With much excitement, I bring to you a forecast of warm weather to the state for the next few days. Today will be the best day with little or no rain for southern Michigan and temperatures predicted to be in the low to mid-70s and lots of sunshine. Showers return tonight through the rest of the week with a possible thunderstorm to add to the mix. This is the time of the year those nasty stinkbugs try to get into the house for the winter to keep warm. They will generally hang around your doors waiting for it to open so be vigilant.
With Halloween right around the corner, the CPC is showing a regular forecast of cold and wet conditions:
Forecast
Today
A 20 percent chance of showers before 9 am. Sunny, with a high near 74. South southwest wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.
Tonight
A 50 percent chance of showers, mainly after 3 am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 58. South southwest wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph.
Wednesday
Showers, mainly between 9 am and 3 pm. Steady temperature around 61. Breezy, with a south-southwest wind of 14 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. The chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and a quarter of an inch possible.
Wednesday Night
Showers are likely, mainly after 3 a.m. Cloudy, with a low of around 58. South wind 8 to 13 mph. The chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Thursday
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 9 a.m., then a chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70. South southwest wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. The chance of precipitation is 60%.
Thursday Night
Showers, mainly after 9 pm. Low around 60. Breezy. The chance of precipitation is 80%.
Friday
Showers are likely, mainly after 3 p.m. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70. Breezy. The chance of precipitation is 60%.
Friday Night
Showers are likely, mainly before 9 p.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 45.
Saturday
Partly sunny, with a high near 55.
Saturday Night
Showers are likely, mainly after 3 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 41.
Sunday
Showers. Cloudy, with a high near 50.
Sunday Night
Showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 37.
Monday
A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 46.
U.S.A and Global Events for October 24th:
1878: The Gale of 1878 was an intense Category 2 hurricane that was active between October 18 and October 25. It caused extensive damage from Cuba to New England. Believed to be the strongest storm to hit the Washington – Baltimore region since hurricane records began in 1851. Click HERE for more information from the Weather Prediction Center.
Forecast Discussion
Breezy southwesterly winds expected today and Wednesday on the west side of a sprawling eastern CONUS high, which is transporting seasonably warm air and richer moisture through the area ahead of a frontal trough that stretches from the northern Great Lakes to central Plains. Elevated thunderstorms based from moisture within the 850-800 mb layer may roll through northern portions of the CWA later this morning. MUCAPE of 500-750 J/kg distributed from below the hail growth layer and entirely through it, along with some upper level wind shear, may support a threat of larger hail mainly north of US-10 where SPC has outlined a marginal risk. Most HREF member models are focusing subsequent waves of thunderstorms well north of the CWA later today into tonight as the warm front likely surges north, while southern portions of Michigan could maintain partly sunny skies through the day and boost temperatures well into the 70s. Rain becomes likely over much of the area late tonight into much of Wednesday as a restrengthening low-level jet transports moisture toward Michigan from the southern plains. Instability looks more meager during this time frame and QPF is not particularly heavy. - Scattered showers/storms into Wednesday night into Thursday night Moisture will continue to stream into the region Wednesday night as a southwest low level jet strengthens to 40 to 50 knots. PWAT`s climb to over 1.5 inches. The most favorable elevated instability and convergence remains north and west of the CWA. Thus we are anticipating most of the convection to remain scattered in this period. There will be a weakening mid level vort max moving in Thursday so that may play a role in the overall coverage of the convection. How the convection evolves prior to this period will have an influence during this period so we will need to monitor trends closely. - Cold front pushes through Friday afternoon We will need to monitor the warm sector Friday. Strong wind fields will be present so we may see a high shear/low CAPE environment develop during the afternoon. Only limited lift is seen aloft and the area is progged to be on the entrance side of the low level jet which is not the most favorable location for low level lift. Thus some uncertainty exists with the strength of any convection. The winds could turn gusty as it will not take much mixing to generate stronger gusts, especially earlier in the day as a 40 to 50 knot low level jet will be around. - Much cooler for the weekend The surface front slips just south of the CWA Saturday and into Sunday and stalls out. This will allow cooler air to flow in from the north. Meanwhile a wave develops on the stalled out front in the mid MS Valley. Rain will likely spread back into the CWA by Sunday as this feature tracks into Southern Lower MI. Thus we will have falling temps and increasing POPs forecasted for Saturday into Sunday.
Super windy last night. Lost half our leaves on our maple. 78 today. With subfreezing temps yesterday morning, I guess would be our Indian Summer.
I have 77 currently at my house. Beautiful October day. Plus the colors look great today.
Mid 70’s in late October! Wow!
Hopefully everyone gets a chance to go outside today. It sure is nice! Feels like a warm spring day
Getting a very heavy shower at this time. So much for cutting the grass today. 58 with this rain falling.
Slim
Thunder in the Fall means tons of snow after Fall!
Here comes more rain and then another big cold front for the weekend! What a pattern!
Lot of lightning last night, and now it’s thundering and lightning again. My grand parents favorite saying, thunder in the Fall means no snow at all.
Here are a couple of old winter lore from days of old.
Thunder in the fall foretells a cold winter.
If there is thunder in winter, it will snow seven days later.
Slim
Quick question for my flower friends. I have a large potted Mum… should I get it in the ground today?
yes, in the ground before freeze.
Thanks…I will get out there soon!!
Bobi, the world’s oldest dog ever, has died after reaching the almost inconceivable age of 31 years and 165 days, said Guinness World Records (GWR) on Monday.
That is crazy!!!
Here comes more warmth!
The official H/L yesterday was 59/30 there was a trace of rain fall. There were 20 HDD’s and 31% of possible sunshine. The peak gust was 34MPH out of the S. For today the average H/L is 57/40 the record high of 80 was set in 1963 and the record low of 24 was set in 1969. The record rain fall of 2.24” fell in 2001 and the most snow fall of 0.1” fell in 1962. Last year the H/L was a warm 77/58 and there was 0.01” of rain of rain fall.
Slim
While the low here in MBY yesterday AM was 31 and there was widespread frost my tomato plants survived the frost and are still green. My other plants that I still have out are also still green. To have a killing frost it has to get down to around 28 for several hours. But that said there were a lot of leaves blowing off the trees yesterday none the less.
Slim
What? Wet and cold? Incredible!