First, Prayers for the people in the Lewiston/Auburn Maine area – this is a college town not far from where I used to live. Eighteen died and thirteen were injured in the mass shooting.
We have 64° at 6 a.m. this morning giving us a summer-like early morning. A cold front will push through the area later this afternoon. A brief shower or thunderstorm will accompany the passage of this front. Thus the warm weather today will turn to cooler weather through the weekend and into next week. We will likely see several rounds of precipitation as this transition occurs. Temperatures tomorrow will be 20° cooler and we will see it cool to 40° by Monday. Tuesday is predicted to bring our first snowshowers of the season.
Forecast
U.S.A and Global Events for October 27th:
1913: At least three people died, and more than a hundred people were injured when the Abercynon Tornado struck an area from Edwardsville to Cilfynydd in South Wales. Click HERE for more information from BBC.
2006: An F1 tornado (waterspout) came ashore and caused significant damage on the west side of Apalachicola Florida. Click HERE for more information from the NWS Office in Tallahassee.
Forecast Discussion
- Strong storms possible this afternoon It appears that the cold front arrival this afternoon will be slightly delayed. This will allow for the development of greater diurnal convective instability than previously expected. MUCAPE in excess of 1000 J per kg is now advertised over far southwest Lower MI this afternoon per the 27/00Z HRRR. Multiple CAM sources such as the HRRR, FV3, and ARW indicate more a discrete storm mode ahead of the front. The HRRR even indicates a couple of notable updraft helicity rotation tracks; this makes sense given expected favorable deep layer shear. But, as noted in both the previous AFD and in the latest SPC SWODY1 discussion issued early this morning, this activity will be a bit out of phase with upper support and thus there is understandable reluctance on the part of SPC to upgrade this area to a Marginal Risk just yet. The later arrival of the front also means a later departure with precipitation finally exiting the Jackson area around midnight tonight. This will be followed by northwest flow and cold/dry advection that will last through Saturday. - Occasional Rain later Saturday night through Sunday Overall the pattern has not changed much with a surface wave tracking up the OH Valley during this time and a strengthening upper level jet over the Great Lakes Region. Our CWA is shown to be in the right entrance region of this jet which will help to draw moisture up into the area. Moisture and temperature overviews show the DGZ moistening up and some lift is noted as well. At times though the DGZ unsaturated. Commonly this leads to a pattern of occasional rain which is what we will forecast. The southern half of the CWA, mainly along and south of Interstate 96 is shown to stay moist in the low levels while further north some dry air advects in from the north, which will play a role in coverage and duration of the precipitation. - Risk for snow Tuesday Forecast soundings for KGRR from the GFS show the inversion height almost to the -30 deg C level and saturated conditions below for Tuesday morning. Stronger lift is progged as well. Surface temps are shown to be in the low to mid 30`s. Lake induced CAPE is looking impressive as well. As for the other models, they have a similar setup. Ensemble snow forecasts from the models show most members with measurable snow and there is considerable spread with the amounts. The deterministic models are coming into better agreement with the handling of the mid level trough digging in from the northwest Tuesday so we will raise the POPs to account for this. How much impacts we will see will likely be determined by the temperatures. They will be the lowest in the morning so the Tuesday morning commute will need to be monitored closely.
Sheesh, 75 and humid. here this afternoon. It certainly doesn’t feel like the end of October. This week has been amazing. No kidding.
We’ve had dew points in the 60’s this week which is higher than our daily highs, and like Slim noted below, record high low temps coming in over 20 degrees above average. I wouldn’t be surprised to see more weather like this in the coming months having a strong El Niño in place.
Get ready for a BIG cold front! Incredible cold is coming!
The official low of 61 yesterday set a new record for the warmest minimum for any October 26th the high was 68. There was 0.61” of rain fall and a reported 1% of sunshine. For today the average H/L is 56/39 the record high is 78 set in 1927 and the record low of 19 was set in 1976 the record snow fall for the date and month is 8.2” in 1967. Last year the H/L was 52/29.
Slim
It was a very warm night for a October night and new record warm minimums were set at Grand Rapids, Lansing with 61, Muskegon and Holland 63. To the east new record warm minimums were set at Flint 61 and Saginaw 60 Detroit had the 2nd warmest for any October 26th with a low of 60.
Slim
I second Michael in my thoughts and prayers for those victims and families, as well as the family of the shooter.
Sounds like tomorrow may be the “best” day for getting outside to view the fall colors.
Yet another sad day here in in our country. There have just been too many.
Slim
Sad, yes, but it will keep happening at an alarming rate. The USA has the highest gun per capita of any county in the World (highest by far!) It is quite simple, the more guns = the more gun violence! The most assault weapons in the World = the most mass murders in the World! It will never change, so get used to it!