We had .71 of an inch of rain from our last system in Otsego which brings our October total to 5.83 inches and 8.81 inches for meteorological fall. Yesterday’s high temperature was 53° with lots of much-needed sunshine. Yesterday’s low temperature was 34°. This morning at 6:30 we have a low of 30°.
Clouds will be on the increase today and scattered afternoon showers will start moving in from the west. Southerly winds will persist for much of the week which will result in mild conditions along with several rounds of showers and even a few late-season thunderstorms. Temperatures will exceed 70° tomorrow. The outlook for Halloween looks to be cool and wet with temperatures back around 50°.
Forecast
U.S.A and Global Events for October 23rd:
1091: The earliest known tornado in Britain, possibly the most severe on record, hit central London. The church at St. Mary le Bow was severely damaged. Four rafters, each 26 feet long were driven into the ground with such force that only four feet protruded above the surface. Other churches in the area were also demolished along with over 600 houses.
1878: One of the most severe hurricanes to affect eastern Virginia in the latter half of the 19th century struck on October 23, 1878. This storm moved rapidly northward from the Bahamas on October 22nd and hit the North Carolina coast late that same day moving at a forward speed of 40 to 50 mph. The storm continued northward passing through east central Virginia, Maryland, and eastern Pennsylvania. The barometric pressure fell to 28.78″. The five-minute sustained wind reached 84 mph at Cape Henry. During the heaviest part of the gale, the wind at Kitty Hawk, North Carolina registered 100 mph. The instrument itself has finally blown away and therefore no further record was made. Click HERE for more information from the Weather Prediction Center.
1920: Famed research meteorologist Theodore Fujita, was born on this date in Kitakyushu City, Japan. Fujita, known as “Mr. Tornado” after developing the international standard for measuring tornado severity, also discovered microbursts.
1947: Fish fell from the sky in Marksville, LA. Thousands of fish fell from the sky in an area 1,000 feet long by 80 feet wide possibly due to a waterspout. Click HERE for more information from the Library of Congress.
2015: On this day, Hurricane Patricia became the most powerful tropical cyclone ever measured in the Western Hemisphere as its maximum sustained winds reached an unprecedented 200 mph (320 kph) and its central pressure fell to 879 millibars (25.96 inches of mercury). Hurricane Patricia became the strongest Pacific hurricane on record shortly after midnight CDT early on Oct. 23. Air Force Hurricane Hunters had flown through the eye of Patricia and reported a sea-level pressure of 894 millibars as measured by a dropsonde inside the eye itself. Wind measurements suggested that the pressure measurement was not in the exact center of the eye and was probably not the absolute lowest pressure, prompting NHC to estimate the minimum central pressure at 892 millibars in its special 12:30 a.m. CDT advisory. Tropical cyclone strength comparisons are typically based on minimum central pressure. At 892 millibars, Patricia shattered the Eastern Pacific basin’s previous record of 902 millibars set by Hurricane Linda in 1997. While a number of typhoons in the western North Pacific have been stronger, Patricia is now by far the strongest hurricane on record in any basin where the term “hurricane” applies to tropical cyclones – namely, the central and eastern North Pacific basins and the North Atlantic basin, which includes the North Atlantic Ocean itself plus the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. Click HERE for more information from NASA.
Forecast Discussion
We are starting out early this morning with the continuation of the mostly clear skies that developed yesterday afternoon. We will see this trend reverse today, with clouds on the increase and a few showers developing as early as this morning. These first showers will be the showers that are currently coming into Central WI as of 3 am this morning. These are at the edge of the initial low level jet advecting in a surge of warmer and more moist air aloft. Just about all of the area will see a chance of the showers, but the better chance will be focused up north where the better low level jet dynamics/nose of the low level jet will be located. A chance of thunder will develop later this afternoon and evening. The instability supporting this threat of thunder will be elevated in nature, with the best instability based around 750 mb. This instability comes in near the upper level short wave that is over NW IA as of 3 am this morning. This is forecast to lift ENE, and will focus the best chc of thunder to the north late this afternoon and this evening. The wave moves by, but the rain chances will continue through tonight and first thing Tue morning. Again, the area that will see the best chance of rain and thunder will be up across the north. This is because another low level jet will be translating over the area resulting from the larger scale pattern with the long wave trough over the Upper Plains. This will actually strengthen a warm front and push it north Tue morning. This will keep rain into early Tuesday morning, before ending it for just about all of the area on Tuesday as we get into the warm sector. We should see most locations see sunshine on Tuesday, with temperatures climbing into the 70s. We can not rule out a chance of rain very late Tuesday afternoon with the approach of a wave lifting NE out of the western trough and with some connections to Tropical Storm Norma. This will most likely happen after the short term, and will be addressed in the long term section. - Unsettled Pattern Through the Period A series of low level jets advect abundant moisture in from the southwest Tuesday night into Friday. PWAT anomalies are forecast to exceed 200 percent of normal in this very moist airmass. There will be some elevated instability around as well so a risk for thunderstorms will exist. As a result we are looking at several rounds of showers and thunderstorms. The main baroclinic zone does shift north of the CWA. If this happens, the most frequent showers/storms and overall heaviest qpf will also be north of our CWA. Where this does occur, an increased potential for excessive rain will exist. The ensemble qpf forecasts indicate a slight downward trend in the amounts through Friday. Still, close monitoring will be needed in the coming days. Even into Sunday, the latest High Res Euro is showing another strong low level jet surging into MI along with instability, which could keep the active weather going. Ensemble qpf trends are higher with the Sunday storm.
Good looking lightning to the North
At the end of the forecast on my phone I see a 25 for a low. The colder overnight lows will be back again around Halloween it looks like
It got down to 29 for a low at my house last night. Widespread frost. Coldest morning of the season so far. Should have killed off the mosquitos there were still a ton the past couple days. I drove to Battle Creek early in the AM and hit patches of extremely dense fog in Eaton County.
The Lions were an embarrassment to the NFL yesterday! Horrible defense and non existent offense in the first half!
Heavy frost and freezing temps and more cold and rain coming! WOW! What a pattern!
This “officially” ends the growing season for most locations, especially those that got into the upper 20s last night. We do enter a rather warm stretch of weather the next week though, so we may not be seeing freeing temps again until Halloween.
The official overnight low at GRR was a reported 30 here in MBY I got down to 31 and there is a widespread frost for the 1st time this season.
Slim
The official HL yesterday at Grand Rapids was 53/34 there was no rain or snow fall. The sun was out 56% of the possible time. The highest wind gust was 23 MPH out of the N. For today the average H/L is 58/40 the record high of 83 was set in 1963 and the record low of 19 was set in 1969. The record rain fall of 2.81” was set in 2017 and the record snow fall of 1.0” fell in 1917. Last year the H/L was 75/53 and there was a trace of rain fall
Slim
I came to say the exact same thing. It was 30 here and lots and lots of frost – FINALLY. I hope this slows the growing of my lawn. I’m ready to winterize my mower.