We had a high temp of 80° and a low of 58° yesterday in Otsego. Today is the midpoint of meteorological summer and yes the daylight is getting shorter, we lost a minute and 25 seconds of daylight yesterday. We still have 15 hours of daylight to enjoy.
Rain showers along with a few thunderstorms are expected to move through Southwest Lower MI today. The best chances for rain today will be near and south of I-96 this afternoon. Severe weather is not anticipated. Skies will be mostly cloudy with highs up around 80 in many areas. Southwest winds of 5 to 15 mph are forecast.
Forecast Discussion
-- Rain arriving today -- Overall guidance has lately exhibited considerable adjustments in regards to precip timing/placement/amounts this weekend, beginning with today. For reference and continuity, an AFD update from Thu evening is retained below (see update section). Recent GOES WV loop shows a vigorous shortwave impulse / vort max diving southeastward over northern MN. Ahead of this feature, a strengthening low-level jet and associated warm theta-e advection have fostered a recent uptick in elevated convection over MN/IA/WI. 00z HREF members exhibit broad agreement in showing a growth in convective coverage/intensity over WI through at least 12z this morning, with a gradual weakening of the most vigorous convection as it continues southeastward today. Nevertheless, much of the forecast area stands to receive at least some rainfall today. A few thunderstorms are possible, but instability will be weak (MUCAPE of 100-300 J/kg), and largely confined to the SW portion of the forecast area. While rainfall is much-needed in many areas, the threat for excessive rainfall fortunately appears limited. HREF 24-h ensemble- mean QPF through 12z Sat suggests that 0.25-0.75 inch should be common generally along/south of I-96, but with swaths of near 2 inches possible, per the LPMM field. As noted previously (see update section), a pronounced north-south rainfall-accumulation gradient is possible. -- Sat and Sun -- Considerable forecast uncertainty exists for the Sat-Sun timeframe, mainly in regards to precip coverage. On Sat, the ECMWF and EPS have trended drier with precip coverage, given subsidence/drying in the wake of departing wave. The GFS and GEFS, on the other hand, are wetter. Chance PoPs will be maintained Sat with this package. On Sat night into Sun night, a weak surface wave is still expected to meander to the south of the forecast area, associated with yet another shortwave impulse aloft. However, the EPS mean has trended southward with the placement of these features, with a corresponding southward displacement in the associated PW plume. EPS QPF exceedance probs have trended markedly lower on Sun. These aforementioned adjustments are not apparent in the GEFS mean, and the GEFS maintains much higher QPF exceedance probs over the forecast area. With this package, chance PoPs will be maintained on Sun (highest over southern Lower Michigan), but have been lowered from previous forecasts. -- Mon and Beyond -- EPS and GEFS means are broadly in agreement in showing a vigorous shortwave trough cresting the western CONUS ridge on Mon and Mon night, with associated cyclogenesis likely occuring over the northern plains. By 18z Wed, the EPS exhibits a mean surface low (sub 1000 mb) in the vicinity of northern Lower Michigan--indeed a deep low for July. Details regarding warm-sector instability and timing of frontal passage will likely remain uncertain for a few days. Nevertheless, this system will likely bring chances for showers/t-storms during the Tue-Wed timeframe.
.UPDATE... Issued at 1040 PM EDT Thu Jul 14 2022 Have increased POPs for Friday afternoon and evening based on 18z/00z model guidance. Upper level jet divergence increases after 12z Friday with a 500 mb shortwave moving through during the afternoon and evening. At 850 mb, a 30-40 kt LLJ develops overnight and into early Friday though there is some question about how far north this gets, which is critical to placement and intensity of rainfall Friday. The 00z HRRR and NAM3km keep the nose of the LLJ centered across southern WI, southern Lake Michigan, and northern IL/IN. Meanwhile, the 18z GFS and ECMWF show the nose of the jet a bit further north...impacting SW Lower MI. Also noted is the rich reservoir of atmospheric moisture available for this warm advection rain event. The 18z ECMWF brings the 2.00" PW contour into SW Lower MI Friday afternoon. Also, the 18z EPS members are unanimously on board for measurable rain along and west of a Pentwater to Jackson line. However, the 00z HRRR and NAM3km suggest a sharp N/S gradient to the rain, leaving some question marks about where the axis of heaviest rain will set up and if some central and northern regions of our forecast area will get very light amounts. There remains a possibility that this axis of heaviest rain could intersect portions of southern WI into SW Lower MI for Friday afternoon/evening with 1"-2" possible, locally more. Will continue assessing the 00z guidance overnight and make adjustments.
Let it snow let it snow let it snow … Its coming yeahhhh INDY
Hot in the UK. All time hot, potentially.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/15/weather/2050-uk-forecast-comes-true-in-2022/index.html
Absolutely pouring at my house! I love it!
No big heat waves sofar thiis Summer for the hottest party of the year its been a cake walk sofar … INDY
Getting some steady rain as we speak! Keep it rocking!
Just another of many near or below normal temp days! What a stretch of cooler summer weather! Incredible!
Cloudy this afternoon with light rain on and off.
82 Wednesday, 81 yesterday. Perfect weather!
Hopefully we can get some much needed rain today. The moderate drought did expand a little bit wider with the Abnormally Dry condition down to about the Lansing area. Beyond this we have to watch out for severe weather next week. We are already in the slight risk area for the Day 5 outlook from the SPC. SPC says: “ Tuesday (day 5). A plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, a reservoir of low-level moisture over parts of the Midwest, agreement/consistency in models showing the strength and evolution of the aforementioned mid-level disturbance, all combine to yield sufficient confidence… Read more »
Yesterday was yet another great summer day in our area. At Grand Rapids the official H/L was 81/61 there was 49% of possible sunshine and there was no rain fall. The overnight low in MBY was 59 and at the current time there are some clouds and 61. The average H/L remains 83/63 the record high of 95 was set in the years of 1995,2006 and 2013 the record low of 47 was set in 1987. There is a good amount of rain is Wisconsin at this time and that is sliding to the SE. So there is a good… Read more »
Yesterday was an ideal summer day, IMO.
C’mon rain!