in 2011.
Slim
Not all warnings come to fruition. How many times have winter storm warnings or severe thunderstorm warnings end up shy of true warning criteria? Thanks guys.
Mark, that is very true. Could that happen to this storm? We shall see.
Slim
The lake effect event from the weekend did overperform by about double. Expected 4-8, got 12-17
That was for countys just north of us Slim I remember it …But not for Kent County ….INDY
I’ll be tuning back in during the morning to check for updates… if the track is still consistent then I’ll feel much more confident personally. Very similar track to 78’
I saw a link of a side by side comparison of where the low pressure was located in 78 and where this one could be. Certainly similar in that regard.
The location is similar but the low in 1978 lower. The Low Pressure fell to 956 at Mt Clemens. That was reported to be the 3rd lowest pressure outside of a Hurricane in the US. The current models have the low around 971 to 974 near Lake Huron dropping to 959 to 962 well east of Michigan.
Slim
NWS Detroit did not post watches due to uncertainty of how long it will take to transition from rain/mix to snow in case anyone was curious. Here is a post from them a short time ago “The rain/snow line is right over SE MI to start this event. This will have drastic impacts on snowfall amount depending on rain –> snow transition time (so will the exact placement of the low). The western regions are colder which is higher confidence for snowfall amounts. 3-6 inches of accumulation is a safe estimate at this time, noting that a quick transition to… Read more »
How did my prediction from a week ago work out for a white Christmas for most of MI? Incredible!
Nice low pressure track for heavy snow! The RDB model is all over this and sticks with GR picking up 12 to 18 inches of snow!
You can’t ask for a better storm track for West Michigan that’s for sure
One local TV met calls for 6-10 for us and the other said 6-12.
He quoted a NWS forecaster, saying this will be “a once in a generation event.”
White Christmas baby!
Hey Slim –
Blake Hansen said the last time NWS Grand Rapids issued a Blizzard Warning was 02/25/2019. I thought it had been much longer than that.
I sure hope this plays out for our area big time!!! I am sooo ready for a nice big dump!
I remember that mark I think it was for maybe our northern counties. The last time a blizzard warning was issued for Kent County was 2011 though
-Major winter storm likely to impact the area Later Thursday into Saturday We will issue a winter storm watch for our entire forecast area starting later Thursday afternoon and continuing it into Saturday. We will also mention blizzard conditions possible. Confidence continues to grow on the scale and impact of the winter storm headed our way. Trends with the surface low are slightly east early on. What this means is less of a risk for mixed precipitation Thursday afternoon as it would be a colder solution. For this reason…we will start the watch up 21z Thursday as some impacts are… Read more »
…WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING…
* WHAT…Blizzard conditions possible. Total snow accumulations of
8 to 17 inches possible through Friday. Winds could gust as high
as 55 mph and will cause significant blowing and drifting snow.
Additional heavy snow and high winds are expected into Saturday
with storm total snowfall possibly reaching 2 feet along and
west of US 131 from Kalamazoo northward to Grand Rapids and up
into Big Rapids.
* WHERE…Portions of central, south central, southwest and west
central Michigan.
* WHEN…From Thursday afternoon through Saturday evening.
Blizzard warnings next get prepared now Michigan….. This could be a historic snowstorm….INDY
If this plays out there will be Blizzard warnings. Detroit has not issued a watch of any kind and even their point forecast for the thumb do not indicate that they expect much of a storm not sure why that is the case. And Cleveland is not too impressed with the snow fall totals but are more so with the cold and maybe the wind. So we shall see. OK Detroit now has there discussion out and their thinking is a slower Deeping of the low and smaller flake size thus their thinking is around 3-6 in in the tri… Read more »
Winter Storm Watch:
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=GRR&wwa=winter%20storm%20watch
Wow… up to 2 feet of snow and 55 MPH winds :O
I am eagerly awaiting the forecast discussion for more details.
Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=GRR&issuedby=GRR&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
There is a good chance that a watch will be issued this afternoon. I know some think that they should be issued already but really would that do any good? Just think back to the summer time and watches and warning are issued and then the “storm” comes and not much if anything. But if you want to be warned well you have been informed and that is just like being warned. If this plays out the way it has been hinted at then yes we will have a true winter storm. I am sure there will be watches and… Read more »
Watch A watch is used when the risk of a hazardous weather or hydrologic event has increased significantly, but its occurrence, location, and/or timing is still uncertain. It is intended to provide enough lead time so that those who need to set their plans in motion can do so. A Winter Storm Watch is issued when there is potential for significant or hazardous winter weather within 48 hours, but it doesn’t mean it will occur, it only means it is possible. Warning A warning is issued when a hazardous weather or hydrologic event is occurring, is imminent, or has a… Read more »
They’ve been talking about this since last week. How much more advance notice does one need?
The GRR NWS has a new update on their web page. It is a downloadable PDF… not sure how to link it here. But basically they say:
Thursday night 2-7 inches
Friday 4-8 inches
Saturday-Saturday night a few more inches possible
They also mention 35-50MPH gusts Friday and Friday night.
So a total of around 6-15+ with 35-50MPH gusts.
Edit: Their next briefing will be at 1PM today
https://www.weather.gov/grr/weatherstory
just click on the link. The part you are referring to is Major winter storm for later in the week.
Slim
Winter storm watches during the 1pm discussion which most likely turn into Blizzard warnings Thursday afternoon folks get to the store now make a safe plan now take care of the pets … A major Winter storm is coming..INDY
Trying to prep before the storm. Used the roof rake to pull some snow off, pushed snow off the deck and moving stuff where it will be easy to access.
Should be interesting to see how this goes.
It seems like the system is so large and impactful that even a 50-100 mile wobble in the track would still give us significant impacts. This is definitely becoming a pretty high confidence storm, especially for 2-3 days out still.
As for the winter storm watches… it seems like later today at the 3:30pm update. It would be odd to wait until the day before to warn people, so I’m pretty sure they come out today.
Agree, in fact I think a watch should be in effect right now!
Sometimes they will do random headline updates around 10/11am. I’ve seen them issue headlines around that time in the past. If they don’t do it then they will likely as you said by 3:30 forecast package. I agree one could be in place right now
Yay, we finally get to track a storm. I know better than to ponder a guess. I’m usually incorrect.
NWS Chicago says 6″ is likely throughout their CWA, with NE Illinois possibly getting a foot or more.
Now as to the potential major storm system for later this week! I am still waiting to see how this all plays out. At this time, it sure looks like there will be some kind of major system in our area. The current trends are for the low to stay to our south and southeast and then east northeast. It still in rather close to being overhead. In the 3 biggest storms in my lifetime 1967,1973 and 1978 (all at Bay City) the low was to the SE and there was a northeast wind in all 3 of them. Of… Read more »
Good morning! Yesterday the official H/L at Grand Rapids was 27/22 there was no rain, snow or sunshine. With the ground still warm there is still melting taking place and the snow official snow depth at 7 AM yesterday at GRR was 6” this morning here in MBY it is at 7”. The average H/L for today is 35/24 the record high of 58 was set in 1949 and the record low of -3 was set in 1983 the record snow fall amount of 7.2” fell in 1951.
Slim
>>>>BREAKING WEATHER BULLETIN>>>>A dangerous storm is coming! Make preparations now! The preliminary 6Z RDB model snowfall estimate for GR is 12 to 18 inches with 4 to 5 foot drifts! Stay tuned for later storm track updates and updated RDB estimates!
Thanks for your snow fall amount guess. I see that it is too early for the NWS to list a possible amount.
Slim
Yes, this could be a Big Daddy! We still
need to monitor the track because as you know a 100 mile wobble could change things!
I see mixed totals from the NWS. They said 4-7 Thursday night, 8+ Friday, and “several more” on Saturday in their briefing post. But then in the AFD they only said 4-8 by 12Z Friday. So both of those contradict each other…
Also after the 2 significant LE events we just had, it will need to take a lot more than 4-8 inches to impress me 😀
I think 4-8 by 12Z Friday is just through 7am Friday with more accumulations and wind during the day Friday. That’s the way I take it
Oh good catch, I was thinking 7pm