We had .10 of an inch of rain late yesterday which brings our monthly total for May to 2.71 inches. Yesterday we had a high of 78° and the low was 51°. We begin a brief cool down today through Wednesday. Skies will become mostly sunny this morning and it will be breezy. An isolated brief thunderstorm is possible this afternoon generally along a line and east of Lansing to Alma. Mild high temperatures in the mid-60s to low 70’s are predicted. The relatively mild and breezy conditions today along with low humidity levels will lead to an elevated wildfire fire danger risk.
interestingly the Storm Prediction Center has a 15% chance of severe weather for the Friday timeframe. They generally don’t go that far out on a limb so it will be interesting if this plays out (see the end of the forecast discussion)
-- Dry and breezy today, increased fire weather concerns -- Rain has departed and left amounts generally less than a quarter inch south of Holland, Grand Rapids, and Alma. Some light showers north of I-96 early this morning from mid-level clouds won`t amount to much. It will become dry and mostly sunny with gusty winds due to diurnal mixing over the land, away from Lake Michigan. Conditions continue to support the spread of wildfires, mainly in pine forests and/or locations that have not received much rain in well over a week. The weather itself today will be close to red flag warning conditions but likely just short of some criteria, with west-northwest winds gusting over 20 mph, afternoon humidity percentages dropping into the 30s and possibly the upper 20s, and temperatures around 70. Some of the typical cold spots in Central Michigan north of US-10 may dip into the 30s tonight. A hint of frost there but probably not much impact. -- Cool temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday -- Northwest flow will bring the core of coldest 850 mb air through coinciding with high pressure Tuesday morning. Highs in the low to mid 60s are now considered below normal at this point in the year but not significantly so. A fairly zonal upper level pattern across the northern US will shape up temporarily midweek, and a shortwave trough moving through the region on Wednesday may touch off some showers. There is not much instability to work with so the chance of thunderstorms is low. -- Warming up Thursday and Friday, chance of thunderstorms -- A strong jet streak translating into the western US will dig a trough over the intermountain west Thursday into Friday, and in response ridging and warm air advection over the eastern half of the US will send temperatures in our area back into the 70s on Thursday and possibly 80s on Friday. Over the last couple days, members of the ECMWF, GFS, and Canadian ensembles have shifted to a more progressive track of the trough, going from a majority having warm temperatures here through the weekend to a majority having cooler-than-normal temperatures (50s or lower 60s for highs) after a Friday night cold front. Ahead of the cold front on Friday, there is a decent chance of enough instability and shear to be in place to support severe thunderstorms.