We have a tenth of an inch of snow on the ground this morning in Otsego with a temperature of 31.3° at 4:31 am. An active pattern is taking hold across the Great Lakes with multiple chances for precipitation. A winter storm is still possible Tuesday into Wednesday with snow north and rain/snow south. Additional snow is possible late next week. Highs will be in the 30s. Snowfall for the Tuesday/Wednesday storm could end up being a sloppy mess for Grand Rapids to the south. This will be dependent on the storm track which should become more apparent tomorrow.
Forecast
Weather History
1942: Record cold high temperatures occur as arctic high pressure prevails. The high temperature is only 4 degrees at Grand Rapids and 6 at Muskegon. At Lansing, the thermometer struggles to reach the zero mark during the day, with a frigid northwest wind making it feel even colder
1988: An arctic blast brings several days of sub-zero cold to Lower Michigan, including record lows this morning of 15 below zero at Grand Rapids and 11 below at Muskegon.
On January 7, 2014, Southeast Michigan was amidst a 3-day period of record to near-record cold temperatures. Record lows were recorded at Detroit, Flint, and Saginaw. Detroit and Flint each fell to -14 degrees while Saginaw fell to -11 degrees. The coldest spot in Southeast Michigan was the city of Saline in Washtenaw County which fell to -23 degrees! The high temperature in Detroit on this day reached only -1 making it one of the coldest days on record for the city. Widespread wind chills in the -30s and -40s were recorded.
Also on January 7, 2008, record highs were set across Southeast Michigan. Detroit reached 64, Flint 61, and Saginaw 59. These temperatures were only 3 to 4 degrees off of the all-time January high temperatures. Later in the evening, thunderstorms moved across the region. Some of these storms were severe in Midland, Washtenaw, and Monroe Counties! Since 1986 only two other January have had severe weather, 1990 and 1996.
U.S.A and Global Events for January 7th:
1966: Tropical Cyclone Denise dropped 45 inches of rain on La Reunion Island in the Indian Ocean in 12 hours and 71.80 inches of rain in 48 hours through the 8th.
1989: Empty foundations are all that remain of four homes on the southwest end of Allendale, Illinois after an F4 tornado ripped through. The tornado was extremely rare due to its strength and the fact that it occurred so far north during the middle of meteorological winter.
2008: A rare, EF3 tornado tracked across southeastern Wisconsin. Experiencing a tornado in Wisconsin in January is extremely rare. In fact, it had only happened once between 1950 and 2007, when an F3 tornado affected parts of Green and Rock Counties on January 24, 1967. That tornado in South Central Wisconsin was part of a much larger outbreak of 30 tornadoes across mostly Iowa, Illinois, and Missouri. Wisconsin ended up with 30 tornadoes in 1967. Click HERE for more information from Archive.org.
Forecast Discussion
- Light snow winding down Radar shows light echos covering the cwa and stretching southwest through IL. Visibilities have been a general 1.5-3sm for several hours and that will continue for several more before the weak low over the state moves east. Surface temperatures are currently around freezing which means there may be some slick spots on roads, especially bridges, this morning. The upper trough associated with the surface low will be east of the cwa by 18z and that`s when we`ll see the precipitation diminish. Any additional accumulations will be less than an inch. Cloudy, but dry, conditions are expected tonight and Monday with highs in the mid 30s as we briefing transition to weak ridging ahead of the next winter storm. - Risk for impacts continues late Monday night into Wednesday morning A burst of warm air advection associated with the arrival of the low level jet arrives later Monday night into Tuesday morning. Stronger deep upward vertical motion is seen in the models so this event will likely start off with a period of accumulating snow. The Tuesday morning commute could be treacherous as several inches of snow may fall then. Warmer air up at around 850 mb is still seen to lift northward through the southern half of the CWA Tuesday afternoon which should transition the precipitation over to a mix of rain/snow or just plain rain. Further north that above freezing layer may not reach our northern zones so it should remain mainly snow up there. We could see a lull in the heavier/steady precipitation for part of Tuesday afternoon as a mid level dry slot lifts in. However during the evening and into the night the deepening closed low pulls east of the region. Its associated deformation zone pulls in from the west and that will support an increase in the precipitation once again. All areas will change back to snow and that could support impacts expanding once again into the Wednesday morning commute. Winds will also be on the increase and gusts are likely to top 25 mph. Northern zones will end up with the most snow and impacts with an increased potential for more than 6 inches there. - Clipper low moves in for Thursday Another round of snow related impacts could occur Thursday as a fast moving low pressure system tracks eastward through the area. This system will be negatively tilted in the mid levels so it could feature a period of stronger lift. Thus a period of synoptic snow with some lake enhancement could yield several inches for parts of the area. We will maintain the relatively high POPs for this event. - More impacts looking likely Friday into Saturday A lot of spread exists in the models with regards to the timing however they agree that a strong storm system will track from the Lower MS Valley into the OH Valley region or Central Appalachians during this period. Arctic air will be situated to the northwest of this deep storm and Gulf moisture will get wrapped around it. Thus a swatch of snow will exist on the northwest side of the storm track, possibly into MI with a risk for lake effect on the backside of the departing storm through the weekend. Ensemble snowfall amounts have been trending up with this system.
