These sunny dry days are nice with the exception of all the pollen in the air they are tolerable if one doesn’t mind having puffy eyes and a leaky nose. The past few days have been terrible for allergy sufferers like myself. Antihistamines are the drug of choice pretty much all season long. It is also nearly impossible to keep a clean car. Tomorrow we should see some improvement with a chance of rain to wash everything down.
Yesterday we had a high of 73° and the low was 50°.
The dry weather today will give way to showers for Wednesday. After a mostly sunny day today, the clouds will increase tonight and we will see rain moving in from the west Wednesday morning. The daytime temperatures will also end up a few degrees below normal for this time of the year.
-- Today -- Northwest low-level flow is bringing 0 to 5 C 850 mb temperatures through today. Mostly sunny skies amid upper level ridging and surface high pressure will deepen boundary layer mixing during the day up to the cap around 5,000 feet, where winds to about 20 mph will be mixed down as gusts, less than yesterday. Highs in the 60s are expected, cooler than yesterday also. Fire weather concerns remain elevated given persistent dry conditions in quite a number of locations, afternoon relative humidity percentage dropping into the 30s, and the moderate breeze. Conifer forests in central / west-central Lower Michigan and into northern Lower are most susceptible to fire spread. -- Wednesday -- Shortwave trough(s) moving through quasi-zonal flow and a right entrance region of the upper level jet will make rain likely on Wednesday. The shortwaves at 500 mb appear rather subdued and not well phased, and the models differ in how well developed a surface low becomes as it treks just south of Michigan. However, enough moisture and mid-level frontogenesis should be present for light to moderate rain over much of the area. The HREF, GFS, and ECMWF ensemble members offer a wide range of potential rain amounts for any given location depending on all these factors. Could be a west to east swath of 0.5 to 1 inch of rain somewhere in the lower two-thirds of Michigan, right now the most likely zone would be between I-96 and M-20, but don`t feel very confident in this yet. Dry air in the low levels preceding the arrival of this rain will keep the areas that do receive steadier rain quite chilly, in the upper 40s to mid 50s, while without the rain the temperatures could climb into the 60s. -- Thursday to Friday -- Not wanting to get too confident in the synoptic pattern yet for Thursday to Friday as the 00Z GFS and some of its ensembles have trended toward a less amplified ridge over the Northeast US and Quebec, with the EML plume and greatest instability shifting a little to the south of Michigan and the cold front arriving sooner. Unsure if this is the start of a trend just yet. Nonetheless, the mean solution among the ensembles of the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian has been for the advection of a high plains elevated mixed layer over Michigan on Friday ahead of a southwesterly upper level jet nudging in and a surface cold front sagging through. Near the surface, Gulf moisture should advect in and MLCAPE could build to 1500-3000 J/kg. The strength of the cap would also be a significant factor that would modify the timing and extent of convection. Can`t rule out some convection Thursday night or Friday morning with the warm front. If we stay in the warm sector through Friday afternoon, southwest winds would be rather breezy regardless of convection, and any convective cells or clusters that develop would create locally severe wind gusts and large hail given the strong but fairly unidirectional 0-3 km and 0-6 km shear. If convection develops above the cold front instead, there may still be enough instability for elevated parcels to keep hail as a threat.