Today will be the quiet before the storm with highs in the mid-30s and cloudy (of course), snow will develop prior to daybreak Tuesday morning, and change over to rain across southern areas. Snow accumulations are likely, with the highest expected toward Clare where 6+ inches will be possible, to two to three inches toward I-94. All and all this will create a sloppy mess for southwest lower Michigan. The upper lower peninsula has a Winter storm watch for five to nine inches of snow from tomorrow into Wednesday morning.
Forecast
Weather History
1880: Temperatures remain above freezing for the fifth consecutive day during the warmest January on record at Lansing.
1965: Temperatures soar to record highs of 59 degrees at Grand Rapids and Lansing and 55 degrees at Muskegon. A cold front moves through and temperatures will only reach the 20s the next day.
On January 8, 2005, the city of Samaria in Monroe County received 6.0 inches of snow when a snowstorm hit the area.
U.S.A and Global Events for January 8th:
1973: Georgia’s worst ice storm since 1935 occurred from the 7th through the 8th. Freezing rain and sleet began during the early morning hours on Sunday the 7th and ended in most areas on Monday. Total damage was estimated at well over $25 million. The electric power companies suffered losses estimated at $5 million, and telephone companies had another $2 million in damages. Some schools were closed for more than a week. Click HERE to see a video from WAGA-TV Channel 5 on this ice storm.
2019: An unusual January tornado impacted Cortland, Ohio, during the mid-morning hours. The EF-1 tornado developed northeast of Champion Township in Trumbull County and moved east. The tornado brought down numerous trees and wires along the 4.5-mile path. Click HERE for more information from the NWS Office in Cleveland, Ohio.
Forecast Discussion
...Winter Returns Tonight...
We`ve been talking the past several days about a deep low
pressure system headed toward Lower Michigan and that is still on
track to occur.
Low pressure in eastern New Mexico will move northeast across the
Plains and over Chicago before moving across the cwa Tuesday. A
strong feed of moisture from the Gulf will wrap into the storm as
it deepens. We`ll see strong isentropic lift develop tonight after
06z with condensation pressure deficits quickly falling to less
than 10 mb as strong orthogonal lift over the pressure surfaces
quickly saturates the boundary layer. Snow will likely develop
after 06z tonight over the southern cwa and spreads north.
Eventually, warmer air will also arrive near the surface and the
snow will transition to or mix with rain. The question is when and
how much snow will occur before the rain develops.
The Euro and GFS ensemble pressure mean has been fairly consistent
of late and suggests that the low will track from near Chicago to
South Haven the northeast to near Saginaw. North of this track,
the precipitation will be mainly snow. South of the track we`ll
see a snow to rain transition. It`s entirely possible that we
could see several inches of snow accumulation difference between
southern Kent and northern Kent county.
The Euro has consistently been the coldest models and its
ensemble members produce the most snow; the GFS ensembles are
warmer. Interestingly, the 00z HRRR was a bit farther south with
the track of the low and so produces a little more snow.
Tracking the GFS wetbulb zero height gradient would suggest the
rain/snow line reaches Kalamazoo/Lansing around noon Tuesday and
Grand Rapids around 2 PM. There`s roughly a 2k ft difference in
wet bulb zero height between the Euro and the GFS.
Chances for at least 7+ inches of snow are highest over the
northern cwa and we have issued a Winter Storm Watch for the
northern 2 rows of counties. The rest of the cwa looks like
advisory type of snow with accums less than 6 inches.
It`s possible that the snow during Tuesday morning north of I-96
will be heavy at times given the strong lift and will result in
traffic disruptions/hazards. South of I-96 where snow/liquid
ratios are lower, this will likely be a slushy snow that is prone
to be slippery, while north of I-96 the snow will be a bit more
fluffy and accumulate more.
Late Tuesday afternoon, models suggest we could be dry-slotted
over the southern cwa, but the dry air probably won`t reach the
northern cwa which will see some banded-type fgen forcing.
