Keep in mind to take long-range weather predictions with a grain of salt sometimes they change day to day as do the guesses from the CPC. Don’t get excited when snow maps predict several inches of snow a week out it could be a disappointment as you hang your head in shame for going out on a limb. That is why I use the terms “could” and “guess” a lot in this blog. That said, below are the CPC 6 to 10-day guesses. Before you get to excited the 8 to 14-day guesses are the opposite of those below with a mid-month warming trend.
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Yesterday we had a high of 46° and a low of 27.5° with mostly cloudy skies. We have had a high temp this morning at 52° but we will gradually see them drop as the day progresses into the low 40s.
Forecast Discussion
- Fairly quiet mainly dry weather today through Saturday - Overall the weather in the today through Saturday time frame looks pretty quiet. There are some caveats however with a chance for some snow late tonight into Friday. The chance for snow is associated with a small area of isentropic ascent sliding southeast across the area. The time frame for snow is fairly short, there is not much upper support for it and model qpf is mainly light, therefore we do not have higher than chance pops in the forecast at this point. We will be watching this closely though if it trends upward in precip/snow. Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy today with lake effect clouds likely filling back in for most of the area given delta t`s in the lower teens C. Zonal flow will be in place on Saturday with surface high pressure sprawling across the Great Lakes. We should see a fair amount of sun on Saturday. Overall the today through Saturday period will feature uneventful weather. - Strong system expected to move through Sunday into Monday - The uneventful weather does not last long as a strong low looks to be moving through the Great Lakes region late into the weekend into early next week. Precipitation looks to break out Saturday night and into Sunday. The precipitation should trend over to all rain on Sunday as temperatures warm ahead of the low. There is some model disparity in terms of low placement and depth, but the ECMWF is sure interesting with a 986mb low near Whitefish Point on Lake Superior. This would place Southwest Lower Michigan in a zone of strong winds. ECMWF wind gust progs along the lakeshore are already hinting at gusts over 50 mph. The other models do not have lows with the depth that the ECMWF does so we will have to watch trends. The ECMWF, GFS and Canadian though all have some semblance of an organized low moving through the Great Lakes during this time. The precipitation would be transitioning back to all snow Sunday night into Monday as strong cold air advection sweeps in. - Period of lake effect snow early next week behind system - By Monday night we have -17C air over the forecast area which will push delta t`s over the lake to the middle 20s C. Suffice it to say some accumulating lake effect snow is likely. The best chance for lake effect looks to be late Sunday night and Monday. BUFKIT overviews are hinting at decent moisture with a saturated dendritic growth zone. Plenty of time to ascertain whether we see decent snows in this time frame or not. - Another system centered around Tuesday night - Another weak system looks to be sliding through the area Tuesday night. All the main global models have a low or trough moving through the Great Lakes. Precipitation looks to be in the form of snow with air plenty cold enough for it. QPF looks fairly light, so heavy snow is not expected with this system.
Great news>>>>>Nubs Nob will be opening for skiing starting tomorrow!!! It looks like it is time to start planning some ski trips! Who wouldn’t love winter in MI?
https://www.nubsnob.com/conditions-tables/
FACT! Currently we are above average for seasonal snowfall! Absolutely incredible!
Gorgeous day out!! Temps in the 50’s and zero snow on the ground! Doesn’t get much better than this! Keep the warm December ROCKIN!!
It is beautiful outside. At my house it is 50 degrees and sunny. All the snow is gone.
Over 10 inches of snow already in my area off to a good start nice to see the suns out and the blog come alive again lol…So typical this time of year let it snow let it snow let it snow …InDY
Always more snow at Indy’s snow every year – how is that possible? LOL
He has a snow making machine 🙂
It was awesome to see November end up with below normal temps and well above normal snowfall = +35%! Incredible start to winter this year!
Get ready for the snowstorm next week! All signs point towards a snowstorm next week and then a BREIF warm up and then bam, cold and snowy! Get prepared now!
The snow is gone and the sun is shining. Pretty day today.
Phew, December is starting warm! Looks potentially like another big warm up mid December too. I love it! Where is winter?
If the CFSv2 long range guess is correct then the month of December looks to be maybe mild and somewhat wet.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/
There is a chance of a cool down around Christmas week but that is still a long ways off. Brett Anderson at Acculess weather also has it on the mild side until late December so we shall see how this plays out.
Slim
Fortunately the CVSv2 will be wrong! Get ready!
The overnight low here at my house was a mild 45. At this time it is clear and 47. There are some clouds off to the NW. The snow that fell is now of course all gone.
Slim