Cooler & Breezy Today

We had .10 of an inch of rain late yesterday which brings our monthly total for May to 2.71 inches.  Yesterday we had a high of 78° and the low was 51°.  We begin a brief cool down today through Wednesday.  Skies will become mostly sunny this morning and it will be breezy. An isolated brief thunderstorm is possible this afternoon generally along a line and east of Lansing to Alma. Mild high temperatures in the mid-60s to low 70’s are predicted.  The relatively mild and breezy conditions today along with low humidity levels will lead to an elevated wildfire fire danger risk.

interestingly the Storm Prediction Center has a 15% chance of severe weather for the Friday timeframe.  They generally don’t go that far out on a limb so it will be interesting if this plays out (see the end of the forecast discussion)


Forecast Discussion

-- Dry and breezy today, increased fire weather concerns --

Rain has departed and left amounts generally less than a quarter
inch south of Holland, Grand Rapids, and Alma. Some light showers
north of I-96 early this morning from mid-level clouds won`t
amount to much. It will become dry and mostly sunny with gusty
winds due to diurnal mixing over the land, away from Lake Michigan.

Conditions continue to support the spread of wildfires, mainly in
pine forests and/or locations that have not received much rain in
well over a week. The weather itself today will be close to red
flag warning conditions but likely just short of some criteria,
with west-northwest winds gusting over 20 mph, afternoon humidity
percentages dropping into the 30s and possibly the upper 20s, and
temperatures around 70.

Some of the typical cold spots in Central Michigan north of US-10
may dip into the 30s tonight. A hint of frost there but probably
not much impact.

-- Cool temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday --

Northwest flow will bring the core of coldest 850 mb air through
coinciding with high pressure Tuesday morning. Highs in the low to
mid 60s are now considered below normal at this point in the year
but not significantly so. A fairly zonal upper level pattern
across the northern US will shape up temporarily midweek, and a
shortwave trough moving through the region on Wednesday may touch
off some showers. There is not much instability to work with so
the chance of thunderstorms is low.

-- Warming up Thursday and Friday, chance of thunderstorms --

A strong jet streak translating into the western US will dig a
trough over the intermountain west Thursday into Friday, and in
response ridging and warm air advection over the eastern half of
the US will send temperatures in our area back into the 70s on
Thursday and possibly 80s on Friday. Over the last couple days,
members of the ECMWF, GFS, and Canadian ensembles have shifted to
a more progressive track of the trough, going from a majority
having warm temperatures here through the weekend to a majority
having cooler-than-normal temperatures (50s or lower 60s for
highs) after a Friday night cold front. Ahead of the cold front on
Friday, there is a decent chance of enough instability and shear
to be in place to support severe thunderstorms.

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Mr. Negative
Mr. Negative

Always loved a windy day…

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

75 with a DP of 38 and lots of sun. Gorgeous day today.

INDY
INDY

Check out the last week of May looks to be on the cooler side of things that would be fantastic a nice cool INDY 500 getting excited…INDY

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

Since we missed the eclipse last night, here’s a quick 1 minute video of the whole thing:
https://youtu.be/dhYpaF9E_bY

Slim

I know it was way too cloudy to see the eclipse around here. But today it is nice and sunny.
Slim

Sandy (Hudsonville)
Sandy (Hudsonville)

Thanks.

Mookie
Mookie

Lake Michigan water temps are now above average for this time of year.

Slim

Today water temperature in Lake Michigan is 42.8°F. At this temperature, you can only immerse yourself in water for a few minutes. But it should be remembered that even for trained and seasoned people, this can be dangerous. In any case, the general weather is also important. So, the air temperature at the same time will reach 48°F. The water temperature today is slightly higher than the average on this day in recent years. Its value has rise both over the past 20 days and over the past week. Exactly a year ago, on this day, the water temperature in… Read more »

Mookie
Mookie

I’ve seen 10-20 people fully swim in Lake Michigan already this year.

Slim

I guess that 10 to 20 not very bright people out of 10 million.
Slim

Mookie
Mookie

From two beach days so far. I was in to my waist, myself. Very doable as long as the air temp is 75+ degrees and it’s sunny.

Mookie
Mookie

A few days ago, WOOD was forecasting a high of only 59 for today. At the time, I said it was too cold. It looks like today will actually be in the low 70’s!

Slim

The NWS is now guessing that it may only be in the upper 50’s to near 60 on next Sunday. But yes this week looks to be maybe just a little below the average for this time of May.
Slim

Mookie
Mookie

GR is going for its 8th straight warm day in a row today! May is now +4 degrees above average.

Slim

After a week of nice warm summer like weather (dare I say some would call it hot) we are now back to near to cooler than average few days. There could be a very brief warm up later in the week and maybe a chance of some thunderstorms (severe?) Then back to a cool pattern. Could this up and down be the pattern for the summer time? The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 76/55 and there was officially 0.05″ of rain fall. The overnight low here at my house was 53. At this time it is sunny and… Read more »

Mookie
Mookie

It could also be said that we just had a long hot pattern which could be interrupted by a few cooler days this week before warming up again towards the weekend!

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

It felt hot Saturday on the links. Very little breeze, 87 and humid.

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

It’s nice to be able to give the A/C a break and open the windows.

Slim

In our area Heating Degree Days vastly outnumber Cooling Degree Days. Last year at Grand Rapids there were 6170 HDD and 893 CDD, the average is 6365 HDD and 758CDD. At Lansing last year had 6272 HDD and 695 CDD. The average is 6592 HDD and 695 CDD. So our heat is on much more than our AC is on.
Slim

Mookie
Mookie

I haven’t had to use my AC yet.