The precipitation won`t taper off until late Tuesday night.
- Bigger storm possible for the end of the week followed by lake
effect
Models are showing a very deep low lifting northeast through eastern
MI Friday into Saturday. The projected 500 mb height anomalies
are considerable. This system shows a coupled upper jet along with
abundant moisture getting drawn into it from the Gulf. Currently
this system is forecast to be several degrees colder than the
current storm and snow would be the favored precipitation type.
Weakness in the stability along with FGEN are shown as well.
Models qpf/snow values are currently high for this event. This
shows up with in the probabilistic precipitation values with
elevated values for a 8 or more inches which is unusual this far
out. Model ensemble 24 hr snow amounts have increased with the
latest runs. Arctic air to the northwest of this system then
spills in through the remainder of the weekend and likely into
early next week, which will add to the snow totals and impacts.
It`s not uncommon for the forecast to change, especially this far
out, but its also uncommon to see this kind of agreement this far
out. So close monitoring will be needed, especially given the
potential impacts.
- Period of snow Wednesday night into early Thursday
A mid level shortwave tracks eastward through the CWA during this
timeframe. Temperatures will be cold enough for this event to be
mainly snow. The flow from the surface through 500 mb will be
cyclonic and low level convergence will be the strongest near and
west of US-131. Moisture is shown to extend up through the DGZ and
some lake moisture may get drawn into this system. As a result, it
looks like several inches of snow will be possible with local
impacts.
I am out shoveling now. Very heavy 4.5” on the ground. Definitely a work out.
What could be better?
1. U of M National Champions!
2. Snow Storm in progress!
3. Big snowstorm on the way!
4. Arctic air in sight!
Wow!!!
Let it snow let it snow INDY
Hail Champions!!!
Hail 💙 INDY
In the news again, probably the last time? Opening day today! Perfect January day with no snow!
https://www.woodtv.com/news/ottawa-county/regulars-happy-to-see-community-restaurant-reopen/
Good to see you got everything re opened, Barry!
Glad to hear that everything is going good. My wife and I will make a trip over there sometime.
Slim
Make sure to stop by the kitchen window. That’s where I’ll be
I saw this on tht news and thought of you!!
That’s awesome, Barry! Very happy for you. The place looks great. I hope to come check it out someday.
Congrats Barry! Gonna have to stop by there this summer!
Who has better then us who NOOOBODY! LETS GO BLUE!! 💙.. iNDY
U of M by 10 points! Mark it down!
GO BLUE!!
GO BLUE INDY!!!!
– Round of Winter Weather Tonight into Wednesday We have a burst of winter weather that is expected to affect the area overnight into Tuesday for most areas. The winter weather will linger a bit longer across Central Lower Michigan stretching into Wednesday morning up there. We have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for all areas with different ending times. The I-94 corridor will be under an advisory from overnight through midday on Tuesday. The I-96 corridor will have the advisory stretch from overnight through Tuesday afternoon. Central Lower Michigan will have an advisory from overnight stretching all the way… Read more »
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY… * WHAT…Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. * WHERE…Portions of central, south central, southwest and west central Michigan. * WHEN…From 3 AM to 4 PM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS…Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS…Snow will spread into the area after midnight. The morning commute on Tuesday will be affected by a heavy wet snow. Expected snow covered and slippery roads Tuesday morning. Rising temperatures on Tuesday will help road conditions as will precipitation… Read more »
Winter weather Advisory…INDY
Who would have thought?
We will be above average snowfall for January by this time next week who would of thought?? LETS GO!! INDY
It is going to be a wild ride! Get ready to rock!
Get ready! We will be placed in a WWA soon! Bring it on!
It’ll be interesting to see how much snow falls tomorrow morning. The NWS forecast of 1-4″ during the morning is a huge spread, 1″ would have little impact, 4″ would have significant impacts since this is our first meaningful snowfall. So we shall see I guess
The RDB gives GR 2- 4 inches, but higher amounts north and West of GR!
