Here is where Grand Rapids now stands on some 1st and last so far this fall/winter season. On the 1st side GR has already reached the 1st 32° low back on October 23rd that was later than average but by just 2 days. The first hard freeze of 28 or lower was reached on October 31st that was also just 2 days later than average. With a low of 24 on November GR reached the 1st very hard freeze of 25 or lower that was reached 7 days earlier than average. On the warm side of things the last 80° day or better this fall was on October 4th and that is 4 days later than average. The last 75 or warmer high was on October 24th and that is 10 days later than average. That October 24th was also the last day of 70 or better and that is the average last day of 70 or better. With a high of 66 on November 16th that was probably the last day of 65 or better the average day of the last high of 65 or better is November 5th so this year was later than average. With the most snow fall of 0.4” on October 31 Grand Rapids is yet to have recorded its 1st one inch or more snow fall. That average 1st inch snow fall is November 19th the latest is December 24th 2020. Looking ahead the average 1st 3” snow fall is December 5th In 1949 it did not happen until March 16th the. That was for the winter of 1948/49 that winter the 1st and last 1st 3” snow fall was on the same day. The winter of 1948/49 Grand Rapids only had 33.2” of snow fall. Not every winter season has a 6” snow fall the last time that happened was the winter season of 2018/19. Surprising the winter season of 2018/19 had 81.3” with the most one day snow fall of 5.1” on February 12th 2019. There were several days on 5” of snow fall. And the snow season extended into April with 4.1” on April 14th 2019.
All long-range guess continue to point towards a warmer-dryer winter season. Here is the latest long-range guess for December.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/index.php
Here is the latest long range guess for meteorological winter.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1
Mid winter
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2
and late winter
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=3
My winter guess for Grand Rapids continues to be around 55” (or less) of total snow fall. And Temperatures running +2 (or more) above average.
The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 34/23 (I had a low of 18 here in MBY) there was no snow or rain fall. The highest wind gust of 26 MPH was out of the N. There was 99% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 43/30 the record high of 65 was set in 1908 and the record low of -10 was set in 1950 that -10 is the record low for the month of November at Grand Rapids. The wettest November 25th was in 1979 with 1.39” of rain fall. The largest snowfall of 3.5” fell in 2005 the most on the ground was 8” in 2004. Last year the H/L was 48/32.
A rather active winter forecast looks to take place early next week
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
348 AM EST SAT NOV 25 2023
LATEST UPDATE...
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST SAT NOV 25 2023
-ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY-
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE FORECAST TODAY WITH THICKENING HIGH
CLOUDS. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKESHORE FROM
SOUTHERN OCEANA COUNTY SOUTHWARD AS REFLECTED IN THE LATEST CAM
GUIDANCE. THE LIKELY CAUSE IS A SEEDER-FEEDER EFFECT FROM THE HIGH
CLOUDS OVER LAKE INDUCED CLOUD COVER. MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
GIVEN FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER-THIRTIES.
-SNOW EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE-
SNOW SHOWERS BEGIN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING (AFTER
AROUND 1 AM BEGINNING NORTH AND WEST OF A MUSKEGON TO BIG RAPIDS
LINE) AND WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA BY MID MORNING.
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.
FORCING ARRIVES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE RESULT OF THE PHASING OF
A NORTHERN TROUGH OUT OF CANADA WITH A SOUTHERN TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE MIDWEST OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. STRONG Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP SYNOPTIC FORCING CONTINUES THROUGH
THE DAY DRIVING THE SYNOPTIC PORTION OF THE EVENT. THIS IS PAIRED
WITH COLD THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE -
5C TO -9C RANGE SUNDAY. EVEN AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY, DEWPOINTS BELOW FREEZING WILL ALLOW
WET-BULB COOLING TO OCCUR KEEPING PRECIPITATION AS SNOW.
LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO SNOWFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS IS
WELL REFLECTED IN NAM LOW LEVEL OMEGA AND DEEP LAYER SATURATION
GUIDANCE AS WELL AS CAM REFLECTIVITY PROGS. GIVEN THE FLOW PATTERN,
THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE THIS LAKE ENHANCEMENT ARE THE LAKESHORE
FROM MUSKEGON COUNTY NORTHWARD AND POSSIBLY AS FAR INLAND AS LAKE
AND NEWAYGO COUNTIES.
