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Rain Returns to Southern Michigan

Yesterday we reached 65.5° with sunny skies in Otsego – hope you enjoyed it as the weather is going to make a turn back to clouds and rain for the next several days.  Rain showers are likely today through the weekend as a pesky upper low remains entrenched over the Great Lakes.  Temperatures will remain mainly below normal through mid-May according to the CPC.


U.S.A and Global Events for April 28th:

1893: A half-mile-wide estimated F4 tornado killed 23 people and injured 150 as it tore a path of devastation through Cisco, Texas. Every building in the town was either destroyed or severely damaged.

1973: The record crest of the Mississippi River at St. Louis, Missouri was registered at 43.23 feet on this day. This level exceeded the previous 1785 mark by 1.23 feet. This record was broken during the 1993 Flood when the Mississippi River crested at 49.58 feet on August 1st. At Memphis, Tennessee, the Mississippi was over flood stage for 63 days, more than that of the historic 1927 flood, and the river was above flood stage for even longer 107 days at upstream Cairo, Illinois. Out of the seven largest floods on the Mississippi between 1927 and 1997, the 1973 event ranked third in both volume discharged and duration but only sixth in flood height. Over $250 million of damages were incurred mainly in the Mississippi Valley states of Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Louisiana.

1991: Memphis, Tennessee recorded its wettest April ever with 15.03 inches, breaking their previous record of 13.90 inches in 1872.

2002: During the evening hours, a violent F4 tornado carved a 64-mile path across southeast Maryland. The La Plata, Maryland tornado was part of a larger severe weather outbreak that began in the mid-Mississippi Valley early on that day and spread across portions of the Ohio Valley and the Mid-Atlantic States. In Maryland, three deaths and 122 injuries were a direct result of the storm. Property damage exceeded $100 million. Tornadoes along the Atlantic coast are not frequent, and tornadoes of this magnitude are extremely rare. Only six F4 tornadoes have occurred farther north and east of the La Plata storm: Worchester, Massachusetts – 1953; New York/Massachusetts – 1973; Windsor Locks, Connecticut – 1979; five counties in New York – 1989; New Haven, Connecticut – 1989; North Egremont, Massachusetts – 1995. None was as close to the coast. The tornado traveled across the Chesapeake Bay almost to the Atlantic.


Grand Rapids Forecast

428 grr

Kalamazoo Forecast

428 kzo

Forecast Discussion

-- Showers today and tonight --

The pattern remains consistent and persistence is the name of the
game. A relatively shallow upper level trough will drive a mid and
sfc level low northward into the Ohio River valley.
 Bands of precipitation stemming from this system will reach the
I 94 corridor mid to late morning. The latest CAMS have the
easterly flow bringing the bands tilting from the northeast to the
southwest moving northward. Expect these showers to overspread
most of the region along the US 127 corridor south of Mt. Pleasant
and south of Big Rapids thus sparing most if not all the NW. QPF
with this system is fairly light with the highest rainfall
expected in the southeast portion of the state.

The low will move northward and will be engulfed by a deeper and
larger upper level wave moving into from the west overnight Friday
into Saturday


-- Cooler and wet weather ahead Saturday through Tuesday --

The before-mentioned upper level low will move southeastward and
Will dominate the weather pattern from Saturday through Tuesday.

The mid to long range models are fairly consistent. The warm air
that the Friday system advected into Michigan will allow for warm
daytime Saturday temperatures. There will be dry slot that should
allow for some clearing skies Saturday afternoon. That will be
short lived as the barotropic negatively tilted trough brings in
cold air once again into the Great Lakes.

850mb temperatures by Sunday will be around -4C. That cold pool
will remain entrenched over the region through Tuesday. Expect
maximum temperatures to be 15 to 20 degrees below normal.
 With that cold air in place it make snow showers possible though
given the time of year it will be difficult with the best chance
for snow Sunday night into Monday. During this time will be the
best moisture advection with a strong northwesterly gradient.
Couple this with strong Omega advection in the mid to low levels
and some lake effect snow remains possible into Monday morning.
 A wintry mix though remains likely through Monday with the upper
level low finally moving eastward Tuesday.

