Get out and enjoy today because the heat and humidity will be back in play for tomorrow. There is a chance of rain showers in Central Michigan today, followed by likely thunderstorms spanning a portion of the lower peninsula tonight into Wednesday morning. It will be hot and humid on Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures near 90° and heat index values as high as 103.
…HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 2 A.M. EDT
THURSDAY…
* WHAT…Heat index values up to 102 are expected.
* WHERE…Portions of south-central and southwest Michigan.
* WHEN…From noon Wednesday to 2 AM EDT Thursday.
* IMPACTS…Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat
illnesses to occur.
U.S.A and Global Events for August 22nd
1893: Four hurricanes are observed in the Atlantic Ocean at the same time. Over a century would pass, 1998 before four hurricanes would again rage together in the Atlantic.
1994: Hurricane John, about 345 miles south of Hilo, Hawaii had winds of 175 mph and pressure at 920 millibars or 27.17 inches of mercury, making it one of the strongest hurricanes ever in the Central Pacific. The 31-day existence made John the longest-lasting tropical cyclone recorded in both the Pacific Ocean and worldwide, surpassing both Hurricane Tina’s previous record in the Pacific of 24 days in the 1992 season and the 1899 San Ciriaco hurricane’s previous world record of 28 days in the 1899 Atlantic season. John was also the farthest-traveling tropical cyclone in both the Pacific Ocean and worldwide, with a distance traveled of 7,165 miles, out-distancing previous record holders Hurricane Fico in the Pacific of 4,700 miles in the 1978 season and Hurricane Faith worldwide of 6,850 miles in the 1966 Atlantic season.
2003: The Okanagan Mountain fire reaches its destructive peak, destroying 250 homes. Nearly 40,000 residents have been evacuated or are on evacuation alert. The Okanagan Mountain Park Fire is estimated to be 17,000 hectares and continues to grow. Click HERE for more information from CBCNews.ca.
1998: The remnants of Hurricane Charley dumped 17.09 inches of rain on Del Rio, TX. More rain fell in one day than normally falls there in a year.
1999: The citizens of Corpus Christi were very shaken when Hurricane Brett, a Category 4 hurricane with top winds of 140 mph, swirled around the Gulf of Mexico picking up steam as it headed toward the Texas coast. As Brett approached the coast, forecasters feared the hurricane would strike the city, but the storm turned west and came ashore in sparsely populated Kenedy County on the early evening of August 22.
Grand Rapids Forecast
8 22 grrSPC Outlooks Day 1, 2 and 3
Forecast Discussion
SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) ...Showers possible this afternoon... Moisture will stream overtop the high pressure system over the central USA into the region today and tomorrow. As moisture from the remnants of Hilary continue to make its way through the upper levels it will begin to affect the Great Lakes region. Ensembles at 700mb show a decent LLJ this morning which will be bringing the anomalous moisture through northern lower. As that LLJ shifts southward it could allow for showers along and just to the south of the US 10 corridor. Dry air aloft will stifle any convection south of that region. That jet and flow will keep warmer temperatures to the southwest. ...Better organized storms Overnight into Wednesday morning... A strong round of convection will stream into the region late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Models are coming into focus as a strong shear associated with a 45 to 50 kt LLJ at 700 mb will allow for convection early Wednesday morning. Latest HREF continues to which will be associated with a stronger LLJ and over 1500 J/kg of CAPE. While the convection is aloft there should be enough of a cold pool that it should initiate convection that potentially could form an organized line. SPC continues to have a portion of the Lower peninsula in a marginal risk of severe. The copious amounts of moisture should lead to PWATs of 1.5 to 2 inches. WPC has lower MI in a marginal risk of Excessive rainfall. The timeframe for biggest concern will be 09Z to 18Z Wednesday. ...Hot and Humid possible Wednesday... Depending on convection any cooling will be short lived as + 25C at 850mb temperatures advect along a warm frontal boundary which coupled with the copious amounts of moisture could bring Heat indices into the low 100`s. As such have issued a heat advisory for Wednesday afternoon for portions of Southwest Michigan. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) -- Precipitation Chances in the Long Term -- The active weather is front loaded in the long term. Much quieter weather is expected at the end of the long term from the weekend into early next week. A front is expected to be situated from west to east across Southwest Lower Michigan both Wednesday night and Thursday. How much precipitation occurs along the front is a bit of a question mark with the ECMWF being more bullish on Thursday in our area. We feel that a better chance for showers and storms exists on Wednesday night as compared to Thursday as the nocturnal jet will be positioned directly overhead with a boundary in place at the surface. On Thursday the low level jet peels southward as does the front. At this point model blends give very small pops on the order of 20-30 pct but feel this will be increased with time especially Wednesday night. Thursday night and Friday look to be primarily dry as the forecast area will be in between cold fronts moving through the area. Friday night another cold front drops in from the north. This front will have less moisture to work with but the small pops that are in the forecast look warranted. A cooler and less humid airmass then works in for the weekend and early next week. Broad high pressure looks to be situated across the area for much of this time frame. 850mb temps from Saturday through Monday are in the lower teens C. -- Potentially Hot Weather on Thursday -- Thursday is the day of concern in the long term for heat. Models are showing mid 20s C air at 850mb Wednesday night into Thursday overhead. We do not see air this warm at 850mb very often. If we were no precipitation/full sun on Thursday we would be well into the 90s, most likely mid to upper 90s. The GFS and ECMWF MOS guidance both have a high of 91 on Thursday most likely due to cloud cover and model precipitation. Given some uncertainty with clouds/precipitation we`re holding off on any heat headline in the south. From I-96 to the south Heat Index values will flirt with 100 degrees which is the criteria for a Heat Advisory. Not enough confidence at this point for that headline.
I see yesterday was yet another normal temp day in GR and today looks to be below normal! What a pattern! Wow, just wow, WOW! Incredible!
If the radar is “legit”…NE of us is getting soaked today.
There is an mPING report for flooding… so likely raining quite a bit
It has been raining most of the day in Mount Pleasant.
That rain has fizzled fast!
Today looks to be a nice day with highs in the upper 70’s there is a warm up on tap. Tomorrow there is a heat advisory for a very warm and humid day. That could be repeated on Thursday but we shall see. The best chance of rain comes tonight into tomorrow then it looks to be mostly dry. There could be a two day mini heat wave before we drop down it near and then below average for the weekend. If you are wondering what the record high is for Thursday it is 98 on back to back years… Read more »
The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 79/63 there were 0 HDD’s and 6 CDD’s there was no rain fall and the sun was out 67% of the time. For today the average H/L is now down to 80/61 the record high of 98 was set in 1936 and the record low of 44 was set in 1894,1897 and 1923. The record rain fall amount of 1.25” fell in 2001. Last year the H/L was 80/63 and there was no rain fall.
Slim