ONE LIMITING FACTOR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE (EAST OF US31) IS
TEMPERATURES, AS HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER THIRTIES. UNLESS
HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES CAN BE ACHIEVED, THE WARMER GROUND MAY
MITIGATE IMPACTS IN THIS REGION. THE OTHER IMPORTANT FACTOR
TEMPERATURE WISE IS THAT ROAD TEMPERATURES WILL BE INITIALLY BELOW
FREEZING AS LOWS SUNDAY MORNING FALL WELL INTO THE TWENTIES. IF SNOW
CAN BEGIN BEFORE ROADS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING,
TRAVEL IMPACTS MAY BEGIN STARTING SUNDAY MORNING.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS SNOWFALL RATES IN THE 0.1"-0.25" PER HOUR
RANGE ARE LIKELY WITH OCCASIONAL RATES UP TO 0.5" PER HOUR. THIS
TRANSLATES INTO 2-5 INCH SNOW TOTALS FOR AREAS WEST OF US131 AND
EAST OF US31, PARTICULARLY NORTH OF HOLLAND. LOWER AMOUNTS,
GENERALLY IN THE T-2 INCH RANGE, ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE CWA WITH THE LOWEST TOTALS EAST OF I96 AND ALONG THE US127
CORRIDOR. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS
OF THE CWA, HOWEVER ONE WILL NOT BE ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE AND
HEADLINE DECISIONS WILL BE DEFERRED TO THE DAY SHIFT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST SAT NOV 25 2023
- SNOW CONTINUES INTO MONDAY; IMPACTS TO TRAVEL POSSIBLE
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS POTENTIALLY CAUSING IMPACTS TO THE MONDAY MORNING
COMMUTE.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND COOLING 850
TEMPERATURES AROUND -9 C SUNDAY NIGHT TO AROUND -12 C MONDAY WILL
COMBINE WITH LAKE TEMPERATURES AROUND 11 C TO CREATE A PROFILE THAT
WILL SUSTAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION INITIALLY AS THE TROUGH AXIS AND
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WORK THROUGH. OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AN
ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND BETWEEN US 31
AND US 131 WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
WILL BE A BIT BREEZY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW CAUSING ADDITIONAL IMPACTS
TO TRAVEL.
- PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS AN UPPER
LOW LINGERS AROUND HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. EACH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW ON TOP OF THE FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW DUE TO LAKE EFFECT.
ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT, AT THIS TIME WENT WITH NBM POPS TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT THESE MAY
NEED TO BE BUMPED UP AS WE GET CLOSER.
- MODERATING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE LATE WEEK
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING WARMER THURSDAY INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. LOWS HOWEVER REMAIN IN THE 20S
TO LOW 30S WHICH COULD RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION LATER
IN THE WEEK. ENSEMBLES HAVE SOME AGREEMENT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FOR
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING OF WHEN THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH WILL BE KEY TO PRECIPITATION TYPE.
Let it snow let it snow let it snow….INDY
What? A snowstorm and it is not even December yet! Who said cancel winter this year?
Who wouldn’t want snow this time of year? The RDB gives GR a solid 2 root 4 inches of SNOW!! Wow!
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST
MONDAY…
* WHAT…Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 4 inches.
* WHERE…Montcalm, Ottawa and Kent counties.
* WHEN…From 4 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday.
Bring it!!!
..WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST
MONDAY…
* WHAT…Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches.
* WHERE…Mason, Lake, Oceana, Newaygo and Muskegon counties.
* WHEN…From 1 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday.
GO BLUE!!!!!!! Incredible!
Great game!!
The US map will come to no surprise to us older folks:
https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/25/weather/snowfall-temperatures-climate-change-water/index.html
huh, this was my post for tomorrow…
Great minds think alike.
Yet there are still millions of ignorant people that don’t believe that climate change/global warming is real! Wow!
I was going to actually post this earlier haha. Must have caught all our attention
You won’t hear me say this very often:
GO BLUE
Ha ha!!
Go Blue 💙
Accuweather has lost their minds! Yes we will see accumulating snow, however their prediction is off the charts for GR!
https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/grand-rapids/49503/winter-weather-forecast/329374
AccuWeather is almost always wrong with their snowfall predictions. Either way overestimates or underestimates. Although I wouldn’t complain about that 😀
Rock on Nathan!
Lets Go Blue Lets Go Winter weather advisory hail yes!! INDY
Rock on Indy! What a weekend! The Game and mid winter cold, and a WWA with accumulating snow! Who would have thought? Some have already declared no winter or snowstorms this year! In their dreams!
Very cold night last night. Dropped down towards the mid teens as expected. Lawn is sparkly white this morning.
Mid winter cold on Thanksgiving weekend! This is an amazing cold stretch!
>>>>>Breaking Weather News>>>>> Winter storm is imminent, a WWA will be issued, wind chills in the teens and slippery roads! Get prepared now!! Rock n roll will live fore-ever!