Breaking Winter Weather Alert>>>>>>>stay tuned for later updates about a HUGE week of winter weather! The warm weather fanatics should go hibernate for months! Winter is back in a big way! Rock n Roll baby!
Get ready for the pattern change and multiple snowstorms! Stay tuned!
Lookin good for snow lovers!
Hopefully we can pick up at least 2 big snowstorms in that time frame! Bring it on!
The RDB model still only shows a whopping 1-3 inch snowfall for GR on Tuesday! The low is too far to the West. Indy had mentioned the B word and he may have been right! Not Blizzard, but BUST! The good news is that the Tuesday storm is only the beginning of the pattern change! We will be seeing storm after storm and cold air for most of this month and maybe longer! WOW, just wow! WOW! Rock n Roll baby!
The 10 day EURO is going crazy! Check it out!
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2024010712&fh=240
From now Through January 15 the Euro outputs 21” of snow for GR. 25” for Kalamazoo. Obviously those numbers will change run to run.
Yes the pattern change is evolving as we speak! Bring it!
Major Lake effect snows coming and a big storm Friday 2 Winter is rocky and INDY is rolling….INDY
Yes, one of these storms is bound to head right at GR and just hammer us with snow! It will be a Rocky Road for the warm weather fanatics when the polar vortex hits with the lake snow you are talking about! It is going to get wild. Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow!!!
The Euro trended north a bit and gives us heavy snow next week. Still to early to know forsure though.
Keep that trend locked in! Could be a big daddy!
Is it just me or does it seem like it’s hard to get a perfect storm track across the heart of the CWA? A lot of time it seems it’s north or south. But then again those north and south of us could have a different thought.
Slim called it! Currently the Tuesday storm is tracking too far to the NE and the next storm is starting to track too far to the SE! Plenty of time monitor the second storm but the first trend is tracking to the SE! Incredible!
The one thing to watch with next weeks system could be the high pressure over southern Canada which could suppress the storm further south. Just something to watch. We have had that issue here before.
Update: the low pressure system is still tracking too far to NE! Stay tuned!
The ground is nice and white here in Otsego – we had an inch of snowfall as of 9 am which brings our total to 10.5 inches since November 1st.
Some of the country roads are very icy this morning. Use caution.
The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 33/28. There was a trace of snowfall before midnight. There was no sunshine once again. For today the average H/L is 32/20 the record high of 63 was wet in 2008 and the record low of -15 was set in 1988. The wettest was in 1907 when 0.59” of rain fell. The most snowfall of 5.4” was in 1962 the most on the ground of 20” was in 1999. Last year the H/L was 32/29 there was a trace of snowfall and a reported 1” on the ground.
Slim
Here in MBY there was 1” of snowfall overnight and there is 1” on the ground. There is light snow falling with a temperature of 32 here in MBY.
Slim
We are still a couple days away, a slight jog to the south is still possible. But does looks most likely that GR-Lansing will get a mix of rain with the system. The end of week systems look interesting for sure with the much colder air
Watch the weekend system go to far to the SE of our area.
Slim
That is definitely a decent possibility!
Local TV met said this morning 1-2” for this area, but a chance for snow almost everyday this week. Now, onto tracking next weekend’s system.
The track of the low is too far NW, so less snow for GR area! Stay tuned for later updates. it could still change!