Wow, time is sure flying by it just seems like yesterday it was the 1st day of the new year and now it is late June and Monday with be the 1st of July. At Grand Rapids July in most years is the warmest month of the year. That was not the case in 2009 when both June and August were warmer. In 1947, 1900, 1937 and 1959 August was warmer than July. In the case of 1947 August was much warmer that year July had a mean of just 69.1 but August had a mean of 77.1.
The average 30 year mean at Grand Rapids is 72.8 with 3.86” of rain fall. The average H/L is stable at 82.8/61.7 on the 1st and 82.5/62.6 on the 31st. The warmest days on average are between the 9th and the 16th with a average H/L of 83.4/62.7. The 15-year average is warmer with the average mean being 73.5 with the daily average H/L of 82.8/62.0 on the 1st and 83.6/63.2 on the 31st the warmest days are between the 15th to the 22nd with a average a H/L of 84.3/63.6. The 15-year average July rain fall is 3.84”. The warmest means for July are 79.7 in 1921. 79.2 in 2012. 78.7 in 1916. 78.1 in 1901. 77.3 in 1936. Honorable mention goes to 2011 with a mean of 77.0. The coldest means for July are 67.1 in 2009. 67.2 in 1992. 68.1 in 1950. 68.2 in 1996. And 68.4 in 2014. The driest Julys are 0.40” in 1934. 0.46” in 1934. 0.54” in 1898. 0.56” in 1951 and 0.66” in 1930. There has been a total of 13 years when less than 1” of rain fell at Grand Rapids, the last time was in 1976. The wettest Julys are 1992 with 8.83”. 1950 with 8.42”. 1994 with 80.7”. 1912 with 7.47” 1917 with 6.91” honorable mention goes to 2006 with 6.90”. The record hottest day was 108 on July 13, 1936, it was also 106 on July 12th that same year. A high of 104 was also recorded in 2012 and 1934 for the hottest days ever recorded at Grand Rapids. On average there are 5 days of 90 or better in July with the most being 18 in 2012 there have been 12 years of 0 days of 90 or better in July the last time was July 2021. On average there are 11 days of 86 or better in July with the most 27 in 2012 and 1921. In 2009 and 2000 there were no days of 86 or better. The record low for July is 41 on July 6th, 1983. Over the years it had gotten down into the 40’s in 75 Julys. The last time that happened was in 2005. Last year the mean at Grand Rapids was 71.9, that was a departure of -0.9 there was just one day of 90° or better that was the 91 on the 5th the low for the month was 55 on the 9th There was a total of 5.77” of rainfall.
Here are some top 5 July’s
The warmest July’s
- 79.7 1921
- 79.1 2012
- 78.7 1916
- 78.1 1901
- 77.3 1936
Coolest
- 67.1 2009
- 67.2 1992
- 68.1 1950
- 68.2 1996
- 68.4 2014
Wettest
- 8.83 1992
- 8.42 1950
- 8.07 1994
- 7.47 1912
- 6.17 1916
Driest
- 0.40 1934
- 0.46 1939
- 0.54 1898
- 0.56 1951
- 0.56 1930
The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 72/59 there was 0.02” of rainfall the sun was out 13% of the time. The highest wind gust was 24 MPH out of the S. For today the average H/L is 83/61 the record high of 97 was set in 1913 the coldest high was 61 in 1943 the record low of 43 was set in 1943 the warmest low of 76 was set in 1931 the most rainfall of 1.47” fell in 1979. Last year the H/L was 88/62 and there was 0.87” of rainfall. The overnight low here in MBY was 68 and there was 0.40” of rainfall. At the current time it is cloud and 68.
There is a Flood Advisory for part of the area.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
341 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2024
KEY MESSAGES
– LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN BEFORE SUNRISE THIS MORNING
– LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING
– WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK
– RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2024
– LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN BEFORE SUNRISE THIS MORNING
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DESCENDS INTO THE REGION AND A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. PREFRONTAL SURGE IN MOISTURE AS ALREADY PUSHED SURFACE
DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. CERTAINLY A MOIST ENVIRONMENT
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PWATS AROUND 2+ INCHES. AS MENTIONED IN THE
AFD UPDATE LAST EVENING, THE 00Z HRRR PAINTED A 4+ INCH NARROW SWATH
OF RAIN RIGHT ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR. FORTUNATELY RECENT RUNS HAVE
NOT CONTINUED THAT 4+ INCH TREND, BUT NEARLY ALL SUBSEQUENT RUNS
HAVE ADVERTISED THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS WITHIN THE I-96 TO I-
94 CORRIDORS TO GET UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE 00Z SPC HREF PROBABILITY MATCHED MEAN SUPPORTS THIS EXPECTATION
WHILE PAINTING A FEW SWATHS OF 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF LOWER MICHIGAN BETWEEN 2AM TO 8AM THIS MORNING.
