We added 2.7 inches overnight to the 3 inches we had early yesterday morning which brings us to 9.4 inches for the month and 33.4 inches since November 1st. Areas from South Haven to Grand Rapids received 15 to 19 inches! This goes to show that wind direction is a factor in lake-effect snow depths. Our high yesterday was 27° and the low was 24°.
The lake effect snow machine has wound down this morning and the advisory for the lakeshore counties will expire at 11 am. We will see an occasional snow shower today but nothing like yesterday with expectations of little or no accumulation.
7-Day Forecast 42.53°N 85.65°W 12 18
Forecast Discussion
-- Winter precipitation winding down today -- Given the overall downward trends we are trimming the advisor to the area where precipitation remains. We continue to see poor travel conditions due to accumulations that exceeded a foot in some locations. We also still have a non-zero threat of freezing precipitation. For these reasons, we are hesitant to cancel the entire advisory just yet. We are seeing an uptick in precipitation over northwest Lower Michigan associated with a weak upper PV max and associated surface trough. We do not expect much if any additional accumulations with this activity. Farther south, we continue to see lake effect precipitation that has weakened and become more cellular. Cloud top temperatures in the vicinity and just upstream are at or below -15C suggesting that our freezing drizzle threat will remain limited and snow grains will be the preferred precipitation type. -- Late week storm potential -- At least some type of impactful weather leading into a white Christmas is almost certain at this point. The overarching expectations haven`t changed: a transition to cold and deep cyclonic flow with lake effect / lake enhanced snow by the weekend. While details are still in the air, we do see at least a couple of themes consistently showing up in the ensemble guidance over the last couple days. The general pattern at the onset will be a broad and phased pattern with upper ridging over the west coast and troughing over the east central United States along with an attendant cutoff low in the vicinity of the Great Lakes. The WPC cluster analysis (based on 17/12Z ensemble guidance) shows clusters 1 and 2 representing over 60 percent of the total ensemble spread; these two clusters show that most uncertainty is associated with longitudinal positioning of the trough axis and with whether a leading (and probably negatively tilted) shortwave trough will manifest over the east coast just downstream of the broader trough. Other clusters are latching mostly upon a more southern position of the trough, but these exhibit far less explanatory power with respect to the ensemble suite and are discounted here. The two top clusters help explain why there has tended to be one concentration of possible surface low positions over Lower Michigan and another concentration over the New England area. These different outcomes will influence the onset and intensity of precipitation (best guess now for onset is Wednesday night) and wind. Our best guess for strongest winds is Friday lasting into Saturday. ECE guidance has been showing potential for very strong winds at the lakeshore. For example, the brand new 18/00Z run shows at Benton Harbor a large percentage of members with gusts over 60 mph and many of those members exceed 70 mph. Obviously, how things play out will largely depend on the evolution and track of the surface low. At the risk of going too much into the weeds...many ECE members indicate localized cyclogenesis over southern Lake Michigan in response to a TROWAL orienting over the long axis of the lake. This could certainly induce a lot of latent heat release that cause pressure falls and lake enhanced snow. What seems even more plausible when it comes to lake enhanced snow is significant accumulations over far Southwest Lower for much of next weekend, possibly into Christmas Day, due to a prolonged period of cold, dry air wrapping around the south side of Lake Michigan and inducing a frontogenetic response as spreads northeast and impinges upon the plume of lake modified air that should be in place across much of western Lower MI. Ugly travel conditions should be expected.
There are more and more hints that this weeks storm very well could go to the west of Michigan and we very well could be in the “warm” sector and thus could end up with a lot of rain.
Slim
We will not be seeing mostly rain! While we may see some rain, we will be seeing a snowstorm, so mark it down and get prepared!!!!!!!
Could this be a “Big Daddy”?
This storm very well could go to the west of us and we end up in the “warm” side of the storm and thus we end up with a lot of rain or in the dry slot.
Slim
NWS out of Indianapolis Indiana is talking about this storm with there lastest updates..INDY
Get ready to rock! I am sure it won’t snow in Flint, MI!
NWS Chicago is saying a high impact blizzard the way things look for them. Any minor track adjustments are going to make all the difference with this one. If we can get a long period of snow and wind GR could break the 11 year streak with no blizzard. Time will tell if it’s more of a mix to snow or all snow.