That rain snow line is going to be so critical for tomorrows storm system. After looking at the latest 12Z data it almost appears as though the rain snow line is just a touch farther south than earlier runs and will be either right at or just barely north of GR. Totals for Grand Rapids I feel like may be a little tricky to predict with that line so close by.
No doubt, the expected track of the low pressure has moved a little bit to the East! Let’s hope that continues!
It sure will be a wild month! Multiple snowstorms, arctic air, wind and the polar vortex are all on the table! The warm weather nuts are in for a rude awakening! Maybe they should hibernate for a few months! I love it!
It sure has been a blowtorch to start January. And still no snow yet! I love short winters!
Winter storm watch posted north. Looks like we miss out again! Bummer 😉
Anyone find it quite gloomy the past month? I know it’s very typical in Michigan… but this seems a bit excessive. At least we had a sunny October/November
Yes but it will help to get tons of fresh snow! Bring it!
It’s been very cloudy and doesn’t look like the cloudy conditions will change anytime soon!
This is going to be wild and an epic pattern change! Not only do you need to get your snowblowers tuned up, you need to get your winter travel emergency kit prepared, learn how to drive on slippery roads again, get your best cold weather gear ready, etc, etc, etc!! Incredible winter is now on tap! Get ready to party on!
What? You mean the blowtorch wasn’t going to last all winter? Who would have thought?
Who knew and the warm weather fantasies are just delusions as usual! Happens every year! Incredible!
This week we will see at least one WWA and one WSW and 3 separate snow events! Get prepared now!!!
The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 36/30 the day started out with 1” of snow on the ground here in MBY that melted quickly. Officially there was 0.5” of pricp and 0.3” of snowfall. There was no sunshine. For today the average H/L is 31/20 the record high of 59 was set in 1965 and the record low of -13 was set in 1988. The wettest was 0.74” in 1937 the most snowfall was 5.2” in 2015. The most on the ground was 20” in 1999. Last year the H/L was 32/28.
Slim
We are now 7 days into January and the warmth has continued the mean at Grand Rapids for the week was 31.3° that is +5.1 the highest so far is 36 and the lowest so far is 24. Over at Lansing the mean there so far is 29.9 that is a departure of +4.7 the highest so far is 35 and the lowest is 22. At Muskegon the mean is a very mild 34.4 that is a departure of +6.4. the warmest so far has been 39 and the lowest is just 29.
Slim
The morning commute tomorrow certainly looks like a sloppy one. Going to be slow going. It will be interesting to see where the rain/snow line ultimately sets up.
In regards to the late week system, models are actually in relatively good agreement at this stage at showing a big time storm. However, we need to take a couple steps back before getting excited because the track could and likely will change.
Even though the track will likely change it is definitely time to get excited and fired up! The late week storm could be epic and a pattern change is imminent!
Forget about above normal temps and get ready for real winter! It is going to be a wild and likely a record breaking week! Rock n roll will live forever and who wouldn’t want snow in January in MI!!!!! I love snowy winters!
I have never seen a 16 day snow map show these huge totals for the GR area ever. This is not a prediction, just a model depiction of how drastic the pattern change will be! Get your snowblowers tuned up and get ready to Rock n Roll!!! Incredible!
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024010806&fh=384
>>>>>>>BREAKING WINTER WEATHER ALERT>>>>>>>>BREAKING WEATHER ALERT>>>>>>>
1. The Tuesday low pressure is now trending to the southeast, meaning higher snow chances!
2. The 6 z RDB gives GR 2 to 4 inches of snow and a lot more from Northern Kent county North!
3. Huge snowstorm expected for Wes MI late week into the weekend!
4. Arctic air will sweep in this weekend!
5. Huge lake effect snow chances ramp up as the week and weekend progress!
6. Possible huge 10 day snow totals for West MI! WOW, WOW! WOW!