Changes are in the air (literally). We have a warm 72° this morning at 5:30 – enjoy it because it is only going downwards from here. We had .04 of an inch of rain yesterday which brings us to .20 for the month with promises of more today. The higher amounts of precip will fall in the east and southeastern parts of the state where there is a flood watch beginning at 2 pm lasting through Thursday morning.
The National Weather Service in Grand Rapids has issued a * Flood Watch for a portion of south central Michigan, including the following areas, Calhoun, Clinton, Eaton, Ingham, and Jackson. * From 2 PM EDT this afternoon through Thursday morning * Periods of moderate to heavy rain are expected from this afternoon through Thursday morning. Rainfall amounts in some areas may exceed 4 inches. Despite rather dry conditions of late the potential for this magnitude of rainfall over about 36 hours may lead to areal flooding and flooding of smaller creeks and streams. * The potential exists for small stream and creek flooding as well as flooding of low spots where water may cover some roads.
- Heavy rain potential over South Central Lower Michigan We will be issuing a Flood Watch for a portion of South Central Lower Michigan this morning, which will run from 200pm Today through 800am on Thursday. The counties in our area included will be Jackson, Ingham, Calhoun, Eaton and Clinton. The potential exists for heavy rain beginning this afternoon lasting into Wednesday night. Models are consistent in showing a signal for at least 3 inches of rain over these counties. In fact, many of the ECMWF ensemble members are showing at least 4 inches. The HREF max qpf through Wednesday evening has 4-5 inch totals in Jackson. The operational GFS has 5-6 inch totals into Ingham. Bottom line there is more than enough signal for a Flood Watch despite antecedent conditions being on the dry side. The concern is that rain spreads into the area today along and ahead of the front pressing in from the west. Rain will continue along this boundary over the area tonight. Late tonight an upper low forms off to our south. The low then deepens and tracks through our area Wednesday and Wednesday night bringing additional rain. Much of the time an 850mb front will be located over South Central Lower Michigan with isentropic lift sweeping up the pressure surfaces. There should be efficient rain processes ongoing that will really add the totals up over time. Outside of some embedded thunderstorms today into this evening, the bulk of the rain will just be a steady moderate to heavy rain like we would see from a wet fall system (which this one is). Elsewhere across the area will we will see a band of showers and a few storms working through the area today. Rain will occur at times across the rest of the forecast area, but the heaviest and most concentrated will be towards the Lansing and Jackson areas and points to the east. - Rain lingers into the later portions of the work week The upper low that brings all the rain to portions of the state through mid week will pivot to the north out of the area on Thursday and Friday into Ontario. Thursday we will be plenty cold enough aloft that as the winds turn northwest and off of Lake Michigan, we will see lake effect rain showers. The rain showers will likely taper off Thursday night as we warm a bit. Much of Friday will be dry ahead of our next cold front. - Showery fall like weather continues into the weekend Rain showers are expected once again Friday night into Saturday as a cold front works through the area. Saturday behind the front we turn cold enough once again for lake effect rain showers with delta t`s in the middle to upper teens C. Much of the next 7 days will feature active weather and as you would expect this time of year temperatures will be on a bit of a roller coaster.