Yea most definitely starting to here the B word in the forecast runs … Stsy tuned..INDY
That’s a good read. What I found fascinating is that the wave that is expected to spawn this system is still north of Alaska at this time.
Wind map has Chicago at 70 mph on Christmas eve … That would put west Michigan in a all out Blizzard.. Blizzard watches coming stay tuned?? INDY
The 12Z GFs is very impressive. To early to get excited yet though lots can change
The 12Z ECMWF has temperatures in the upper 30’s with rain on Thursday. The snow is to our west.
Slim
Models will resolve differences over time. Could be all snow could be rain to start changing to snow with lots of wind. We shall see
I cleared the driveway (got to use the snow blower) and pulled the snow at the edge of the roof down. Now will have to wait for the snow plow to clear the end of the driveway.
Slim
Haven’t needs to use the snowblower yet. I have only used the shovel once.
Record snowfall for Grand rapids wow!! Not bad for such a quiet week and with a possible blizzard on the way GREAT SCOTTY INDY says!! Stay tuned INDY
Craig James is tweeting about a snowstorm that looks like the Blizzard of 78 coming later this week could it be?? I guess when Craig James talk we should listen up ….Let it snow let it snow let it snow…INDY
I remember Craig James. He was an outstanding meteorologist. When he forecasted something big we listened. He was great at forecasting just like Bill is. Nothing compares to the cumulative experience of the Storm team 8 crew imo.
Craig James – I have not heard that name for awhile! We will need the storm track to cooperate and not move too far to the West and them bam! We may need to pull out the big daddy hat and the RDB model snowfall forecast! Wow, just wow!
Also I’m driving to the store and it is currently raining here… a bit weird
Just measured 13.5 inches here for the storm total Friday through 8am Sunday. Definitely quite surprised… now all eyes are on the storm for later this week. It’s pretty clear something is going to happen, but I’ll give it a couple more days for the specifics
With the 13.5 you and the 12.5 I have the 10.4″ GRR has for yesterdays snow fall I wonder what the official snow depth will be for this morning at GRR
Slim
Late Breaking Sports News>>>>it is ridiculous that some of the National sports journalist are talking about the Loins making the playoffs! The Lions will NOT make the playoffs this year. No one took me up on the White Christmas bet, how about betting that the Lions will make playoffs! The Lions will get smoked today at the Jets and have virtually no chance of making the playoffs! As Jim Mora once said “PLAYOFFS! PLAYOFFS!!
Being a Colts fan is no fun either especially after yesterday game in Minneapolis… INDY
I have reported my snow on the ground of 12.5″ on my CoCoRaHs report for today.
Slim
Nice 6 day snow map! If this actually happens watch out and get prepared now!
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?p=snku_acc&rh=2022121806&fh=144
As of this morning there is some spread as to were the SLP will set up. If it is too close then there is a chance of warm air and rain at the start but then there would be even more wind as it lifts NE. Or it could still be a east coast storm or even go to the west of us and we would be on the warm side. So remember there are still a lot of parts that could change. Lets see where thing stand in a day or two. But this has paternal if nothing else.… Read more »
Record snow fall for December 17th at Grand Rapids. There was a new record snow fall amount for Grand Rapids set yesterday with an official snow fall amount of 10.4” Here in MBY I now have 12.5” on the ground. For today the average H/L is 35/24 the record high of 55 was set in 1939 and the record low of -5 was set in 1926. For today the record snow fall amount is 4.0” set in 1951. Grand Rapids had much more snow fall then Muskegon where just 2.3” fell and Lasing with only 0.3” fell. At this time… Read more »
Some pretty impressive snowfall totals in the GR area. Looks to be an inch or two in this area. The side roads were an ice rink yesterday am.
Indy – Sorry your Colts lost. As a Lions fan, I was pulling for them. Look on the bright side, you witnessed NFL history.
The local TV met talked about the forthcoming system for later this.week. Too far out at this point, but it’s worth monitoring.
This storm is only 5 days out so definitely not to early to start talking about and monitoring the trends!
Mark remember a few days ago I told you Lansing would have a white Christmas from system snow, well that is what your local mets are finally mentioning!