Our more active weather pattern continues today and more so on Saturday. A few showers and storms will be possible throughout the day, but most of the day will be dry at any one location. The storms could become locally strong with some hail. Additional showers and storms will move in later tonight and Saturday morning (80% chance).
Day One SPC Outlook
Thunderstorms with heavy rain impacted the region Wednesday night. Listed are some observed reports from around the area. Displayed is an estimated rainfall map. The Lansing to Flint area saw the most rainfall from this storm system.
Grand Rapids Forecast
7 14 grrQPF Forecast
U.S.A and Global Events for July 14th:
1995: On the evening of Friday, July 14th, thunderstorms producing severe weather were occurring over Upper Michigan and adjacent portions of Ontario near Sault Saint Marie. By late evening the storms had evolved into a bowing line just northwest of the Mackinac Bridge. At 10:17 PM EDT, the thunderstorm gust front hit the bridge, and a gust of 90 mph was measured. Sustained winds of 80 mph continued on the bridge for ten more minutes. Thus began the intense “Ontario-Adirondacks Derecho” that would cause hundreds of millions of dollars worth of damage, several deaths, and many injuries as it raced southeast from the northern Great Lakes to the Atlantic coast. Click HERE for more information from the Storm Prediction Center.
2006: Tropical Storm Bilis tracks across northern Taiwan before making landfall in southeastern China’s Fujian province with maximum sustained winds near 65 mph. The storm causes at least 575 deaths in Fujian, Guangdong, and Hunan provinces and direct economic losses near $3.3 billion.
Forecast Discussion
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 404 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023 A few areas of shallow dense ground fog early this morning should dissipate quickly after sunrise, as clusters of showers and thunderstorms move in from the west. The storms are driven by a 40 to 50 knot LLJ and elevated instability ahead of a shortwave trough axis that will be moving through today. Upstream storms have been dropping large hail and the threat for elevated cores with hail and downburst wind potential can be expected across the forecast area on this Bastille Day. The CAMs show a diurnal flare up of convection by afternoon and the current POPS reflect that. Scattered, largely disorganized convection continues into this evening in warm advection regime then we could see a cluster of storms and possibly an MCS forming in the vicinity of northern Illinois or Indiana which moves northeast through the forecast area on Saturday with over 30 knots of shear in moist, conditionally unstable airmass with precipitable water of 1.5 inches or more. Severe storms are possible, generally in the form of linear storms with bowing segments bringing strong winds. Legend has it that if it rains on Saint Swithin`s Day (Saturday) it will rain for 40 straight days. Weather records do not support this legend, but the drought pattern does seem to be on the way out with the current pattern of fast westerly flow across the Great Lakes region. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 404 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023 The general pattern that we have seen settle over the area over the last few days, looks like it will continue to hold over much of the next week for the area. This is the result of broad upper troughing over much of the northern CONUS. This means we will see intervals of small rain chances, with a couple of opportunities for higher rain chances right on through next Thursday. We are also looking at temperatures staying around average, or slightly below average for this time of the year. We should see a relative lull in the rain chances at the beginning of the long term Saturday night. This is due to the trough and sfc low moving east of the area after bringing the rain chances on Saturday. That said, rain chances are not zero Saturday night and Sunday with additional small short waves poised to move through. The areas with a little higher rain chances will be eastern areas during the afternoon and evening hours away from the stabilizing effects of Lake Michigan, and with diurnal instability combining with the short waves coming through. We don`t want to get to specific with details too far out in the forecast period given the pattern, and timing/track uncertainty beyond a couple of days. That said, there has been some decent agreement and continuity that a stronger and more organized short wave will rotate in Sunday night and early Monday that would boost rain chances a bit. It does look like the lowest chances of rain during the long term would generally be from Tuesday night into Wednesday night. It is during this time frame that upper heights build a bit between troughs to our west and east. Short waves are still possible to ride through the broad ridge, and keep a chance of rain inland. Then, another broad scale trough will push over the region, and bring back better rain chances and cooler weather.
It sure has been a muggy day. I see we got lots of rain 3″ on Wednesday. The grass sure is greening up. I know my tomato plants love the rain. They grow like weeds! Since last week they have grown so tall.
The latest CPC is a thing of beauty! Below normal temps rule!
What do you know? GR had another below normal temp day today! The pattern is really locked in! Rock n roll baby!
Tornado warning for Lapeer county to our east. Over here it is only in the 70s and a bit cloudy… probably not the best environment for storms atm
Just finished a golf outing in Monroe. 86 hot and humid. Looks like severe weather is coming right down I-94. Think I’ll start heading home and pull over before I reach the storms.
Storm wasn’t that bad. Lots of rain and little lightning. Just got home. 87 and humid here too. Uncomfortable for sure.
Updated Forecast Discussion: .SHORT TERM…(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 230 PM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023 The biggest forecast question for the short term is convection this afternoon, overnight and into Saturday morning. Radar as of 18Z has convection firing east of the US 127 corridor with storms just east of Lansing and north of Jackson. The best area of convection will be through the eastern half of the state. A decent LLJ with 35 to 40kts will stream through SW Michigan this afternoon and evening. The concern will be the coupling of that jet with the instability… Read more »
Looked like not was going to rain here shortly after lunch. Passed us by with nothing.
We picked up a quick .01
SPC PM Update:
…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM EDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL TUSCOLA AND NORTHWESTERN SANILAC COUNTIES…
At 203 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Cass City,
moving east at 20 mph.
HAZARD…60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
SOURCE…Radar indicated.
IMPACT…Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to
roofs, siding, and trees.
This severe storm will be near…
Argyle around 235 PM EDT.
Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include Wilmot,
Decker, Snover and Deford.
* Tornado Warning for… East central Tuscola County in southeastern Michigan… Central Sanilac County in southeastern Michigan… * Until 315 PM EDT. * At 216 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Kingston, or 9 miles north of Marlette, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD…Tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE…Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near… Argyle around 230 PM EDT. Sandusky… Read more »
Air Quality Alerts back again for all of Minnesota, Wisconsin and even the western half of the Upper Peninsula because of smoke from Alberta.
Its been a great Summer sofar lots of below average temperatures starting to get lots of rain and decent sunshine hardly any humidity with cool night’s great for bon fires we are only 70 days away from Fall I love short Summers …INDY
You know it and the facts are the facts! In GR 3 out of the last four months we have seen below normal temps and July is heading in that direction also! Only one mini heat wave and no heat waves in sight! Will we even see another 90 degree in GR this year? Wow, just wow, WOW!
It’s been such a good summer so far. Tons of 90’s and lots of sun and warm water temps!
Sure feels muggy this morning!!
Yes, the dew points have climbed today.
Very hot days and oppressive nights this weekend for Las Vegas, with record to near record highs up to 116 Sunday and lows only falling into the upper 80s to low 90s. An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect today through Tuesday. As a reminder, summertime surfaces can become quite hot, with blacktop reaching 170 degrees, metal 150 degrees, and concrete 145 degrees. See weather.gov/heat for heat safety tips.
Will today end up as yet another below normal temp day in GR! The cool pattern is incredible!
Got a thunderstorm about to move in at my location. Thundering.
The official H/L yesterday was 77/60 there was a trace of rain fall. 4 CDD’s and 42% of possible sunshine. The highest wind guest was 24 MPH out of the N. So far for today the overnight low has been 60 and that is the current temperature as well. The average H/L for today is 83/63 the record high of 102 was set in 1936 and the record low of 45 was set in 1950. The record rain fall amount of 1.22” fell in 1970. The record warmest minimum was 81 set in 1995. Last year the H/L was 81/61.
Slim