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These are the CPC guesses through May 17th. Yes, blue means chances of cooler than normal temps, the darker the blue the better the chance. One wonders where this upper-level ridging over Greenland was this past winter. It is unlikely we will see 60° let alone 70 for the rest of the week. Our main concern is overnight low temps dipping below freezing especially north of Grand Rapids.
There is a chance of snow showers Thursday night into early Friday morning and a hard freeze for Friday and Saturday nights so it is not a good time to be doing any planting unless you have a greenhouse.
This is the latest forecast discussion from the NWS:
There is little question this week, and likely beyond that will be colder than normal. Note that the latest CPC 8 to 14 day forecast still has Michigan with a greater than 80 percent chance for below normal temperatures. This is well supported by the MJO being in phase 4 and forecast to weaken as it moves toward Phase 5 in about a week. At this time of year, Phase 4 is cold over the Great Lakes. The MJO would have to get to phase 6 for us to be warmer than normal again. That seems rather unlikely at this point. Looking at our upper air pattern, we have a building upper ridge near Greenland (always a sign of cold weather in Michigan) and developing Omega block from the west coast out to near the Dateline. The result of that is our upper level flow by mid week is from the near the North Pole. As I wrote yesterday, a system currently near the North Pole is forced nearly due south starting Tuesday by both the Omega block near the west coast and the blocking upper high over Greenland. This results in an upper low, centered over Northern Michigan by Friday. While it does move out Saturday afternoon, really it just rotates around and comes back to us Tuesday into Wednesday. This would be a very cold pattern for us, to say the least. This will also be a dry pattern for us since air from the North Pole typically is not overly moist. Still from Friday into Saturday 850 temperatures are forecast to fall to near -10c and closed upper low will be near or over us. That being so, some lake enhanced showers are more than possible. Given how cold the air will be then, more than likely this would mostly be snow showers, possibly snow pellets if it is convective enough. Even with air temperatures in the lower 40s in the afternoon, when the air is that cold what typically happens is when a shower moves overhead, the air temperature drops to the wet bulb temperature, that would be near freezing, so mostly this would just be snow showers. Precipitation amounts would be light through. Our grids show afternoon rain showers but we will likely refine that as the event gets closer.
Meanwhile, my bro in Phoenix is enjoying week No. 2 of a fantastic heat wave, which may extend into next week. He said he has seen clouds in the sky just once in the past month. He is loving it.
I was surprised to see that back in 1992 Phoenix also had a major heat wave is late April into May. As you know the summer of 1992 was one of the coldest on record here in our area.
Slim
Perfect let’s do it again!!! Keep the fires burning…INDY
Currently 57* degrees out at thee YARDofBRICKS NE of GR feels nice and cool outside this weather would be wonderful all of Summer from a wonderful post to a wonderful day ..Ahhhhhh INDY….
What a stretch of perfect weather! Just awesome out again today, reminds me of the crisp, clear mountain air in the Summer. It’s amazing how many ridiculous posts some can make in one day. Get outside and get some sun!
Yup, some just dont get it Barry.
Who would of thought the last 3 blogs would be talking about snow in them in May …Love it!! INDY
What do the years 1903, 1907, 1924, 1917, 1945, 1947. and 1997 have in common? Well they all had either a cold May and record lows in May and all of them had colder than average summers. Well “cooler” than average. Many had frost in Northern lower Michigan and the UP all summer long. But note the following winters some were average and some were warmer than average. But that is the way things go. Do not plant the tomato plants until late May or June this year. and as for the fruit trees?? it depends on how far along… Read more »
Yep…as previously stated, cold with snow year round for the Southern Arctic.
The warm weather fanatics are in denial! We in for a major cool down, with well below normal temps, freezing temps and possible record breaking cold! Get prepared and get used to it!
Dont forgot snow chances in May and yes I have room under the rock for you the cold bias rock we will call it lol….INDY
You said the same thing on Friday instead of talking about the absolutely perfect warm and sunny weekend we just had. What cold bias!
Just the fact, get used to it!
Basically the Greenland is high it’s called the polar vortex yes the polar vortex stays around all year long just not as strong in the summer months but here it comes ..love it Polar vortex in May over west Michigan!! Let hope it’s sits over us all Summer long giving us a cooool Summer forgot the heat 2020….INDY
Sounds awesome! Bring it!
Mid to upper 50’s and sunny today after a weekend of sun and temps in the 70’s. I love it!
Glad we never had the upper level ridging over Greenland all of last Winter, gave us one of the mildest ones we could ever get. Don’t mind it now in May because it makes for perfect hard working weather outdoors. Not much fun splitting wood when it’s 70 or 80 out.
I have to say the blue is much prettyer then the red I’m thinking a quiet blog coming up as we accelerate right into the summer with temps in the 40’s 50’s in the month of May great Scotty I will say …Have a super Fall feeling of a day ..INDY