We will see humidity on the rise this morning with it the increasing chances of rain showers and the chance of storms. Michigan has a margin risk for the storms being severe this afternoon.
Grand Rapids Forecast
8 11 grrHazardous Weather Outlook
.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Several rounds of thunderstorms will be possible later this morning into tonight. Damaging winds, large hail and locally heavy rainfall will be the main risks. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Another round of thunderstorms with heavy rain will be possible Sunday night into Monday night.
U.S.A and Global Events for August 11th:
1940: A Category 2 hurricane struck the Georgia and South Carolina coast. A 13-foot storm tide was measured along the South Carolina coast, while over 15 inches of rain fell across northern North Carolina. Significant flooding and landslides struck Georgia, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia during the system’s slow trek as a weakening tropical storm, and then as an extratropical cyclone, through the Southeast. The landslides that struck North Carolina were considered a once-in-a-century event. Damages relating to the storm totaled $13 million (1940 USD), and 50 people perished.
1999: An F2 tornado touched down in the metropolitan area of Salt Lake City. The tornado lasted ten minutes and killed one person, injured more than 80 people, and caused more than $170 million in damages. It was the most destructive tornado in Utah’s history and awakened the entire state’s population to the fact that the Beehive State does experience tornadoes.
Forecast Discussion
- Risk for strong/severe storms today into tonight The convective complex tracking into western WI is forecast to move into the CWA later this morning. It will likely weaken as it does given the lack of instability in our CWA. However that changes this afternoon as a south to southwest flow strengthens and advects in a moist airmass. Some uncertainty exists with the heating given the cloud cover but ensemble model forecasts show surface based values to likely top 1000 J/kg this afternoon. Deep layer shear is mostly shown to be 25 to 35 knots so some potential for any redevelopment to organize may exist. This evening the models are actually showing the instability increasing. This is also when the mid level jet arrives. Water vapor imagery shows a compact mid to upper level wave dropping into northwest ND. This is the feature that arrives tonight and is shown to take on a negative tilt in the upper levels. If it can tap into the increasing instability here in the CWA, we may see the strongest convection then, roughly 04z to 08z. Not all models have convection at that time so there is still uncertainty, but we will need to monitor trends closely given the degree of instability and dynamics. Damaging winds would be the main severe weather risk. As for the heavy rain risk, given the rapid movement of any convection, any excessive rain should be localized. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Aug 11 2023 - Showers and Thunderstorms Likely Monday Medium range guidance continues to support a period of active weather on Monday. An impressive 110-120 kt upper level jet digs into the Great Lakes by Monday, while at 500 mb there is a possibility for a closed low to develop, with GEFS/CMC/ECE ensemble guidance indicating 500 mb heights of 2-3 standard deviations below normal as this upper wave deepens. The GEFS is a bit quicker than the CMC and ECE with this wave. The best upper jet divergence is favored across central and northern Lower Michigan with this system. In the lower atmosphere, convergent 850 mb winds are shown in that region as a closed 850 mb low traverses the Lower Peninsula. Models are suggesting the warm front with this low could be located in the vicinity of central Lower Michigan. Near/north of the warm front is where the heaviest and steadiest rain will likely occur, with some thunderstorms possible south of the warm front and ahead of the cold front that will swing through on the back side of the system. At least some elevated instability will be present and possibly surface based too across southern Lower Michigan, with ensemble guidance indicating likely odds for 500 J/kg or greater. Given the anomalous strength of this mid August system, showers and thunderstorms are already looking likely across much of the region. It is really just a matter of timing at this point (as early as late Sunday night or early Monday morning with the earlier GEFS vs. the later CMC/ECE). - Another Storm System Possible Later Next Week Ensemble guidance favors upper troughing to continue into late week with another 500 mb wave dropping down into the Great Lakes as yet another cold front takes aim at the region. However, the timing/strength/location of this feature is uncertain. The deterministic models are indicating the potential for another strong upper level jet of possibly >120 kts to move over the Great Lakes. The amplification at the mid levels is varied between the models, but they all show a pretty strong 850 mb thermal gradient setting up across our region sometime between late Wednesday into late Thursday. There will probably be a period of showers and thunderstorms during this timeframe.
Perry in Shiawassee county was hit by a tornado. I was near town when it occurred. There is plenty of damage mostly tree but some minor structural damage at least that I’ve seen.
Yikes. Perry is 15 minutes from here.
Yeah I was coming home from Detroit and wasn’t expecting to storm chase. I seen the storm as I was coming upon Lansing and followed it to Perry where the tornado then occurred. I have lots of pictures.
Did you get a pic of the tornado itself?
You could see the beautiful wall cloud with a lowering beneath it but with all the hills/trees I couldn’t get the tornado itself.
Video has surfaced of it it’s no doubt a tornado. Someone with a great view over a farm field. It was a rain free base so if you were in just the right spot you would have seen it.
City of Perry has declared a state of emergency. Video in the link.
https://www.wilx.com/2023/08/12/watch-video-captures-funnel-cloud-perry/
That’s definitely not surprising based on velocity returns from earlier. The storms are really rotating this evening
Active evening over here. Four tornado warnings one county away. All off to the NE, E, and SE. All right in the SPC bullseye. Just rain and thunder here.
I’m very surprised that storm NW of Flint didn’t have a tornado warning? Pretty significant rotation and a hook echo
My opinion- tornado will be confirmed for it eventually
Horrendous forecast! One of the worst ever! From 1.5 inches of heavy rain to nort a single drop of rain! Pathetic!
So will the next round out in MN bring us anything?? We haven’t had anything here most of the day just clouds…now get some sun and big puffy clouds. Lol
Earlier this afternoon, we had a five-minute burst of rain and one clap of thunder. Mostly sunny since.
Hopefully, but they will probably fizzle just like the rest of it did today!
Storm proof…
Storm? No!
Heavy rain? No!
Moderate rain . No!
Light rain? No!
Rain showers? No!
Sprinkles? No!
Total 100% rain miss! 2 days ago it gave me 1.5 inches and it still says . 5 inches! Wow!
What is “it?”
The NWS Rockford, MI point forecast! Ridiculous forecast!
Point forecasts have never been very reliable
Wrong!
No one can pinpoint a forecast to a five square mile area. Besides, you complained about the point forecasts on numerous occasions.
Wow!
Midday convective outlook update:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Will we be able to see the meteor shower this weekend? I think it’s this weeked.
This is the weekend. Supposed to be not much moonlight, so hopefully we can see lots of them.
🙂
The official H/L yesterday was 80/63 there was no rain fall and the sun was out a reported 63% of the time. There were 0 HDD’s and 6 CDD’s The highest wind gust was 31 MPH out of the NW. For today the average H/L is 82/62 the record high of 96 was set in 1947 and the record low of 43 was set in 1967. The most rain fall on 1.31” fell in 1941. Last year the H/L was 80/60 and there was a trace of rain fall.
Slim
The next week looks to start off near average and then turn cool and there are several chances of rain. The highs will start off near 80 for the weekend and then drop into the low to mid 70’s for much of next week. Lows with be in the mid 60’s tonight then mostly in the upper 50’s for next week.
Slim
Fantastic day yesterday. 80 with lots of sun and a nice breeze, which seems to be a regular occurrence this summer. My wife and I laid in the hammock under our maple tree and enjoyed a beautiful evening. Everything is still green and lush. I would like this pattern to continue.
There have indeed been a lot of nice days this summer. It is just too bad that summer is so short in our area. But than again summers in Michigan are generally very nice.
Slim
Yes I could definitely get used to this. Comfortable temps (75-85) with low humidity