A triple dip La Nina
At this point it looks like the upcoming winter will a have so called triple dip La Nina. What that means is it will be the 3rd winter in a row with La Nina conditions. Now what will that mean for the winter season? Well back in their September 15th long range guess the CPC is thinking that the winter months of December thru February will be near average in temperatures and wetter.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=3
Now remember that was last month’s guess there will be a new guess coming out next Thursday will see if that changes. Accuweather also has their long range guess (sort of) and in looking at their “free site” the best I can come up with is that they really have no idea. Well, here is what they do have. According to their chief meteorologist Paul Pastelok here in our area we should have a mild start to the winter with above average temperatures in December with a chance of some colder shots in January (really?) for the winter we look to be wetter but with near average snow fall. Not much to go by in either long range guess. Remember Accuweather is mostly a east coast weather forecasting item and they just touch on our area.
Now getting back on that La Nina three peat. Going back to 1950 I can only find 3 times when there was a La Nina three peat. And that was in 1973/74, 1974/75, 1975/76. Again in 1998/99, 1999,00, 2000/01. And 2005/06, 2007,08, 2008/09. I am sure there were others before 1950 but that is as far back as the good reporting on El Nino and La Nina goes. Now as we all know there are no two seasons that are the same and one can not guess the next season by looking at the ones from the past right? If long range guessing was that simple we all could do it. Anyway in looking at the 3rd and last winter season of the 3 past La Nina three peats here is a brief recap of those winter seasons at Grand Rapids.
The winter of 1975/76. The fall of 1975 was mild with above average temperatures in both October and November there was 6.6” of snow fall in November. December and January were cold and snowy. February was mild with little snow fall. For the winter the snow fall total was 69.2”.
The winter of 2000/01. The fall of 2000 seen October above average temperatures but that gave way to much colder and snowier November with a departure of -2.5 and 23.0” of snow fall. December was colder yet with a departure of -11.4 and there was a whopping 59.2” of snow fall. January and February with near average +0.7 January and -0.8 for February but both months seen very little total snowfall with just 4.1” in January and 7.4” in February. For the season a total of 98.1” fell but most of that was in November and December.
The winter of 2008/09. In the last of the known past 3 peats the fall months of October and November were colder than average with October at -1.6 and November at -1.0 there was 10.0” of snow fall in November. December was cold with a departure of -4.2 and there was 54.6” of snow fall. January was very cold (-7.3) and there was 29.9” of snow fall. February was above average (+1) and there was 10.0″ of snow fall. For the season the winter of 2008/09 there was 104.9” of snow fall.
We can now set back and see how (and if) this winter so called triple dip La Nina plays out. Will we have a lot of snow like we did in 2008/09 or a lot of snow in the fall/early winter like we did the winter of 2000/01 when most of the snow fell in November and December with little snow in January and February. Or a overall near average winter like the one in 1975/76.? As always we shall see.
Slim
Love snow in October better then 90’s yeahhhh INDY
Just a short note that MV’s post is up. It is just not front and center. So just click on the next post link above.
Slim
I went to Saugatuck today. Colors were really nice, plenty of people going to pick apples and pumpkins. It was quite windy and the waves were pretty rough. Looks like some gale winds possible Monday.
All signs point towards above average snowfall this year! Stay tuned for the official RDB model snowfall prediction!
We are certainly due for a cold and snowy winter. We shall see how it plays out.
In my lifetime I think the most brutal winter I’ve seen was 2013-2014. It’s was a relentless bombarding of snow. I measured 30” of snow on the ground at one point where I lived in Byron Center and we had snow piles above the mailbox with just the mailbox door showing. Have never seen snow piles that high since.
I think Portland schools were closed Monday thru Friday one week during that winter.
*overdue
There, fixed it for ya. 🙂
Yeah the case can be made that we are overdue. But we shall see.
Slim
The winter of 2013/14 was indeed one of the snowiest on record in much of lower Michigan. At Grand Rapids that winter 116.0″ fell. At Muskegon there was 132.7″ and at Lansing it was 69.1″ The most snow on the ground was a reported 27″ at Muskegon, 24″ at Grand Rapids and 19″ at Lansing. The record snowiest winters at Grand Rapids are 132.0″ at the NWS office. A reported 144.2 at the old downtown office both in the winter of 1951/52. At Muskegon 173.9 in 1981/82. At Lansing 97.2″ way back in the winter of 1880/81.
Slim
That was an awesome winter and the polar vortex paid us a visit!
Thanks Slim. How many Winters in a row have we been below average in snow now? I would guess 3 or 4 as it’s been a while since we’ve had much snow with the mild Decembers we’ve been having.
At Grand Rapids it has been 3 years. Lansing was above average last year, Muskegon it has been 4 years. Holland for some reason dose not keep snow fall amounts. The the east of here Flint and Detroit were above average last winter Saginaw has a spotty record but they had below average the last two winters.
Slim
Good morning. The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 53/38, there was officially 0.18” of rain fall no snow fall was reported and the sun was out 23% of the time. The overnight low and current temperature here in MBY has now fallen to 36 with some clearing. For today the average H/L has now dropped to 61/42. The record high of 85 was set in 1897, 1899 and 1947. The record low of 23 was set in 1944. The record snow fall of a trace was set in 1983 and 2006. Last year it was 67/51 and there… Read more »