-- Warm and wet weather the end of next week --

As the upper level low exits the long range models begin to
diverge. Warmer and drier air should move into the region
Wednesday. Temperatures will warm to around normal. However,
showers will once again spring forth as short wave drops down into
the region bringing another chance of rain through the latter
half of next week. There remains some timing and intensity
questions. especially where the best moisture will be.
newest oldest
Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Get ready for wind chills in the 20’s and 30’s on Monday and Tuesday! Incredible May cold!

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

Give me an entire summer full of temps between 81-90 with some humidity! That would be incredible!

Slim

Here in Grand Rapids the record coldest maximum for May 1st is 37 set in 1909 but the forecasted high of 44 would be the 2nd coldest on record. Over all a very cold start to May.
Slim

Slim

We just can not get rid of the mention of snow as there is a chance of snow late Sunday into Monday. Remember Monday is the start of May. Temperatures could be as much as -20 below average on Monday and Tuesday for a very cold start to May. And the expected big warm up could bring temperatures up to average.
Slim

Slim

Yesterday was a very nice late April day with the official H/L of 64/29 there was no rain/snow. The overnight low here in MBY was 41 and at the current time it is 45 and cloudy. For today the average H/L is 63/42 The record high of 83 was set in 1901 and the record low of 24 was set in 1945. Snow fall is becoming rare now and the record amount of 0.9” fell in 1961. The record rain fall of 1.45” fell in 2020. Last year was cold at the end of April with the H/L of 54/28.
Slim

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Get ready for another big cold front! The overall cool pattern is locked in, so get used to it! Wind chills in the 30’s Monday and Tuesday with clouds, wind and some rain! Wow just wow, WOW! Incredible May cold!

Bernie (Hamilton)
Bernie (Hamilton)

Tell me, Rocky, what is it about the prospect of incredible May cold that gets you so excited? Just curious :<)

Slim

The end of April and the start of May will be on the cold side. Not sure why anyone would like.
Slim

Nathan (Forest Hills)
Nathan (Forest Hills)

The only reason I would is if it helped my allergies… but at this point in the season, I’d rather just have nice weather and deal with my allergies

Bernie (Hamilton)
Bernie (Hamilton)

I totally agree Michael. I cannot stand temps over 80 (especially when coupled with increased humidity). I am in my late 50’s and have been this way since my late teens. I just flat out tolerate cold more easily. A lot of folks think that that is because I’m from MN, but southern MN, on average, has warmer, more humid summers than southwest MI. The old saying about being able to add layers when cold is certainly applicable here (a person can only shed so many layers in hot weather before getting arrested LOL!).

Andy W
Andy W

To be honest Bernie, I’m not a fan of hot humid summer days either. Upper 70’s to low 80’s with low humidity is an ideal summer day for me. That’s why I like Spring and fall best with temps in the 60 to 70 degree range.

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Give me 50’s and 60’s and nothing higher! Granted low 40’s with wind is not great weather, but give me that over 80’s and humid!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

2 things! 1. I hate hot weather, so given the choice I always root for below normal temps. 2. A couple people on here are always spewing warm weather hype and propaganda, so I am countering the BS!

Andy W
Andy W

Not sure who Rocky is talking about?? Here was me just last Friday: Andy W Average highs only in the mid 50’s this time of year. Temps in the 50’s and 60’s are OUTSTANDING this time of year!!!! April 21, 2023 1:43 pm And here was Mookie yesterday : Mookie Another picture perfect day today! Reply April 27, 2023 9:35 am Rocky just likes to troll about the cold weather, which is why you see the copy and paste posts on every blog, every day from him. He’s been trolling about the cold weather for the past decade or so… Read more »

Andy W
Andy W

And Bernie, better weather is on the way!! So you just have to deal with a couple of garbage weather days, too bad these crappy weather days happen to fall on the weekend again, but check it out.

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/b523690bfd952b86fef3627c919dd9855281a8da16b83c10bdd381c64ae12cbc