MRMS 3 HOUR QPE ALREADY HIGHLIGHTS AREAS IN ALLEGAN WITH RECEIVING
A SWATH OF 1 INCH RAINFALL, AND WITH MORE HEAVY RAIN ON THE WAY
WE WILL BE MONITORING FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD HEADLINES THIS MORNING.
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS CLUSTER OF SHOWERS,
BUT HIGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND LOW INSTABILITY EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL PUT A HAMPER ON SEVERE POTENTIAL. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST BEFORE CIN ERODES AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY
RECOVERS.
– LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING
MORE ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
DIURNAL INSTABILITY REBOUNDS INTO THIS AFTERNOON WHILE 500MPH WINDS
BUILD OVERHEAD SUPPORTING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. NOTING ENOUGH KINEMATICS
TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD
FRONT, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG THE FRONT. DUE TO THE COLD FRONT BEING ESTIMATED TO
SWEEP THROUGH NEAR TO AFTER 00Z, ENOUGH OF A CAP MAY BEGIN TO
DEVELOP TO LIMIT TOO MUCH ACTIVITY THE FURTHER SOUTH IT PROGRESSES,
THOUGH THERE ARE SOME SUSPICIOUS LOOKING SOUNDINGS THAT SAY
OTHERWISE. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ADVERTISE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE BUT STILL WORTH
MONITORING.
– WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK
HIGH PRESSURE AT 850 MB WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION TO START THE DAY MONDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN WILL KEEP THE COOL AIR IN PLACE ON MONDAY WITH THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH OVERHEAD AS SHOWN BY THE MODELS. ENSEMBLE
TEMPERATURE GRAPHS REFLECT THIS COOLER AIRMASS WITH MAX
TEMPERATURE VALUES STAYING IN 70’S. HOWEVER THE 850 MB HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION THEN PERSISTS THROUGH
TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURES PLOTS SHOW A
STEADY WARMUP FOR THIS PERIOD WITH MAX TEMPERATURE VALUES
RETURNING TO NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.
– RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MODELS ARE SAGGING A COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION LATER TUESDAY AND
INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE’S SOME UNCERTAINTY IF THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA OR NOT. THEY DO SHOW THE PWAT’S CLIMBING BACK UP
TOWARDS 2 INCHES LATER TUESDAY ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY. GIVEN
THE MOISTURE, LIFT AND INSTABILITY, IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME STORMS
WILL BE TRACKING TOWARDS THE CWA AS THAT FRONT SAGS IN OUR
DIRECTION LATER TUESDAY. NORTHWEST ZONES, INCLUDING THE LUDINGTON
AREA WILL FEATURE THE HIGHEST POP’S. FURTHER SOUTHEAST, GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH, WE WILL TAPER THE POPS
OFF WITH JACKSON FEATURING THE LOWEST POP’S. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE
24 HR QPF VALUES FROM THE GFS AND CMC SHOW A DECREASE IN THE
VALUES BUT THE DO SUGGESTS A FAIRLY HIGH PROBABILITY FOR
PRECIPITATION AS MOST MEMBERS SHOW SOME QPF.
Detailed Forecast For Grand Rapids
Overnight
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. South wind around 9 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Saturday
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 9am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 82. Southwest wind 10 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 56. Northwest wind around 9 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 72. North northwest wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
Sunday Night
Clear, with a low around 48. North northwest wind 5 to 9 mph becoming light north after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 78.
Monday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59.
Tuesday
A chance of showers after 8am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81.
Tuesday Night
Showers likely, with thunderstorms also possible after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70.
Wednesday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8am, then a chance of showers between 8am and 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 83.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 67.
Independence Day
A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 84.
Thursday Night
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66.
Friday
A chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 84.
Another wet start today. 1.46 inches of rain fell this morning bringing our total for the month to 6 inches. Our high yesterday was 75 and the low was 57. Our current temp is 72 muggy degrees.
It was nice not to water all of our outdoor plants…
And here in NE Montcalm it is still dry. All this rain has been dropping everywhere, but we seem to be barely get any- with only an inch after all these storms.